There are several research organisations out there producing regularly updated forecasts on what is likely to happen to the relative shares of global GDP and income per capita over the long run. Typically the forecast stretches out to 2050 and necessarily involves plenty of uncertainty. But these over the horizon studies are quite interesting in their own right because they remind us of the changing drivers of growth in the world economy.
Here is one of these reports - World in 2050 The BRICs and beyond: prospects, challenges and opportunities - produced by economists at PriceWaterhouseCoopers
One interesting part of their analysis concerns the factors that they take into account when estimating the trend rate of growth of potential output for each country. These factors are listed below. Think about their relevance when you are studying supply-side economic policies in AS macro and also determinants of growth and competitiveness as part of your A2 macro course:
Trend growth determined by:
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