Global Issues: WMD: Iran and danger of proliferation

Iran’s nuclear ambitions could plunge the Middle East into “a new Cold War”, warns UK Foreign Secretary William Hague. In an interview with the Daily Telegraph (Iran risks nuclear Cold War), the Foreign Secretary said that if Iran developed nuclear weapon capability, other nations would want to as well. Mr Hague warned of a “crisis coming down the tracks” which could lead to a “disaster in world affairs”.

Foreign Secretary says that Iran is threatening to spark a nuclear arms race in the Middle East which could be more dangerous than the original East-West Cold War as there are not the same “safety mechanisms” in place. Hague asserts:“It is a crisis coming down the tracks,” “Because they are clearly continuing their nuclear weapons programme … If they obtain nuclear weapons capability, then I think other nations across the Middle East will want to develop nuclear weapons. “And so, the most serious round of nuclear proliferation since nuclear weapons were invented would have begun with all the destabilising effects in the Middle East. And the threat of a new cold war in the Middle East without necessarily all the safety mechanisms … That would be a disaster in world affairs.”

The current and ongoing crisis over the issue of Iran’s nuclear ambitions castes into relief the debate over nuclear proliferation. Does proliferation seriously endanger global security? William Hague’s interview would point in that direction, founded on his belief that a nuclear Iran would result in a cascade as the Middle East races to acquire them.

However,importantly there has been alternative opinion’s expressed - RUSI’s [the defence think tank] Shashank Joshi is of the opinion that fears over Iran are being exaggerated. He asserts “If we could live with nuclear weapons in the hands of totalitarian, genocidal states like Stalin’s Russia or Mao’s China, Iran in contrast - whatever its repulsive internal policies and adventurism abroad - is far more rational,”

Mr Joshi said Iran may not be actively pursuing the creation of nuclear weapons but leaving the option open as an insurance policy. “If they feel their regime is under existential threat, if they feel they face a Libya-like situation, they would have the option of building a bomb.” Thus, this ties in with the realist argument that states act in their own self interest in seeking security but also linking in with Waltz’s idea that nuclear proliferation might also create security by creating more rational actors understanding the consequences of a ‘balance of terror’.

The BBC website carries a useful article Hague fears Iran could start ‘new Cold War which has a video clip of an interview with RUSI’s Shashank Joshi.

Other useful links are: CFR’s Crisis Guide on Iran: Click here. BBC’s Q&A Nuclear Issue