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Demographic Economics - Explaining Falling Birth Rates

Geoff Riley

15th June 2026

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This FT video considers some of the reasons behind falling birth rates in a majority of countries around the world. The drop is happening across many different types of societies.

The global decline in birth rates represents a profound demographic shift. According to the latest UN World Population Prospects and recent Lancet projections, the global total fertility rate (TFR) has halved from roughly five births per woman in the 1950s to an average of 2.2 today.

Currently, over 70% of the world's population lives in countries where fertility has slipped below the 2.1 replacement level required to naturally maintain a stable population size.

  • Opportunity Costs: As female participation in higher education and the labour market has surged globally, the opportunity cost of having children has risen. People are increasingly delaying couple formation to establish careers, which inherently narrows the biological window for childbirth.
  • Financial Pressures: The soaring costs of housing, childcare, and education have fundamentally altered the calculus of family planning. Younger generations face persistent high living costs and stagnant real wage growth, making raising larger families financially prohibitive.
  • Healthcare and Education: In developing economies, improved access to modern contraception and sustained investments in girls’ education remain the primary catalysts for tumbling birth rates.
  • Future Uncertainty: Mounting anxieties regarding climate change, geopolitical instability, and long-term economic prospects are leading many prospective parents to rethink or entirely delay having children
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Geoff Riley

Geoff Riley FRSA has been teaching Economics for nearly forty years. He has over twenty years experience as Head of Economics at leading schools. He writes extensively and is a contributor and presenter on CPD and Revision conferences in the UK and overseas.