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Windows for a new generation?

Thursday, July 09, 2009
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It seems that Joseph Schumpeter’s process of creative destruction is still going full throttle ahead, with Google’s announcement this week of a operating system (Chrome OS) to rival Microsoft’s dominance through Windows.

The idea behind the creative destruction process is that in a capitalist society, as monopoly positions arise behind high barriers to entry, the supernormal profits earned by these monopolies entice budding entrepreneurial firms to encroach on the market.  However, given the high barriers to entry to attack the monopoly’s position directly, the new firms must be more innovative and circumvent the market, which usually involves coming up with a tweaked, more innovative product.  In the 1980s we had IBM; Microsoft usurped it, and Apple has been trying to do the same to Microsoft (with some obvious successes such as the iPod); and it seems now that Google has decided to have a go too.

It won’t be easy given Microsoft’s 88% share of the operating system market; but this is still down on its previously touted 95% in years gone by. For a firm that managed to turn the name of its firm into common parlance and into various dictionaries (“to google”), if anyone can take on such a Herculean task, it is indeed Google.  With its use of Open-Source programming, it is able to tap many talents around the world; and with its deep pockets to rival any firm; it is able to fund extensive R&D.

It is also great to see in what is for the main part a duopolistic market, seeing fierce (non-price) competition, just as the economic theory would predict. It will be interesting to see what happens – in theory, the consumer will reap large benefits as these two giants fight it out to keep innovating and coming up with user-friendly ideas and add-ons; rather than providing consumers with a stale product (and if there’s one thing that Google knows how to do incredibly well, it is innovate; as evidenced by the plethora of extras it comes out with every few months).

However, the worst case for the consumer would be if we end up with a 2-tiered system with some of the world using Chrome and some of the world using Windows – as without inter-compatibility, we would lose many of the positives of the “network effects” of having one standard applied globally.  So ultimately consumers should want one operating system to prevail over the other.

What will be interesting, will be in the fullness of time, to see if Google does become the new Microsoft; and we start to see Competition Commission concerns about Google’s dominance and a regular fine for abuse of its dominant position.  Everyone likes a new firm taking on an old dominant force; but few think about what happens when the new firms actually become the dominant force… Watch this space!

The image below perhaps summarises the process rather nicely…

 


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