GlaxoSmithKline and Pfizer choose to collaborate on HIV drugs
Here is an excellent highly relevant article on cooperative behaviour between oligopolistic giants. Two of the world’s biggest drugs companies GlaxoSmithKline and Pfizer have announced a plan to merge their HIV treatments in a joint venture. ViiV Healthcare is an attempt for both companies to limit the risks of costly races to find new profitable treatments for HIV/aids and give them an opportunity to counter the loss of the revenues as these companies lose patent protection and are open to competition from generic drug makers. It is a strong reminder of the very high fixed costs of research into new drugs; the long lead times between new drug development, testing and finally getting it to the market. And also the impact of the entry of generic drugs into markets once patent protection runs out. The new company has a 19% share of the global drugs market, in comparison to the Californian company Gilead’s 31%.
Drug firms’ collaboration pools HIV treatments (Independent)
IPO of HIV business is ‘up to shareholders’ (Telegraph)
Navigating our Global Future - Ian Goldin at TED
Ian Goldin speaking at the TED conference in Oxford in 2009. A short but deeply interesting talk about globalisation and some of the systemic risks and systemic shocks that are likely to become more virulent.
read more...»Sugar prices and production and investment incentives
World sugar prices are close to a 30 year high with values on the Chicago mercantile exchange hovering just under $30c per pound. For countries whose sugar exports account for a large proportion of their export earnings, the steep increase in world prices has brought about an improvement in their terms of trade and - because demand for many foodstuffs is price inelastic, a favourable change in their balance of trade. A good example of this is the African country of Mozambique, a nation almost destroyed by a long running civil war that eventually ended in the early 1990s but which has also been hit in recent years by severes drought hit many central and southern parts of the country, including previously flood-stricken areas. And where half of the population must survive on less than $1 a day.
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The Fiscal Crisis - Borrow Long - If You Can!
This is a related post to my recent blog on the scale of government borrowing and debt. The Debt Management Office is responsible for finding buyers for the new debt issued by the UK government and they have their hands full this year with the challenge of selling over £220bn worth of new securities. Edmund Conway has a fascinating blog piece here about the term structure of this debt and what is means for the cost of making the interest payments. This week the UK government issued new bonds that will not be due for repayment until 2060 when most of us will be long gone! A fifty year bond is perhaps the longest bond (gilt) to have been issued for many years. And it turns out that the average date to maturity for UK public sector debt is significantly higher than for most advanced economies.
“The UK’s debt market is peculiar. In the US, average length of the existing Treasury bonds was, at recent count, 4.7 years and falling. Because this is such a short maturity, it means the debt has to be rolled over far more often, and at every point the government runs the risk of setting in stone any changes in interest rates. In France, the average maturity is 7.1 years, in Italy 6.9 years, in Germany 6.35 and in Japan 5.7 years. In Britain, the weighted average maturity of government bonds is a whopping 14.2 years. Admittedly, as the IMF points out this is slightly lower in the wake of the crisis, but it is still significantly longer than any other major economy.”
Public debt and intergenerational equity
With government borrowing set to rise above £175bn this year and total public sector debt already approaching 60% of GDP and set to surge much higher in the coming years, attention is now focusing on who will pay for this almost total collapse of fiscal discipline. There truly is no such thing as a free lunch - next year the costs of servicing the national debt will be over £60m a day.
The latest National Institute report makes for somber reading. They project that an economic recovery built around exports may do little to reduce the size of government borrowing and escalating debt and that a structural budget deficit in excess of 6% of GDP is likely to persist. Ray Barrell’s quote in this article in the Times is a classic example of the problem of inter-generational equity:
read more...»
EU warns that UK’s Black Hole is unsustainable
The European Commission has just published its latest Sustainability Report that looks at the state of the government finances of member nations. And the warning is pretty clear - without strong corrective action the UK runs the risk of public sector debt becoming unsustainable
read more...»Wall Street Partnerships and Principal Agent Problem
John Gapper has a super blog over at the FT in which he discusses the benefits that might flow from reforming bankers’ pay and restoring the partnership approach to renumeration
“Mr Thain correctly pointed out during the session that the old partnership structure of Wall Street firms, under which partners’ capital was at risk until they retired, produced better incentives in terms of risk management than bonuses based on short-term performance...This is not a bad idea but it might be extended. Why not truly replicate the partnership structure by applying those conditions to everyone who reached “partner” level - senior managing director or the equivalent at a large investment bank?”
This ties in with the idea of changing the behaviour of senior management so that they give great weight to the risks of particular investment and lending strategies and tries to avoid the myopic decision making that has proved so costly before the financial crisis.
The partnership model has applied particularly successfully in the UK with the continued success of the John Lewis Partnership. In March 2009 despite the effects of the retail recession, John Lewis announced that The company it would pay out total bonuses of £125.5m. That is the equivalent to about 13% of salary, or seven weeks’ pay.
Score Draw and Soccernomics
Arjun Bali looks at the surprisingly low number of draws in Premiership Football and suggests that the Reds might have challenged more strongly for the title last year had Benitez been more of an economist!
read more...»The UK Economy - a Long Run Perspective
We tend to focus on short run changes in output, jobs, prices and profits and risk missing the long term picture of where an economy is. A year ago I produced this chartroom presentation as the UK economy entered recession - this has now been updated and might be useful for colleagues helping students develop an appreciation of the long-run trends in key UK economic data. It is available for download in pdf and scorn-compliant VLE format.
Launch streamed revision presentation on the Long Run Perspective
Download SCORM-compliant VLE ZIP version
Download printable pdf handout version
Keynes v Friedman
A cross posting from my blogging colleague Jon Mace
Today’s extract in The Telegraph from Edmund Conway’s new book looks at Milton Friedman and Monetarism. Economics students need to have a sound awareness of the Monetarism versus Keynesian debate. Friedman and Keynes came from opposing ends of economic ideology. They doctrines have dominated economic thinking and policy over the last 50 years. In short Keynes placed greater emphasis on unemployment than inflation and gave warning that the state of the economy could be improved by some government interference. Friedman argued otherwise.
Conway provides a good analysis of the difference between these two economic giants:
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon,” Friedman said. In short, by pumping extra money into the system (as the Keynesians were prone to doing) governments would drive up inflation, risking major economic pain. Friedman believed that if central banks were charged with maintaining control of prices, most other aspects of the economy – unemployment, economic growth, productivity – would take care of themselves.
While Keynes had asserted that it was difficult to persuade workers to accept lower wages, classical monetarist theory argued otherwise: that lower incomes for workers and lower prices for firms were acceptable in the face of rising inflation. The growth rate of an economy, argued Friedman, could be determined by controlling the amount of money being printed by central banks. Print more cash and people would spend more, and vice versa. It also marked an important political departure: whereas Keynes argued politicians should attempt to control the economy through fiscal policy, Friedman advocated giving independent central banks control over the economy using interest rates
The piece then goes on to examine the successes and failures of the two doctrines over the last fifty years. I always think it important for students to have an awareness of the changing economic conditions and favored policies over the decades, it only helps them to ingrain a deeper understanding of the theory.
He finishes the extract with an excellent quote from Martin Wolf:
Just as Keynes’s ideas were tested to destruction in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, Milton Friedman’s ideas might suffer a similar fate in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. All gods fail, if one believes too much.
The article in full can be found here.
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