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Tim Harford on the art of prediction

Geoff Riley

6th September 2014

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A great video to use in the classroom as a prompt for discussion. Bad forecasts matter - they affect millions of people. Why are forecasters so bad at their jobs? Complexity is fundamental and when forecasters are also prone to bias when making their projections. Is there hope for better forecasting from a group known as the super-forecasters who seem to be uncannily good at making predictions?Watch the video below

Link to follow to Tim's article on forecasting when it becomes available on his web site

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Geoff Riley

Geoff Riley FRSA has been teaching Economics for nearly forty years. He has over twenty years experience as Head of Economics at leading schools. He writes extensively and is a contributor and presenter on CPD and Revision conferences in the UK and overseas.

@tutor2uGeoff

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