The trade impact of car scrappage
As expected, the UK government has announced an extension to the car scrappage scheme which will expand the consumer subsidy to another 100,000 cars.
The ‘clash for clunkers’ scheme has at least helped to stabilise domestic car production but four fifths of the new cars sold in the UK are imported from overseas. According to the Guardian “For the year to date, production has declined by 44.6%. But the slight improvement recorded last month has prompted some carmakers to hope that the slump is bottoming out.”
So the direct impact on UK car assembly plants is smaller than we might think. Factor in though the multiplier effects on the suppliers of car parts and the boost to retail and distribution businesses.
Stephanie Flanders is on excellent form in her latest Stephanomics blog. She argues that the much larger German car scrappage scheme may have had an even bigger effect on our own producers than the UK government’s modest version. The German subsidy is worth ten times that of the UK and around 40% of German car sales last year were imports. More here.
Second-hand car market – law of unintended consequences
Drive a new car off the forecourt and you it immediately loses a sizeable slice of its value. And, under normal market conditions, second-hand cars lose value by about 15 per cent a year, but this year they are increasing in value – by an average of £600 so far this year – mainly due to a shortage of supply caused by the government’s scrappage scheme.
Signs that Scrappage is Driving Demand
Just over one fifth of new new-car registrations in the UK are being attributed to the government-backed scrappage incentives, according to the Society for Motor Manufacturers and Traders.
Hyundai Motor Co led the way in the sales charts for July. The UK version of the car scrappage scheme offers motorists £2,000 in discount on new vehicles when they trade in vehicles that are more than 10 years old.
For the moment it is private buyers who are driving sales higher. My local Citroen dealer confirmed to me today that their sales have been boosted by the consumer discount - which is part financed by the government and by vehicle manufacturers. As our charts show new car registrations have moved higher and car production - affected greatly by winter plant shut-downs and extended holidays - is now showing signs of recovery. Sales and output for 2009 will be down as a whole - but perhaps the worst is now over?
More on the impact of the car scrappage scheme here from the BBC news site Together with an excellent background section on the challenges facing the car industry during this downturn.
Scrappage scheme makes tracks
It looks like the car scrappage scheme may be starting to bring about a softening in the decline in market demand for new cars. Over 85,000 new orders have been taken under the terms of the subsidy which affects cars more than ten years old. Scrap yards are benefitting from a boost in demand for their services and the car industry (naturally) is looking for an extension to the funding given to the scheme. This BBC video looks at some of the early impact - has the car subsidy given much of a shot in the arm for the British car industry? And this article looks at the pros and cons of car subsidies.
Using the cost-benefit principle in your AS exam
The cost-benefit principle is one of those core ideas that can be brought into so many discussions both in micro and macroeconomics – you should be using it in your papers
read more...»Sewage - The Fuel of the Future?
Waste not want not.
Monopolistic water and sewage companies rarely get a good press but here is a fascinating news story in the Times. Severn Trent, one of the UK’s largest water suppliers which supplies water and waste services to 3.3 million households is researching ways in which the hundreds of thousands of sewage sludge that is generated every year in the UK can be turned into a biomass fuel to produce heat and electricity. The economic incentives to consider this have been boosted by a combination of subsidy, taxation and regulation.
On the subsidy front, since 2003, Renewables Obligation Certificates — a form of subsidy to accredited generators — have been available for electricity that is generated by burning biomass fuels, which include wood, straw or sewage gas and sludge.
On the tax side - the government has gradually increased the size of the landfill tax which covers disposal of waste in landfill sites - the tax is set to increase by 20 per cent to £40 per tonne, up from £32 in 2008. In 2010 it is set to rise again to £48 per tonne.
Regulations now ban the disposal of sewage sludge at sea.
The Times reports that
“About 347,000km of sewers collect more than 11billion litres of waste water in the UK every day. This water is treated at about 9,000 sewage treatment works across the country. Roughly 62 per cent of the country’s sludge is treated and recycled into a type of fertiliser known as biosolids, which is used to fertilise more than 80,000 hectares of British farming land every year.”
This is a good example to use in exam questions because the incentives to develop innovative schemes to find economically viable forms of renewable energy often require a combination of policies working in tandem rather than a single ‘big bang’ approach. Government policies towards waste can be found here.
Electric cars - subsidise the consumer or producer?
We can expect a battery of articles in the days and weeks ahead on government incentives to grow the UK electric car market. Gordon Brown is reported as favouring a sizeable subsidy for consumers to purchase electric vehicles - according to the FT, buyers of electric cars will be offered discounts of more than £2,000 – paid for by the state – under plans by Gordon Brown to make Britain a leading centre for manufacturing “greener” vehicles.
read more...»
Q&A: What is a scrappage subsidy and will it work in the UK?
A scrappage subsidy is a “pay-to-scrap” scheme where a government offers a financial incentive to car buyers if they scrap a car that has reached a specified age and in its place they are offered a payment towards the cost of a new vehicle. Germany and France both offer scrappage subsidies to consumers and there is a growing number of voices from inside the UK business community and motor vehicle industry clamouring for one to be launched in the UK. The Retail Motor Industry Federation and the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) are at the head of the queue lobbying for a scrappage scheme to be introduced as soon as possible.
read more...»Steel Industry may face meltdown
The excellent Big Question feature in the Independent today turns its attention to the problems of what remains of the UK steel industry
“Demand is collapsing as the global recession takes the wind out of both the motor and construction industries. The credit crunch and ensuing recession are wreaking havoc in the motor and building industries in both the UK and Europe, which are Corus’s main markets.”
Corus has announced a huge number of redundancies and the steelworkers unions are complaining that competitiveness of the UK steel sector is being undermined by subsidies to manufacturers in other countries such as France. Further background is available here from the Times:
Steelworkers demand same government subsidies as European rivals
“Facing a precipitous fall in demand for steel from the motor and building industries, Corus said that it needed help to subsidise short-time working at mills that are operating below capacity. Demand in Europe had fallen by 40 per cent while the Corus order book was down 30 per cent.”
Jim has blogged about the rise in labour productivity at UK steel plants - but will increasing efficiency be enough to prevent widespread plant shut downs and job losses? Corus will have a tough time riding out this storm.
AS students might consider these questions:
What are the main demand-side problems facing UK steel producers?
What are the main supply-side problems facing the UK steel industry?
Explain how an economic recession affects the market price of steel
Is there a case for the UK government to offer financial support to the industry at this time?
Further rise signalled in rail fares
Regulated fares on for UK train services will rise again in the New Year as the government continues to seek a reduction in the subsidy paid by the taxpayer. In a good example of how regulatory agencies can have a direct effect on the cost of living, the price of regulated fares including season tickets will increase by six per cent from the start of 2009.
Regulated fares are based on a set formula which limits increases to 1% above retail price index (RPI) inflation
This BBC article looks at the background to the latest annual rise in the cost of travelling by train. The views of various stakeholders are flagged up – is the government right to squeeze the subsidy on passengers? Will higher fares be used to fund necessary investment in new rolling stock to boost the capacity of the system? Or will they serve only to keep people off rail services who are then prompted to make more use of their cars?
Most Popular Topic Tags on the Economics Blog
recession, demand, economics, price, unemployment, prices, inflation, investment, costs, profit, downturn, supply, trade, debt, employment, confidence, euro, gdp, competition, capacity, risk, production, china, oil, incentives, exports, expectations, housing, pay, manufacturing, sterling, food, profits, property, mortgage, tutor2u, globalisation, banks, revision, slowdown, borrowing, usa, retailers, emissions, deflation, airlines, innovation, dollar, supermarkets, entrepreneur, efficiency, monopsony, elasticity, aqa, welfare, consumption, economist, productivity, keynes, saving, google, opec, wealth, depression, moodle, depreciation, jobs, credit crunch, competitiveness, economic cycle, cars, tim harford, externalities, stocks, infrastructure, environmental, strategy, carbon, vle, monopoly, subsidy, evaluation, management, eu, losses, protectionism, spare capacity, inequality, environment, poverty, bank of england, budget deficit, construction, behavioural, wages, macroeconomics, carbon trading, steel, commodities, output gap, skills, japan, oligopoly, currencies, imports, bbc, stagflation, contestable, cpi, agflation, farming, newsnight, choices, regulation, survey, taxes, government failure, itunes, minimum wage, lse, climate change, paul mason, population, intervention, keynes society, aviation, amazon, fiscal stimulus, single market, pricing, dan ariely, nationalisation, cartel, pollution, eton college, interest rates, shareholder, london, rationality, redundancies, market failure, rpi, mpc, shipping, behavioural economics, germany, robert peston, india, rsa, reputation, currency, quantitative easing, facebook, income elasticity, stakeholders, current account, brazil, coffee, savings, microsoft, monetary policy, crowding out, collapse, barriers to entry, multiplier effect, economies of scale, suppliers, price discrimination, uk economy, development, quiz, apple, surplus, taxation, tesco, free, scrappage, labour market, behaviour, tragedy of the commons, opportunity cost, open source, vat, smoking, cost of living, poverty trap, merger, growth, speculation, edinburgh, ownership, discrimination, northern rock, global, cost benefit analysis, ireland, oecd, supply chain, shareholders, scarcity, balance of payments, petrol, liquidity, duopoly, etonomics, iphone, starbucks, trade deficit, happiness, budget, human capital, capital, subsidies, immigration, eurozone, takeover, exploitation, ecb, paradox of thrift, wiki, advertising, public sector, labour force survey, peter day, utility, wants, brand, tax, poland, iceland, blog, recovery, foreign exchange, european union, indirect tax, robert frank, roger bootle, ocr economics, heathrow, hbos, hotels, freight, creative destruction, federal reserve, kaletsky, price war, information failure, crude oil, spain, gini coefficient, transport, government borrowing, leverage, sony, migrants, us economy, animal spirits, stephanie flanders, waste, information, fishing, milk, eu enlargement, anchoring, obama, entrepreneurship society, aggregate demand, needs, internet, forecast, discounting, real income, copper, deficit, contestability, nissan, evan davis, companies, fairness, geoff riley, blogging, standard of living, aqa economics, consumer welfare, martin wolf, renewable, labour mobility, collusion, imf, fair trade, pubs, income tax, obesity, res, disposable income, david smith, national debt, devaluation, consumer surplus, corus, vacancies, global economy, sub-prime, tariff, twitter, price capping, joint venture, accelerator effect, guardian, startups, youth unemployment, yuan, immobility, edexcel economics, edmund conway, redundancy, tata, walmart, relative poverty, sentiment, tickets, coal, vehicles, cash, base rate, russia, diesel, marginal cost, external shocks, movies, liquidity trap, contestable market, income elasticity of demand, libor, broadband, fixed costs, comparative advantage, accelerator, allocative efficiency, pensions, training, economic efficiency, trend growth, king of shaves, satisficing, undercover economist, hot money, price mechanism, deleveraging, positional goods, congestion, jobless, social entrepreneur, apprenticeships, hyperinflation, migration, financial times, age structure, cyclical, chris coleridge, monopoly power, pay cuts, reserve currency, ryanair, wheat, mervyn king, ucas, law of unintended consequences, carbon tax, aldi, gillette, deindustrialisation, barclays, price volatility, yahoo, organic growth, liberalisation, house prices, richard thaler, derived demand, veblen goods, paul krugman, schumpeter, royal mail, markets, diseconomies of scale, logging, green revolution, tax burden, savings ratio, pension, demography, structural, nhs, job losses, ocr, the economist, scotland, cross elasticity, brics, redistribution, biofuel, drugs, gold, nelson thornes, research, producer welfare, ebea, footfall, british airways, income distribution, social costs, ft, enterprise, natural monopoly, tariffs, general motors, o2, deforestation, economic welfare, bonds, asda, will king, automatic stabilisers, landfill, long tail, jim o'neill, disincentives, economax, energy, podcast, share prices, external shock, slump, resources, profit margin, fiscal drag, hysteresis, ftse, philip allan, hedge fund, students, buy to let, logic of life, contraction, equity, elasticity of supply, oil prices, market power, health, ben bernanke, market structure, global business, enlargement, retailing, supply-side, hedging, declan curry, nokia, chris anderson, bric economies, diane coyle, dynamic efficiency, price fixing, fiscal policy, winners curse, zimbabwe, stimulus, hamish mcrae, toyota, john kay, claimant count, green shoots, compound interest, contestable markets, frictional, rory cellan-jones, status races, healthcare, repossession, eastern europe, public good, credit, royal economic society, sustainability, invention, accession countries, probability, sustainable growth, gnp, superfreakonomics, vertical integration, inflationary pressure, business model, default behaviour, rentokil, retirement age, business cycle,All tags
ECONOMICS TEACHER RESOURCE NEWSLETTER
Join over 4,000 other Economics Teachers in the UK and around the world who receive the tutor2u Economics Resource Email newsletter. Get special offers, first news of latest resources, teaching ideas, conferences and workshops.
Recent Threads on the Economics Teacher Discussion Forums:
Posts in: General Economics Teaching
Video Case-study - lunchtime prices slashed
Long Exam Example to Use for Revision Please?
Good hotel in London for school trip
Competitive Markets
Diminishing Returns
Complementary goods - HELP Please!
URgent Help Needed
Equilibrium concept
The price of life
Extended Project Qualification
