The trade impact of car scrappage
As expected, the UK government has announced an extension to the car scrappage scheme which will expand the consumer subsidy to another 100,000 cars.
The ‘clash for clunkers’ scheme has at least helped to stabilise domestic car production but four fifths of the new cars sold in the UK are imported from overseas. According to the Guardian “For the year to date, production has declined by 44.6%. But the slight improvement recorded last month has prompted some carmakers to hope that the slump is bottoming out.”
So the direct impact on UK car assembly plants is smaller than we might think. Factor in though the multiplier effects on the suppliers of car parts and the boost to retail and distribution businesses.
Stephanie Flanders is on excellent form in her latest Stephanomics blog. She argues that the much larger German car scrappage scheme may have had an even bigger effect on our own producers than the UK government’s modest version. The German subsidy is worth ten times that of the UK and around 40% of German car sales last year were imports. More here.
Signs that Scrappage is Driving Demand
Just over one fifth of new new-car registrations in the UK are being attributed to the government-backed scrappage incentives, according to the Society for Motor Manufacturers and Traders.
Hyundai Motor Co led the way in the sales charts for July. The UK version of the car scrappage scheme offers motorists £2,000 in discount on new vehicles when they trade in vehicles that are more than 10 years old.
For the moment it is private buyers who are driving sales higher. My local Citroen dealer confirmed to me today that their sales have been boosted by the consumer discount - which is part financed by the government and by vehicle manufacturers. As our charts show new car registrations have moved higher and car production - affected greatly by winter plant shut-downs and extended holidays - is now showing signs of recovery. Sales and output for 2009 will be down as a whole - but perhaps the worst is now over?
More on the impact of the car scrappage scheme here from the BBC news site Together with an excellent background section on the challenges facing the car industry during this downturn.
Scrappage scheme makes tracks
It looks like the car scrappage scheme may be starting to bring about a softening in the decline in market demand for new cars. Over 85,000 new orders have been taken under the terms of the subsidy which affects cars more than ten years old. Scrap yards are benefitting from a boost in demand for their services and the car industry (naturally) is looking for an extension to the funding given to the scheme. This BBC video looks at some of the early impact - has the car subsidy given much of a shot in the arm for the British car industry? And this article looks at the pros and cons of car subsidies.
Servicing the Car Makers
Our motor vehicle industry appears to be in a fragile state, rarely a day goes by without one manufacturer or another locked in talks with the government about loan guarantee schemes or other emergency measures designed to prop up production in a sector hit by falling sales and the challenge of an industry with huge global capacity. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders estimate that nigh on 800,000 people are employed in the motor vehicle industry in the UK. But how many of them have jobs on the production line itself, physically assembling the vehicles? The answer is smaller than you might think.
read more...»Buyers market drives new car prices below second hand
This seems to defy microeconomic logic but it is a sign of how the balance of power in the new car market has switched to the buyer rather than the seller. New car registrations remain almost a third lower than at the same time last year and car dealerships are so desperate to unload stocks and generate much needed cash flow that their deep discounts on the prices of new or nearly new cars have driven the prices of some models below that of prices for the same vehicles in the second hand market.
read more...»Q&A: What is a scrappage subsidy and will it work in the UK?
A scrappage subsidy is a “pay-to-scrap” scheme where a government offers a financial incentive to car buyers if they scrap a car that has reached a specified age and in its place they are offered a payment towards the cost of a new vehicle. Germany and France both offer scrappage subsidies to consumers and there is a growing number of voices from inside the UK business community and motor vehicle industry clamouring for one to be launched in the UK. The Retail Motor Industry Federation and the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) are at the head of the queue lobbying for a scrappage scheme to be introduced as soon as possible.
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