Where is the UK Economy? National Output

The first of an occasional series - putting economic data into context. First we focus on the level of real national output in the UK in the aftermath of the recession and with recovery appearently grinding to a halt.

UK GDP remains well below the peak of national output at the end of the last cycle in the early months of 2008. During the recession, national output fell by a cumulative 7 per cent. Since then there has been a slow and uncertain recovery and the Bank of England has recently slashed their growth forecasts for the remainder of 2011 and for 2012. Growth of less than 1 per cent will cause unemployment to rise and will damage business and consumer confidence (animal spirits) and further undermine planned capital investment spending.

There is a real danger than UK trend economic growth (the estimated annual growth of potential GDP) will continue to edge lower affecting living standards and any chance of the government meeting its medium term deficit reduction targets.

Bank of England: Bank of England finds risk of crisis biggest since 2008

Investment in Energy Infrastructure [23 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Cyclical and Structural Economic Issues Facing the UK [23 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Evaluation on Supply-Side Policies [21 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Current Account of the Balance of Payments [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Migration and the UK Economy [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Positive and Negative Multiplier Effects [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Importance of Productivity [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Measuring Unemployment in the UK [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Human Development Index (HDI) [20 May 2012]
Q&A: What do we need to know about output gaps? [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Output Gap [20 May 2012]
Revision notes on unemployment [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Bank Cuts UK growth Forecast for 2012 [16 May 2012]
Grexit - Andrew Balls on Greece and the Euro [16 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Economics of a Minimum Wage [12 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Poverty and Inequality and Market Failure [12 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision Notes on Supply-side Policies [10 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Model answer for revision data question [9 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Growth and Development Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Monetary Policy and Inflation Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Trade and Balance of Payments Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Unemployment Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Fiscal Policy Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Economic Cycle Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Aggregate Demand Glossary [5 May 2012]
Macro Revision - Key Statistics on the UK Economy [4 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Using the Cost-Benefit Principle [30 Apr 2012]
Macro Revision: Putting Things in Context [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Spanish unemployed head to Argentina [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Britain back in Recession [29 Apr 2012]
Tullow Oil and African Development [25 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: The Euro Zone Crisis (Revision) [22 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Heathow’s Capacity and Connectivity Crunch [22 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Adecco and Monopsony Power [22 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Better news on jobs in the UK? [19 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Managing the Global Commons - Limits to GDP [15 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Skills Shortages Hold Back Recovery [12 Apr 2012]
Superb article on unemployment [8 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: How the Economic Cycle affects Businesses [6 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The UK Balance of Payments in 2011 [4 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate [3 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Productivity Improvements in China [3 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: The Collapsing Price of Carbon [3 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Real Economic Data [2 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Unemployment Scarring Effects [2 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Pain in Spain as Fiscal Austerity Bites [1 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Gross National Happiness in Bhutan [31 Mar 2012]
Posen on slower growth in the UK compared to the USA [30 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Capital Investment [30 Mar 2012]
Global Economy- the 2012 BRICS Summit [28 Mar 2012]
Intergenerational Equity - Fairness and the Slump [28 Mar 2012]
Blanchflower calls for more action to address youth jobless crisis [28 Mar 2012]
Life in the Slow Lane - UK Growth in 2011 Lags the Euro Area [28 Mar 2012]
George Buckley at the Millfield Economics Society [28 Mar 2012]
Beyond the Bike - Monetary Policy in Africa [28 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Evaluating 3 Years of Quantitative Easing [27 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: The Tax on Beer [16 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Inequality - The Rise of Fuel Poverty [15 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Seasonal and Structural Unemployment [15 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Policies to Drive Economic Recovery [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro - Labour Migration and the Economy [5 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Sovereign Wealth Funds [4 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Might Oil Prices Bring another Recession? [4 Mar 2012]
Economies hooked on central bank stimulants? [4 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: A Man Regains his Self Respect [25 Feb 2012]
Unit 1 Economics: Panorama - Poor America [17 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Dash for Gas in Mozambique [17 Feb 2012]
A return to Glass-Steagall to prevent another crash? A lesson from economic history. [17 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Is the UK Economy Turning a Corner? [15 Feb 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: King on the UK Economy [15 Feb 2012]
Economics Explained, by Evan [12 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: China’s Trade Engine is Spluttering [10 Feb 2012]
Martin Wolf on Global Shocks [10 Feb 2012]
Stephanie Flanders explains Quantitative Easing in 60 seconds [9 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Growth and Development - Some Indicators [30 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Focus on India - Comparative Advantage [27 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Trade and Growth [27 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Carbon Emissions and Growth [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Per Capita Incomes [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Changing Economic Structure [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Focus on India - Supply Side Issues [25 Jan 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Can the UK Computer Games Industry Grow [24 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Focus on India - Economic Growth [24 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Money, Debt and the New World Order [22 Jan 2012]
France and Flexible Employment [22 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Russia Joins the WTO [22 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Living below the Breadline [19 Jan 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: World’s Largest Solar Plant Opens [15 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Frontier Markets - the New BRICS? [15 Jan 2012]
Beyond the Bike - The Importance of Remittances [15 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Time to Re-Boot the British Economy [14 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Economics of Fiscal Deficit Reduction [12 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Competitive Advantage in Trade (Some Videos) [12 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: UK Bond Yields Reach Record Lows [11 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Factors Driving Business Investment [10 Jan 2012]
Hopes and Fears 2012 [10 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Quantitative Easing in the UK [8 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: A Jobs Boost for the US Economy [8 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Natural Disasters and their Economic Impact [7 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision Quiz on Economics of Unemployment [5 Jan 2012]

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