Unlikely Events - Lessons for Economists from Art and Sport

Life imitates art, as the sporting world has shown this week. The Grand National was won by a horse which had never previously won a steeplechase. The US golf Masters was won by Danny Willett, who nearly did not take part at all because of birth of his son. With only nine of the 72 holes remaining, last year’s winner, Jordan Spieth, held a massive five shot lead, but blew it.

In soccer, Leicester City have secured a place in next season’s Champions League, and look certain to clinch the Premier League title. The last team apart from Arsenal, Chelsea or the two Manchester teams to win was Blackburn in 1993. The most successful Rugby League side in history, Wigan, were taken to pieces 62-0 in the third heaviest defeat of their entire 121 year existence by Wakefield, a club which escaped relegation last season by the skin of its teeth.