The Wrong Kind of Inflation?

Invited as the obligatory economist to my institution’s Salaries Committee, I spent lunchtime today discussing what sort of pay rise we deserve (huge, of course) and the sort of pay rise we might receive (rather less than huge, we suspect). I filled a happy half hour being questioned by my colleagues on the difference between RPI, CPI, RPIX, the CBI, the FBI, and even the CIA.

The RPI offers us the most hope - it measures inflation as higher than CPI, as the latter ignores mortgage repayments and other costs associated with the housing sector - but the real question which has bothered me of late is the combination of slowing demand growth in economies such as the UK (a major symptom being a stalling housing market) and continued inflationary pressure. In other economies such as Australia and China, inflation is the result of booming production and sales - although both economies (and many commentators) are still concerned about the impact of these increases in costs and prices.

But in the UK and the USA there are genuine fears over stagflation - the combination of stagnant growth and rising prices. This can be shown most dramatically on a Misery Index, which adds the inflation rate to the unemployment rate. The Misery Index for the UK has hovered below 8% in recent years (contrast this with figures close to 30% in the 1970s) and genuinely seriously stagflation seems remote. But the policy restrictions it brings (lowering interest rates to boost growth and confidence fuels higher prices, yet higher interest rates to counter inflationary pressure will damage growth) are very real - in particular for a Monetary Policy Committee who are briefed to control inflation as a primary objective.

The key question could be: can cost-push inflation (a supply-side issue) be tackled effectively by changes in the base rate (a demand management policy)?

The interest rate decision announced this week may provide a clearer picture, but perhaps like British Rail and snow, maybe what the MPC are dreading this winter is the wrong kind of inflation on the tracks.

Unit 2 Macro: Cyclical and Structural Economic Issues Facing the UK [23 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Evaluation on Supply-Side Policies [21 May 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: Game Theory and Business Economics [21 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Migration and the UK Economy [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Measuring Inflation in the UK [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Real Interest Rates [20 May 2012]
Q&A: What do we need to know about output gaps? [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Output Gap [20 May 2012]
Revision notes on unemployment [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Bank Cuts UK growth Forecast for 2012 [16 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision Presentation on the Price Mechanism [16 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision on Rice Prices [13 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Price Elasticity of Supply [13 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision Notes on Supply-side Policies [10 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision Blogs on Markets and Intervention [10 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision Quiz and Game on Market Prices [10 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Model answer for revision data question [9 May 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: The Dawn of a Shareholder Spring? [8 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Monetary Policy and Inflation Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Aggregate Demand Glossary [5 May 2012]
Macro Revision - Key Statistics on the UK Economy [4 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Climate Change Policies - Finding the Right Mix [30 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Using the Cost-Benefit Principle [30 Apr 2012]
Macro Revision: Putting Things in Context [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: Revision on Contestable Markets [8 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Inflation and the Business Environment [6 Apr 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: Revision on Scale Economies and MES [5 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision on Price Elasticity of Supply [5 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision on Elasticity of Demand (for Rice) [3 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: The Collapsing Price of Carbon [3 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision on Producer Subsidies [2 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Real Economic Data [2 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Real Disposable Income [2 Apr 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: Revision on Scale Economies, Technology and Prices [1 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision on Maximum Rents in Housing [1 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision on Producer Cartels [31 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Index Numbers [31 Mar 2012]
Posen on slower growth in the UK compared to the USA [30 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Brazilian coffee buffer stock hit by falling prices [29 Mar 2012]
Life in the Slow Lane - UK Growth in 2011 Lags the Euro Area [28 Mar 2012]
George Buckley at the Millfield Economics Society [28 Mar 2012]
Beyond the Bike - Monetary Policy in Africa [28 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Evaluating 3 Years of Quantitative Easing [27 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: The Tax on Beer [16 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Inequality - The Rise of Fuel Poverty [15 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Video Resources on the Euro Crisis [10 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Policies to Drive Economic Recovery [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: 50 years of anti-smoking campaigns and awareness [6 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Breaking Down the Cost of Gas [4 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Might Oil Prices Bring another Recession? [4 Mar 2012]
Economies hooked on central bank stimulants? [4 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: King on the UK Economy [15 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Signs of Progress for Zimbabwe [29 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Inflation [26 Jan 2012]
Inflation - what’s up, what’s down and what’s going to happen next [17 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Look Upwards to Find the next Downturn [15 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Quantitative Easing in the UK [8 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Natural Disasters and their Economic Impact [7 Jan 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Low Cost Airlines Beat the Recession [1 Jan 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Biomass Subsidies and Timber Prices [30 Dec 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: The UK Housing Market in 2011 [26 Dec 2011]
Unit 3 Micro: Sub Normal Profits - BP Leaves the Solar Industry [21 Dec 2011]
Unit 3 Micro: Oligopoly and Duopoly in Bus Markets [20 Dec 2011]
Rising prices and falling real incomes [13 Dec 2011]
Unit 3 Micro: Tacit Collusion in the Supermarket [27 Nov 2011]
Unit 1 Micro: 50 Years since the end of the Max Wage in Football [23 Nov 2011]
Beyond the Bike - The Value of Money [19 Nov 2011]
Pasty Prices - Something to Chew Over [19 Nov 2011]
AS Macro: The State of British Business [13 Nov 2011]
Unit 3 Micro: Unilever hit by rising costs [6 Nov 2011]
Australia lowers interest rate to 4.5% [1 Nov 2011]
Unit 3 Micro: Examples of Price Discrimination in Action [31 Oct 2011]
Unit 1 Micro: Economists attack food price speculation [24 Oct 2011]
Unit 3 Micro: Ofcom gives stamp of approval for flexible pricing in mail [21 Oct 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: World Food Day [16 Oct 2011]
Can the “invisible hand” solve Africa’s poverty? [13 Oct 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Unit Labour Costs and Inflation [12 Oct 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: UK Inflation Charts [12 Oct 2011]
University Challenged [11 Oct 2011]
Unit 1 Micro: Producing Coffee - Kenya in Pictures [4 Oct 2011]
Unit 1 Micro: Homework Assignment on Market Prices [2 Oct 2011]
Unit 1 Micro: Exercise on Equilibrium Market Prices [27 Sep 2011]
Unit 1 Micro: Exercise on Market Supply [26 Sep 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: IMF Flags up Risks of Double Dip [20 Sep 2011]
Inflation in India [18 Sep 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Interest Rates and Income Inequality [16 Sep 2011]
Study Note - Macroeconomic policy objectives [16 Sep 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Economic Growth and Inequality [14 Sep 2011]
Study Note - What is Macroeconomics? [13 Sep 2011]
Starter Activity: Health Economics [1 Sep 2011]
Monetary Policy Roundtable [25 Jul 2011]
Unit 1 Micro: Cotton Prices and the Retail Price of Clothing [13 Jul 2011]
Unit 1 Micro: Economics of Volatile Corn Prices [12 Jul 2011]
Zondle Game: 10 Question Quiz about OPEC [11 Jul 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Dangers of High Inflation [11 Jul 2011]
Unit 3 Micro: Oligopsony - Dairy Losses Drive Farmers from the Fields [10 Jul 2011]
Unit 1 Micro: FirstBuy, Affordability and Effective Demand in Property [10 Jul 2011]
Unit 1 Micro: High price of petrol drains demand [9 Jul 2011]
AS Micro: Fears over a century of hunger [22 Jun 2011]
AQA ECON4 Context [20 Jun 2011]

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