Back to the cave or a brave new world?

I popped over to a meeting of Geography Society tonight to hear a talk from Mike Mason, the climate change entrepreneur and founder of Climate Care the carbon offsetting business which has recently been swallowed up by JP Morgan Chase to form part of their JPMorgan's Environmental Markets group.

His prognosis was undeniably gloomy, perhaps because of the mounting evidence of rapid glacial retreat which is outstripping even the most recent forecasts. In August 2008 the for the first time the North Pole is surrounded by sea in summer and the dramatic loss of the Himalayan glacier which waters up to twenty per cent of the world's population and which threatens to increase the variability of the South-East Asian monsoons added to a canvas of gently unremitting pessimism as we were asked to consider once more the likely impact of cataclysmic climate change.

What is clear is that the scale of CO2 emission reduction needed to achieve sustainability has grown. And Mason argued that, given we need around 20% of current emissions just to continue feeding ourselves, cutting C02 by 80 per cent will leave nothing left for fossil fuels.

He predicts a golden age for electricity - presumably much of it generated through nuclear power. Significant progress in reducing the energy consumption of fridges and freezers, giant steps forward in lighting technology and the possible take-off of demand for and the infrastructure needed to supply electric vehicles are all positive signs. He cited Israel as a front-runner in moving beyond petroleum, flagging up their joint venture with Nissan to develop electric vehicles.

Fuel cost comparisons will move strongly in favour towards solar power within the next five years, and electricity will rule - it is here and much of it can be supplied cheaply (try telling that to hard pressed domestic electricity users at the moment). 3G bio-fuels will also assume greater importance and a faster development of alternative fuels will help to reduce the economic growth sacrifice needed to bring about sustainability - Mason's own models estimate that a 3 year growth sacrifice is required over a 40 year time horizon, a period of time when living standards might be expected to double for a country such as the UK.

I was hoping to hear more about carbon offsetting and whether it can ever expect to make a significant difference. And nothing can persuade me that we need to take decisive moves towards a carbon tax if we are to be truly serious about reducing C02 emissions.

But it was a pleasure to listen to an erudite and passionate champion of the campaign to get all of us to recognise what it is we can do to change our behaviour. And I liked his definition of sustainability - “living today as if we intend to still be here tomorrow." His talk ranged far and wide - from Nick Stern's landmark 2006 report to the use of billions of dollars sloshing around in Sovereign Wealth Funds to fund low carbon projects around the world, and from the potential of ceramic lighting to the millions of electric bikes that will throng the streets of emerging markets in the near future.

His underlying message was that it is probably too late to get people to appeal to their morals and initiate change by force of social pressure, far better to roll out the new low carbon technologies, make their affordable and this will be the most powerful catalyst for changes in consumer and business behaviour.

We underestimate the power of markets to provide answers - especially if the incentive structures are right.