Mervyn faces the Music

The Governor and his colleagues faced the press yesterday at the launch of the quarterly inflation report .... here is a selection of comments from them from questions fired from economics journalists, there is some great evaluation in here for AS and A2 economics students!

Cheaper sterling to the rescue?

For some time now I have been arguing that the media should be paying more attention to the exchange rate when considering the propsects for the UK economy over the coming months. A cheaper currency acts as a boost to exports and aggregate demand and can be a very useful stabiliser in an economy weakening from the fall-out from the credit crunch. There are naturally risks from a sharp downward movement in the exchange rate, not least the impact on the prices of imported products and possible flow-through effects on cost and price inflation. But taken as a whole, a lower exchange rate is what the UK economy needs at the moment - and we are getting it! Charles Bean, Chief Economist of the Bank of England made clear reference to this in an important speech in London today - it is available to download here from the Bank of England website. I have picked out one paragraph in particular which focuses on the exchange rate and compares the impact of cuts in interest rates with currency depreciations.

Our whopping trade deficit!

International trade statistics always come with a health warning atatched to them - the data on the value of exports and imports is frequently subject to future revisions. That said, the ONS released figures today showing that the UK economy ran a current account deficit for the year 2007 of £57.8 billion (-4.2 per cent of GDP), compared with a deficit of £50.7 billion in 2006 (-3.9 per cent of GDP). The rise in the annual deficit was mainly due to a higher deficit on trade in goods and a lower surplus on investment income.  A deficit of £46.6 billion was recorded with the EU in the 2007,
compared with a deficit of £39.0 billion in 2006. The deficit on trade in goods was £87.6 billion in 2007, a rise of £10.1 billion compared with 2006. The surplus for trade in services was £38.5 billion in 2007, a rise of £7.4 billion compared with 2006. You can download the data here

I have produced a chart summary of some of the key stats which might be useful when revising the current account with students.

PowerPoint
UK_BoP_2007.ppt

Potatoes - The Crop of the Future?

In a world of agflation with grain prices continuing to climb higher as developed nations prolong a love affair with bio-fuels, perhaps the humble spud provides a credible and viable solution to the crisis that rising food prices is having for hundreds of millions of the world’s poorest people.

Revision Focus: Export Performance

The blog will feature regular revision notes for students preparing for their AS and A2 economics papers in June 2008.

Explain the factors which may help to determine an economy’s export performance (20 marks)

A revision note on some of the factors that shape the growth of exports for an economy

The Decoupling Debate

The D word - ‘decoupling’ - is at the heart of the debate regarding global economic prospects for 2008 and beyond.

The term refers to the shift by developing economies - and newly industrialising countries in particular - away from dependence on strong demand in the West for their products.