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CPI, RPI overshoot targets.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010
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The UK’s Consumer Price Index for November 2010 was 3.3% and the Retail Price Index 4.7% Details here.. There is plenty of food for thought about the role of the Bank of England’s MPC, and the causes of inflation. Students could investigate the extent that the recent surge is a result of Cost Push or Demand Pull factors, and possible policy approaches.

A useful tool for students to create their own graphs is this RPI Dataset mentioned in by Simon Rogers  in yesterday’s copy of The Guardian.

Supply shortages have caused increases in some food prices as this seasonal video feature illustrates. However surges in demand for cotton clothing in China have helped to push clothing prices upwards.

The ONS point out that the UK CPI rate was significantly higher at 3.2 per cent compared to the EU’s CPI figure of 2.3 per cent, which may limit the UK’s competitiveness over time.

Yesterday Andrew Sentance, one of the members of the MPC, put the case for an interest rate rise, to dampen some inflationary pressures, but today’s unemployment figures for November 2010 could be cited in a case against raising interest rates. Other comments have implied that the rise in CPI and RPI may strengthen the case against Quantitative Easing.

The above target inflation rate is not good news for savers, and the front page of today’s Telegraph is grim reading for those of us looking for real rates of return on deposits in the banks or building societies. “The dearth of decent savings products was laid bare by figures from the personal finance website Moneyfacts which showed that there were just three accounts – out of a total of 2,203 on the market – that paid a real rate of return, and only one for higher-rate taxpayers.”

Students may begin to appreciate the difficulties of reconciling conflicting macroeconomic policy objectives of stable prices, low interest rates, stable employment levels, with the needs of savers.

 

 


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