low voter turnout - a threat to democracy in the uk?
The strength of enthusiasm for and engagement with the democratic process in Britain is vital to sustaining a healthy representative democracy. Voter turnout is measured by the percentage of eligible voters who actually cast their vote in elections for various levels of government.
The turnout at UK General Elections since 1945 is shown in the chart below
Turnout peaks at 82% in 1950 - but the long term trend in voter participation has been downwards. By 1983, turnout was doen to 72% - and despite an improvement in participation in both 1987 and 1992 (when the closeness of the battle prompted more voters to cast their vote) - the last two general elections has seen a sharp fall in turnout. 2001 may be seen in future years to have been a watershed. The overall level of turnout across the United Kingdom collapsed from 71% in 1997 to 59.3% in 2001.
In some parliamentary constituencies, turnout fell to incredibly low levels. In Liverpool Riverside only one third of voters bothered to vote. The chart above shows the seats with the smallest turnouts in the 2001 general election. Notice how all of them are in urban areas (all of them returned Labour MPs).The highest turnout in June 2001came in Winchester with 72.3%.
The factors that determine voter participation in particular constituencies
Turnout is affected by several factors
The social/economic mix of the electorate: Voter turnout tends to be lower in areas of above average unemployment, below-average incomes and higher rates of economic and social inactivity. These tend to be rock-solid Labour seats - but even the Labour Party in 2001 (and to a lesser degree in 1997) struggled to get their core voters out in these constituencies. Clearly, hundreds of thousands of these voters feel totally disengaged from mainstream politics (at local and national level).
Perceived importance of the election: Turnout tends to be strongest when, at a national level, the election is seen as being of special political significance or when local political issues are of sufficient salience to draw out voters from all parties. When the result is seen as more or less a foregone conclusion (2001 should stand out as being one of the best examples of this), many voters perceive that their vote will have little or no influence on the final outcome.
The sense that a vote counts: The electoral system may also be discouraging voter turnout - although the extent to which this is the case is very much open to question. Critics of the first past the top electoral system used for electing members of parliament to Westminster, argue that the majority of seats are "safe" and in them, supporters of minority parties will rarely see their candidate elected. Even supporters of the incumbent party in a particular seat may be disinclined to vote because their party has already amassed sufficient votes to win the election by a comfortable margin.
Impact of the campaign - malign media impact? Increasingly, many commentators are pointing to "media over-kill" as a root cause of falling turnout. General elections in particular should be a key moment in the political cycle when voters have political power in their hands. In an ideal world, many voters would take the opportunity to immerse themselves in politics; take issue with candidates and express their opinions. There are plenty of opportunities to do so through the media. But there is widespread concern that 24 hours-a-day news coverage, blanket wall-to-wall coverage of stage-managed political rallies and photo-oppportunities is simply turning people off the political process.
The devolution effect: Some analysts claim that the introduction of devolved government for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland would lead to a fall in voter turnout by the electorate in these countries for elections to Westminster. The data for 2001 is inconclusive: Turnout in Scotland and Wales - at 58.1% and 61.4% respectively - was not signifi cantly different from England at 59.1%. However, turnout in Northern Ireland did buck the general trend, rising by 1% over the 1997 election, reaching 68%.
Partisan delignment - undoubtedly, as the strength of support for a political party weakens, so the probability that a voter will turn out to support them in an election will diminish. One of the long term trends in voting behaviour is that of partisan delalignment. The strength of emotional and ideological loyalty to most political parties is becoming ever-more dliuted.
A long term decline in the belief in civic duty - are people less inclined to vote out of a strong belief in civic duty? Turnout among older workers is far higher than younger members of the electorate.
Disengagement of younger voters and ethnic minorities - the decline in voter participation is steepest for young voters (many of whom probably did not register to vote let alone make their way to the polling station) and also among ethnic minorities. There is clearly a major structural problem here - political parties are not identifying or responding to the many and varied needs and priorities of younger voters and people of different social and ethnic backgrounds.
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