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Zombie economies and threats to EU stability

Geoff Riley

6th April 2009

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Sean O’Grady writes about the financial fragility of the eastern European economy in his Independent column - I produced a short revision presentation this last week available here - and describes Turkey, Ukraine, Serbia, Latvia, Romania as zombie states “in the process of receiving IMF assistance to rescue their finances. More will surely follow.”

A key point to take away from the article is the varying extent to which countries inside the EU single market are dependent on trade as a source of income for their circular flow. O’Grady writes that

“The Germans are top among the older established large economies; 30 per cent of their income derives from exports. In Japan it is a surprisingly low 10 per cent: in the US and UK around 15 per cent. Now consider how much eastern Europe relies on exports. The Czechs’ reliance on exports – 80 per cent of GDP – makes most countries look isolationist. The Hungarians and Poles are also heavily reliant on trade. So the 13 per cent decline in world trade predicted by the OECD will have a potentially devastating impact on those already bruised economies.”

This makes it even more important for the EU authorities to be strong in preventing a descent into protectionism within Europe’s boundaries.

The FT today reports that the IMF is encouraging eastern European states to join the euro

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Geoff Riley

Geoff Riley FRSA has been teaching Economics for nearly forty years. He has over twenty years experience as Head of Economics at leading schools. He writes extensively and is a contributor and presenter on CPD and Revision conferences in the UK and overseas.