Bayes Theorem and the risks of anti-body tests

Geoff Riley

8th April 2020

What are the risks of using a less-than-perfect antibody test? The question has an Oxbridge Economics interview quality to it!

In fact this question has been used before and it so pertinent to the debate over when the UK government among others might opt to roll our an antibody test perhaps as a prelude to people being able to carry immunity certificates on their smart phone.

My article of the day comes from Tom Chivers who uses Bayes Theorem to describe the alarming consequences of a less-than-perfect antibody test.

Please read: https://unherd.com/2020/04/how-far-away-are-immunity-passports/

Geoff Riley

Geoff Riley FRSA has been teaching Economics for over thirty years. He has over twenty years experience as Head of Economics at leading schools. He writes extensively and is a contributor and presenter on CPD conferences in the UK and overseas.

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