explaining labour's second landslide

In many ways, the June 2001 election will be remembered more for the electorate's rejection of the Conservative Party rather than any resounding endorsement of the incumbent Labour government. The abysmal turnout and shroud of apathy that enveloped this election is testimony to the fact that all of the political parties failed to engage with sufficient voters.

But for the Conservatives, the second electoral catastrophe in succession requires an explanation. They made virtually no progress in denting Labour's overwhelming Commons majority. Although their share of the national vote edged higher from the nadir of 1997, the gain in terms of seats was negligible.

Factors behind the Tory Defeat

Numerous factors might help to explain the severity of the defeat for the Conservatives: These revision notes consider a few of them in more detail.

Strong macro-economic performance under Labour
High levels of consumer confidence and consumer spending
Relatively low interest rates (mortgage rates at a forty year low)
Unemployment under one million (according to the claimant count measure)
Sustained economic growth - rising real disposable incomes
Rising house prices
Inflation under control - staying well within the boundaries of the 2.5% inflation target
Labour maintained a strong lead over the Conservatives with voter perceptions over who was best placed to manage the economy

Labour also well ahead on "core election issues" - health, education, transport, law and order
Labour not loved by the electorate - but their safety first approach in the first few years in office laid the foundations for a second term
Tactical campaign errors by the Conservatives - e.g. Hague's decision to attempt to make the election a quasi-referendum on the Euro issue - low issue salience for most voters (most of whom expect a referendum in the future when the issue can then be decided)
Substantial lead for Blair when voters were asked who would make the best Prime Minister
Hague has persistently polled badly since he took over the reins of the Conservative Party leadership in 1997.
Tory party still seen as divided and still tainted to a degree by sleaze allegations

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explaining labour's second landslide

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