Gordon’s economic history lesson
It cannot have been easy or much fun for the man. Gordon Brown’s appearance on the Andrew Marr show this morning was supposed to have been the start of the big fight-back after the appalling drubbing that he suffered at the polls on Thursday and Friday. But the garbled mixture of reassurance and platitudes about the government ‘feeling our pain’ was distinctly underwhelming. I winced ahfl way through the interview when Brown claimed that the last Labour government inherited high inflation from the Conservatives. This is simply not true. I applaud his decision to give independence to the Bank of England in May 1997, but low and (relatively) stable inflation did not appear miraculously when Blair walked into Number 10 that year - consumer price inflation (the government’s chosen emasure, but not one that most of us now look at with much credence) was already low for some years before 1997 as our chart shows. Inflation targets (introduced in the UK in 1992 after our departure from the ERM) and a favourable mix of disinflationary economic shocks, globalisation and the strong exchange rate combined to give Brown and his Treasury team an inheritance of low inflation when they came to power. Perhaps it was the stress that caused Brown to make such a shocking mistake in his attempt to teach us all a little economic history?
Revision: China and the UK Economy
Events and developments in one country inevitably have spill-over effects onto others. Your economics revision should consider some of these inter-relationships wherever possible. It will certainly help your analysis and evaluation. In this revision note we look at China
Revision note:
Revision_China_Effect.pdf
Stephen King savages rigid inflation targets
Stephen King, Chief Global Economist at HSBC is brilliant in today’s Independent - attacking the rigid adherence to an inflation target based solely on the rate of change of consumer prices and ignoring asset price deflation. One of the best comment pieces on macroeconomic policy that I have read in a long time.
“The rigid adherence to an inflation target in a world of constant external shocks may sometimes be more a source of instability than of tranquillity. With sizeable relative price shocks stemming from globalisation, the risks of instability are all the greater. Even worse, if the public thinks that price stability is the only litmus test of economic health, the achievement of low inflation may encourage excessive risk-taking which, in turn, could undermine the achievement of broader economic objectives.”
Economics Revision Workshops Summer 2008
The programmes for our intensive one-day revision workshops for AS & A2 Economics are being finalised as we prepare for what should be a really useful series of revision days.
read more...»Revision: Household Saving
This revision focus looks at household saving - the decision to postpone consumption
At AS level, changes in the household savings ratio can have significant effects on the level of aggregate demand (in the short term) and also on the funds available to finance investment. There has been a trend decline in the savings ratio in many countries (in the United States, the personal sector savings ratio has touched zero!) and AS economists ought to be able to use an aggregate demand / supply framework to analyse some of the effects for variables such as GDP, employment, inflationary pressures and the balance of payments.
Is the low level of household saving a cause for economic concern in the longer term? if so, what might be done to increase saving? How does globalisation impact on the significance of saving for economic growth? This 3 page revision focus document (available in pdf format) covers some of these issues.
New Labour’s Economic Dream turns to Nightmare?
The Sunday Times offers an article which suggests the public’s perception of New Labour’s economic policies are turning decidedly sour.
“By 78% to 12%, voters think that the government wastes large amounts of money and is not trying to do anything about it,” according to David Smith.
read more...»Yuan’s World
Countries running gigantic trade surpluses must take some responsibility for rebalancing the world economy by raising their own domestic demand for goods and services. That was the message I took from a speech on the balance of payments given last week by John Gieve, deputy governor of the Bank of England. In a talk to the Sovereign Wealth Management Conference in London. Mr Gieve argued that stronger action is needed to correct some of the deep rooted balance of payments imbalances in the world economy and that sovereign wealth funds will have an increasing role to play by boosting investment in their domestic economies to close some of the gap between domestic savings and investment.
Some key points from his speech are given below:
