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In the News

The global economic centre of gravity will continue to shift after the crisis

Geoff Riley

7th April 2020

Today's article of choice considers how the centre of gravity has been changing in the world economy.

Drawing on earlier work from economists such as Danny Quah (Formerly at the LSE and now Professor of Economics at the National University of Singapore) I was interested to read this piece by Reuter's John Kemp: China and the world economy's shifting centre of gravity.

He writes that "All methods show the centre of gravity shifting progressively eastwards from just inside the western hemisphere in the 1980s to well inside the eastern hemisphere by the 2010s." and then details some salient statistics on the scale of China's impact on global economic activity.

China now accounts for 40% of global manufacturing, 18% of world travel and tourism (now dramatically halted) and 30% of the market for new vehicles.

Will the global economic crisis usher in a fresh wave of protectionist policies and broader support for economic nationalism threatening to bring about more de-globalisation?

Economic growth has come to a juddering halt for the moment but the longer-term trends and the bigger picture are unmistakable. China contributed 28 per cent of world GDP growth between 2013 and 2018.

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Geoff Riley

Geoff Riley FRSA has been teaching Economics for over thirty years. He has over twenty years experience as Head of Economics at leading schools. He writes extensively and is a contributor and presenter on CPD conferences in the UK and overseas.

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