Covenants may become THE story in 2009
Bankers’ Covenants .....You will only find three references to it on the BBC news website archive and it is not a phrase that normally sets the pulses racing, but I suggest that we will be hearing much more about bankers covenants in the coming weeks and months - so bear with the technical stuff - this really does matter!
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Bankers and the Blame Game
The BBC Today programme today covered an interview between Robert Peston and John Varley, CEO of Barclays on the extent to which the banking industry should accept responsibility for the financial crisis and the collapse in lending. This clip includes a section of the interview - the full version will be on Panorama - but the real value is the follow up discussion between Evan Davis and Professor John Kay in which John makes a telling point about the nature of banking risk. The kinds of bank loans that most of us need - to finance a home improvement, or a student loan or an extended overdraft to tide us over unemployment or a period of difficulty were not the types of risk-taking by banks that got us into this trouble in the first place - excessive leverage built on securitisation is the root cause of the crisis.
Evan Davis used to be taught at Oxford by John Kay - it was a delight to hear their conversation on radio this morning as I headed into the final furlong of the Christmas shopping - but the streets of my own home town were strangely quiet even by 11am when I headed home. Was it the same where you live?
John has a new book coming out next month which promises to be timely and enlightening - the title is The Long and the Short of it: A Guide to Finance and Investment for Normally Intelligent People Who Aren’t in the Industry - and it is available for pre-order now on Amazon.
B2BB - Back to Banking Basics
I have read much on the complex causes of the Banking Crisis but rarely have I heard an explanation as clear and compelling as that offered by Guy Ashton Head of Global Equity Research at Deutsche Bank at the school’s Stock Broking Society tonight.
read more...»Causes of the Crunch
What links the following?
China
The liquidity bubble
Search for yield
Sub-prime lending
Leverage
Originate and distribute
Alan Greenspan
The Democrats
The Republicans
Regulators
Credit rating agencies
Financial Services Authority
Greedy bankers
Consumers/housebuyers
Margaret Thatcher
Moral hazard
Gordon Brown
Mark-to-market accounting
Basel 2
Estate agents
According to Sean Farrell and Sean O’Grady from the Independent, they have all contributed in one way or another to the credit crunch. Here is the link to what is an excellent background article for students.
Anguished of Edinburgh
The BBC’ Business Editor Robert Peston offered a rapid fire tutorial in the credit crunch in his address to the Edinburgh Book Festival today. Some people have perhaps unfairly labelled him as “Pessimistic Peston”, the man who first revealed the state of the liquidity crisis at the Northern Rock in early September 2007. But he delivered an engaging and witty talk to a large group of the well heeled of Edinburgh who clearly have weighty financial issues on their minds.
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