Running mate profiles
Further to my posting about the possibility that McCain will release news of who his running mate is going to be, I have come across a great guide in the New York Times to potential running mates
US elections update: McCain-Jindal 08?
Speculation mounts that John McCain will try to grab back some of the media attention that has been draped over Barack Obama’s foreign visits this week by announcing his running mate.
read more...»McCain’s Hispanic difficulty
Earlier this summer I wrote an article for tutor2u’s first past the post magazine entitled ‘Raw Hispanic Power?’ which spotlighted the potential role Hispanics could play in this year’s presidential contest. This week’s Economist contains a story which updates us on how John McCain and Barack Obama are doing in courting the Hispanic vote
read more...»American politics update
Undoubtedly one of the best exercises to get into American politics is to watch the campaign for the election 2008 unfold
read more...»American Politics “homework”
Following the US elections closely over the summer should be an exercise that will bear fruit for students of US Politics
read more...»Trading places
I have come across an interesting website that mixes Politics and markets.
read more...»What are the Democrats for?
There is an excellent review of Paul Krugman’s new book “The Conscience of a Liberal: Reclaiming America from the Right” by Eyal Press in the London Review of Books.
read more...»The election (of) race
Barack Obama’s race was a non-issue it seemed until about March time. What role will it play in the election?
read more...»Obama’s number two
A brief look at the main contenders for the VP spot on this year’s Democratic ticket - including this writer’s prediction
read more...»How big are John McCain’s?
And we’re not talking oven chips
read more...»McCain’s mating game
Speculation continues about who will join the presumptive Republican nominee on the ballot in November
read more...»Clinton claims victory
Too late to make the morning papers is the story of Hillary’s important win in the Pennsylvania primary
read more...»President 2008 - Who Will Capture the Idgit Vote
Some US voters are firmly in the Replublican camp. Others are staunch Democrats. But which candidate will succeed in capturing the vote of the crucial Idgits?
read more...»Geek-o-pedia
For US politics geeks everywhere go to Electopedia!
And for up to minute breaking news from a tremendous range of sources - you can no better than Real Clear Politics
John He Is
Whatever Barack can do John McCain do better? Perhaps not!
read more...»Yes We Can!
Here is the original Barack Obama promotional video on You Tube which has attracted so much attention
read more...»Politics Categories
Indy’s US Election Specials
The Independent newspaper is producing two specials ahead of Super-Duper Tuesday on February 6th. The giant poster in today’s edition will look great in your classroom or departmental resource room. Make sure you get your cope. And tomorrow there is a special 22 page booklet. Naturally there will be plenty of coverage of the US Presidential elections right here on the Tutor2u blog.
The heat is on
With just days until super duper Tuesday, we bring you an excellent overview of the Democratic race from the Guardian newspaper. For American politics watchers there is a danger of drowning under sea of election coverage. This short article focuses on the main points
read more...»Primary consideration
I am sure that blog readers have been following the fascinating primary battle with interest. Here we take a look at the arguments for and against the primary system in light of evidence from the current race.
read more...»Academic analysis of US elections
Want Bill get Hill?
This week we were fortunate to welcome Professor Robert McKeever to the school’s Politics Society to deliver what was for us the third instalment in a series of talks by academic specialists in US Politics on the race for the White House 2008.
Robert Singh spoke in October: http://www.tutor2u.net/newsmanager/templates/?a=2637&z=15
David McKay spoke in November: http://www.tutor2u.net/newsmanager/templates/?a=2706&z=15
McKeever began with an overview of the contest, working backwards from the key date of 4 November through the campaign proper around September time onwards, the National Party Conventions in August and to where we are now; post the early primaries of Iowa (okay, technically a caucus) and New Hampshire.
McKeever suggested that these early contests were not as significant as people tend to make out. They are atypically representative and have a small number of delegates. Although occasionally they can shoot some candidates into the national limelight.
The big day is of course super duper Tuesday on 5 February where a sizeable number of big states come into play. (McKeever pointed out, looking ahead to the GE, that if a candidate wins the 11 biggest states they can carry the election.)
What about the candidates?
The Democrats are largely undifferentiated in terms of policy. Clinton is pitching on the basis of experience. Edwards focuses on his southern-ness and his ability to reach out to a core constituency (southerners) that most Democrats can’t. Obama presents himself as the new generation, a theme that JFK campaigned on over 40 years ago.
On the Republican side, the party is in a bit of disarray – mainly due to an attempt by candidates to distance themselves from GWB.
The GOP is unsure what comes next, due to for instance an apparent decline in the influence of religious and social conservatives.
The big one: who will win?
First, the nominations. Hillary will win. Why?
(1) The Democrat party machine is on her side (partly due to the influence of her husband)
(2) Experience. Differentiating from Obama’s newness.
(3) Base appeal.
For the Republicans, McKeever was less certain.
Giuliani hasn’t actively started campaigning and current frontrunner McCain has no appeal with the base. Romney has no appeal and the GOP faithful are unlikely to fall in love with him.
And the election itself? McKeever states that the Democrats are in a win-win situation since if they select Hillary they will turn out in numbers to vote. And if they select Obama they will turn out in numbers to vote.
But on the GOP side Republicans are less energised and either Democrat would beat any Republican nominee. But bear in mind that Hillary is predicted to win the nomination. So this means that despite the fact that over 40-45% of the American electorate have stated that they would not vote for Hillary under any circumstances, she is odds on to become the 44th president.
