Topic updates
State of the UK Economy (November 2016)
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Geoff Riley
21st November 2016
This is a sixty-slide revision presentation on the state of the UK economy five months on from the June 23rd Brexit vote.
Overview:
- Post-Brexit impact yet to fully materialize in the macro data
- Inflation is back with rising commodity prices and a weaker currency since June 2016
- Labour market performance remains strong
- But scale of UK current account deficit is a problem
- Structural weaknesses on the UK supply-side are unlikely to be resolved soon despite renewed focus on infrastructure and industrial policy in the new May/Hammond government
- Productivity and skills gaps hurt UK competitiveness
- Risk is that Brexit will lower the UK’s trend growth rate if the economy is not “match-fit” post 2019
- Lots of external uncertainties as we head into 2017
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