Economists in the United States pay a lot of attention to the monthly payroll numbers and the latest set of figures are being taken as a sign that recession is more or less a done deal in the USA.

Total payroll employment fell by 63,000 thousand (seasonally adjusted) in January 2008 the largest fall for nearly five years. The labour shake-out in construction has been going on for over a year as our chart shows. And the number of manufacturing jobs has declined by almost four million since the turn of the decade. But the retail trade is also started to bear the brunt of the drop in consumer confidence and the slump in the housing sector. We are keeping a close eye on the US economy on the Tutor2u blog because it is a great way of deepening understanding of the dynamics of economic cycles, the impact of domestic and external shocks – and also how macro policy can perhaps achieve a softer-landing for the US than many expect.

David Smith: Britain shivers as US hits recession