Pain in Spain - on the brink of depression
In our introductory AS macroeconomics we have discussed the differences between a cyclical recession and a depression. Much depends on the scale of the contraction in real national output from peak to trough of the cycle. This article from the Telegraph looks at a dire outlook for the Spanish economy which - not long ago - was one of the fastest growing countries in the European Union with a rising relative per capita income.
Quoting a report from Madrid research group RR de Acuña & Asociados, the peak to trough loss of GDP is likely to be more than 11%. “The group said Spain’s unemployment will peak at around 25pc, comparable to the worst chapter of the Great Depression......The construction sector will shrink from 18pc of GDP at the peak of the boom to around 5pc, making it unlikely that there will be any significant recovery before 2012. Even then growth will be “slow, weak, and fragile”.
A huge rise in the Spanish government’s budget deficit has left them little wriggle room for a fresh fiscal stimulus.
Spain and Ireland are frequently quoted as two EU countries whose property bubbles have been well and truly smashed with huge macroeconomic consequences. The slump in property represents a very large internal demand-side shock for a country heavily dependent on construction and also tourism for value-added measures of GDP.
Olive Oil Producers Suffer from Falling Prices
For the olive oil growers of Spain falling prices are threatening their very existence. They claim that the supermarkets - who sell 9 out of every 10 bottles - have used their market muscle to drive down the retail price and the growers are barely able to justify continuing production. This is a good short video on the workings of the price mechanism.
Deflation in the European Economy
Yesterday we learned that France and Germany were making tentative steps out of recession with 0.3% increases in real GDP in both countries during the second quarter (April through to June). Today the latest consumer price data came out for the Euro Zone and they show that the single currency area is now firmly in the grip of price deflation.
The average annual rate of inflation for the sixteen nations that are participating in the single currency was -0.7% in July 20092, down from -0.1% in June. A year earlier the rate was 4.0%.
For the EU as a whole there remains wide variations in the rate of inflation. Deflation is happening in Ireland (-2.6%), Belgium (-1.7%) and Luxembourg (-1.5%), whereas CPI inflation is relatively high in Romania (5.0%), Hungary (4.9%) and Poland (4.5%).
The latest CPI inflation data for the UK was 1.8% in June - a tad below the inflation target of 2.0%.
Inflation in the Euro Zone is likely to remain low in the near-term:
1/ There is a growing margin of spare capacity in the EU economy with most countries fighting recession and operating with a large negative output gap
2/ The recession is having a dampening effect on wage pressures
3/ A stronger Euro against the US dollar is keeping a lid on the cost of rising international commodity prices
4/ Manufacturers and retailers have lost pricing power because of the economic downturn
Pain in Spain
Spanish unemployment has more than doubled in the last year and is now surging above the 4 million mark and heading for 5 million and an average of more than 20% of the labour force. Over 700,000 jobs have been lost in construction alone as the fall out continues from the collapse in the once-booming residential property market. As the FT reports today ““Spain and Ireland together have accounted for 75 per cent of the eurozone’s unemployment increase in the 12 months to February, even though they make up only 14 per cent of gross domestic product,” he said. “That tells you a lot about how bad their performance has been. Spanish employers are pleading for a reform of Spanish labour laws, saying it is too expensive to hire and fire permanent workers.” More here from the Independent.
Spanish Economy - After the Fiesta
The Spanish economy is in trouble after out-performing the rest of the Euro Zone for the last decade. Download this special feature on the Spanish Economy…
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