Momentum

Momentum is the term used to describe the situation during the primary season where a candidate wins successive states in great numbers. The theory suggests that if a candidate wins a primary such as Iowa, they will have an advantage in the next state’s primary. This process is then repeated in each state, the more states that candidate wins the greater advantage they have in the next.

How does the theory work?

At the start of the primary process typically in Iowa, all the candidates battle to top the poll in an effort to start the momentum behind them. Once this first primary has happened, candidates will then focus on the next primary. In this primary the candidate who won the last primary has an advantage, as they will have had a large free media exposure from their campaign win in the previous primary, and donations will have come their way as people start to back candidates they think will win. This free news coverage and increased donations allow the candidate to start with an advantage in the next primary. If the candidate starts winning the early primaries consistently they are said to have momentum. Candidates will seek to have the momentum going into Super Tuesday. Super Tuesday is the day that most states hold their primary races. If a candidate has the momentum going into Super Tuesday, they will hope to do well.

Momentum is just a theory and in practice a candidate may win the early primaries and still end up losing overall.

2012 Republican Primary Race

The list below shows the order of the 2012 primaries for the Republicans and who won them.

• Iowa – Rick Santorum
• New Hampshire – Mitt Romney
• South Carolina – Newt Gingrich
• Florida – Mitt Romney
• Nevada – Mitt Romney
• Colorado – Rick Santorum
• Minnesota – Rick Santorum
• Missouri – Rick Santorum
• Maine – Mitt Romney
• Arizona – Mitt Romney
• Michigan – Mitt Romney
• Wyoming – Mitt Romney
• Washington – Mitt Romney

Going into Super Tuesday, Romney had won 8, Santorum 4 and Gingrich 1. On Super Tuesday, Romney won 6 states, Santorum 3 and Gingrich 1. From this it is possible to say that Romney has the momentum, which ultimately helped him obtain the Republican nomination.