In this second blog devoted to Scottish independence, we will be turning our attention to the nature of the debate on this issue. Both nationalists and unionist can advance a range of persuasive arguments supporting their position and this is one reason why Scottish independence is likely to remain a live political issue for the foreseeable future, certainly in the period leading up to the 2026 Scottish parliament elections as both sides seek to maximise the number of sympathetic MSPs returned to Holyrood on polling day. The Find Out Now poll of April 2025 (referred to in the previous blog) found that the pro-independence parties are on course to secure a 29-seat majority at the next Scottish parliament elections. If this actually happens, then Scottish independence will be firmly back on the political agenda and the following nationalist and unionist arguments will be extensively scrutinized in the media.

Arguments in favour of Scottish independence

1. EU Membership

The 2016 EU referendum has given the case for independence a further dimension since Scotland, with a 62 per cent remain vote, bucked the overall UK and English trend to opt to leave (52 per cent and 53.4 per cent respectively). Consequently, Scottish nationalists have argued that Brexit has been foisted on Scotland against the Scottish population’s expressed will. This has galvanized the case for independence since 2016 with the Scottish Social Attitudes survey and the Scottish Centre for Social Research noting that ‘on most issues, voters are more likely to think that Scotland would be better off inside the EU but outside the UK, than inside the UK but outside the EU.’ If it secured independence and separation from England, Scotland could negotiate to become an EU member and gain access to the EU single market and benefit from the free movement of labour, goods, services and capital.

2. Self-determination

Arguably, the most compelling argument for Scottish independence focuses on self-determination (which obviously goes to the heart of the Brexit issue for many Scots). Although Scotland has some autonomy under the present devolution arrangements, an independent Scottish administration would be able to legislate over constitutional affairs, health, energy, the environment and immigration, and pursue its own defence, social security and foreign policies. The Scottish government has produced a series of Building a New Scotland reports offering a blueprint for a fully autonomous Scotland with a new constitution, a Scottish currency, an independent Scottish central bank and revised employment law.

3. Vote Left Get Right

Since 2011, the SNP has been the dominant political force in Scotland, forming governments following the Holyrood elections in 2011, 2016 and 2021. Over the same period, the UK has elected Conservative or Tory coalition governments (2010, 2015, 2017 and 2019) which received little support from the Scottish electorate and have not been popular in policy terms north of the border. This has allowed nationalists to argue that Scotland has a political identity further to the left than England and should be free from the constraints imposed by a Westminster Tory government determined to preserve the union when it attracts little backing from Scottish voters. The rise of right-wing unionist Reform under Nigel Farage is also likely to be exploited by Scottish nationalist to reinforce the message ‘Vote Left Get Right’.

Arguments against Scottish independence

1. EU Membership

Opponents of Scottish independence have pointed out that it is far from a foregone conclusion that Scotland will be able to become an EU member. A key reason for this uncertainty is that European governments dealing with their own separatist challenges will probably be unwilling to accept an independent Scotland in the EU because such a move would provide a template to energize their separatist movements. Spain, for example, has indicated it would be opposed to Scotland’s membership of the EU because of concerns about the impact it would have on Catalonian separatism. Others have argued that the Scottish nationalists’ position here is fundamentally inconsistent because the latter are campaigning to remove Westminster control only for a newly independent Scotland to defer to the EU.

2. Economic matters

Supporters of the union frequently deploy economic arguments to undermine the case for independence, notably the critical importance to Scotland of the UK internal market. The rest of the UK is Scotland’s largest trading partner (accounting for 61 per cent of Scottish imports in 2021) and, in money terms, takes over three times the exports Scotland sends to the EU. Furthermore, according to the Economics Observatory, EU membership would not economically compensate Scotland for the increased border costs with the rest of the UK if a hard trade border was enforced. Opponents also question the economic viability of an independent Scotland given that, in 2023-24, Scotland had a net fiscal deficit of £22.7 billion or 10.4 per cent of GDP, whereas the corresponding figure for the UK overall was 4.5 per cent of GDP. Scotland also benefits from the union due to the Barnett Formula (which redistributes wealth through the UK), a mechanism that ensures that the Scottish population receives £2,417 more per head of additional spending than the UK average.

3. Diminished global presence and influence

Temporarily at least, an independent Scotland would lose its links to transnational organizations such as the UN Security Council, the G7, the G20, NATO and the Five Eyes international security network, which it currently has by being part of the UK, significantly reducing its global influence. Moreover, it is unlikely that, once outside of the UK, Scotland would be able to gain access to these organizations easily. It has also been argued that a Scottish breakaway would have a ripple effect, diminishing the reduced UK’s standing in the world too. Furthermore, the increased security threats posed by Russia’s military aggression in Ukraine and the USA’s effective withdrawal from Europe under Donald Trump have served to undermine the Scottish independence movement’s longstanding opposition to nuclear weapons and power. Recent polls have revealed that most Scots want to retain the nuclear deterrent and think that being part of the UK gives them greater security and influence.