How will Trump's 10% baseline tariff shake up the UK economy in 2025? In this video, we dive into the latest external shock to global trade – a sweeping new tariff policy from the United States – and explore the direct and indirect impacts on UK exports, jobs, inflation, and long-term economic confidence. Here is a new short video alongside a downloadable powerpoint.

📢 KEY TAKEAWAYS:

Trump's 2025 tariffs are a universal 10% baseline, with the UK exposed due to high-value exports like cars (£6.4bn in 2023).

UK exports to the US = only 2.2% of UK GDP, but some sectors are highly dependent.

Services (2/3 of UK exports to the US) are less exposed... for now.

A US inflation spike (+2.2pp) could raise costs for UK importers and consumers.

Retaliation by the UK could increase cost-push inflation and harm UK households.

Global effects include falling commodity prices, dumping, and a hit to business confidence.

Financial market volatility (VIX) is a key metric to watch for economic uncertainty.