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Why should a fall in output lead to a fall in the exchange rate?

Wednesday, March 13, 2013
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This article gives the opportunity for some neat cause-and-effect analysis. The cause is data from the ONS which shows that manufacturing output fell by 1.5% in January, following a 0.9% rise in December. The effect? Sterling has fallen to another low against the dollar. However the chain of argument which links this to the fall in manufacturing data is missing, as if often the case in students' essays, and which tends to cost them valuable analysis marks in exams.

At this time of year, many lessons and homeworks are beginning to home in on exam technique; perhaps students could use these reports from Reuters and from the BBC to create a flow chart showing the links from cause to effects in order to answer a question like 'To what extent might the fall in UK manufacturing output in January 2013 be responsible for a fall in the exchange rate with the US dollar'.

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