The dangers of export dependency

This short article on the BBC website is a really useful one for students revising their international trade economics. For years many of the ‘dynamic globalisers’ in far east Asia have built their turbo-charged growth around exporting to developed economy markets. Huge increases in investment and a clear focus on creating the capacity to drive exports higher have worked in the sense of rising per capita incomes, ballooning trade surpluses and an increase in global economic influence. In contrast domestic demand is many Asian economies is limited by low per capita incomes and a very high household savings rate. This in turn is partly the result of the absence of social safety nets in terms of state pension and welfare provision.

But there are dangers in growth being export dependent. For countries heavily reliant on exporting commodities, the volatility of world prices provides an obvious risk. But even with manufactured products whose prices are more predictable, export-driven countries risk suffering when there is a downturn in global demand leaving huge amounts of spare capacity.

The President of the Asian Investment Bank Haruhiko Kuroda is quoted as saying

“Over the longer term, developing Asia is starting the process of rebalancing growth from excessive dependence on external demand to greater resilience on both consumption and investment.”

Many countries are starting this process. The Chinese fiscal stimulus is a good example - The Wall Street Journal reports that “A growing number of companies, from tire and excavator makers to fast-food chains, are benefiting from China’s $585 billion stimulus program, which has quickly funneled money into everything from bridges to consumers’ pockets.” This superb piece from the WSJ offers some ideas for the types of stimulus policies that might work in China to permanently raise the income of the poor and provide a stronger floor of domestic demand for the Chinese economy.

Investment in Energy Infrastructure [23 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Cyclical and Structural Economic Issues Facing the UK [23 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Evaluation on Supply-Side Policies [21 May 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: Game Theory and Business Economics [21 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Current Account of the Balance of Payments [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: UK Trade in Services [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Migration and the UK Economy [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Positive and Negative Multiplier Effects [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Importance of Productivity [20 May 2012]
Q&A: What do we need to know about output gaps? [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Output Gap [20 May 2012]
Revision notes on unemployment [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Bank Cuts UK growth Forecast for 2012 [16 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision Presentation on Elasticity of Demand [16 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Price Elasticity of Supply [13 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Income Elasticity of Demand [13 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Price Elasticity of Demand [13 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Asymmetric Information [12 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: De-Merit Goods [12 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision Notes on Supply-side Policies [10 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Model answer for revision data question [9 May 2012]
Made in China - but not quite so cheaply…... [7 May 2012]
F585: Recent Articles of Relevance [6 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Growth and Development Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Trade and Balance of Payments Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Economic Cycle Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Aggregate Demand Glossary [5 May 2012]
Macro Revision - Key Statistics on the UK Economy [4 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Using the Cost-Benefit Principle [30 Apr 2012]
Macro Revision: Putting Things in Context [29 Apr 2012]
Tullow Oil and African Development [25 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: The Euro Zone Crisis (Revision) [22 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Heathow’s Capacity and Connectivity Crunch [22 Apr 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: The Third Industrial Revolution [20 Apr 2012]
Ukraine Hotel ‘Bandits’? [12 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Skills Shortages Hold Back Recovery [12 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Globalisation and the Growth of Ports [10 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision on Price Elasticity of Supply [5 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The UK Balance of Payments in 2011 [4 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision on Elasticity of Demand (for Rice) [3 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate [3 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Productivity Improvements in China [3 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: The Collapsing Price of Carbon [3 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Floating and Managed Floating Exchange Rates [2 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision on Maximum Rents in Housing [1 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision on Producer Cartels [31 Mar 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: Revision on Fixed and Variable Costs [31 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Capital Investment [30 Mar 2012]
Global Economy- the 2012 BRICS Summit [28 Mar 2012]
Life in the Slow Lane - UK Growth in 2011 Lags the Euro Area [28 Mar 2012]
George Buckley at the Millfield Economics Society [28 Mar 2012]
Beyond the Bike - Monetary Policy in Africa [28 Mar 2012]
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Unit 4 Macro: Evaluating 3 Years of Quantitative Easing [27 Mar 2012]
Solar Panels and Tariffs [21 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Government launches New Buy Loan Guarantee Scheme [12 Mar 2012]
Evidence of the dangers of protectionism [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Policies to Drive Economic Recovery [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Sovereign Wealth Funds [4 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Might Oil Prices Bring another Recession? [4 Mar 2012]
Mortgage interest rates, LIBOR and game theory [3 Mar 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: Volkswagen targets growth markets [25 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Rosling on China and the UK Converging [24 Feb 2012]
The Economics of Climate Change - Stern 5 Years On [21 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Dash for Gas in Mozambique [17 Feb 2012]
A return to Glass-Steagall to prevent another crash? A lesson from economic history. [17 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Is the UK Economy Turning a Corner? [15 Feb 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: King on the UK Economy [15 Feb 2012]
Economics Explained, by Evan [12 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: China’s Trade Engine is Spluttering [10 Feb 2012]
Martin Wolf on Global Shocks [10 Feb 2012]
Competitiveness [8 Feb 2012]
Russia’s monopoly power over gas supplies [5 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Growth and Development - Some Indicators [30 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Focus on India - Comparative Advantage [27 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Trade and Growth [27 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Inflation [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Carbon Emissions and Growth [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Per Capita Incomes [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Changing Economic Structure [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Can China Stay Competitive [25 Jan 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Can the UK Computer Games Industry Grow [24 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Focus on India - Economic Growth [24 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Population Shift in China [23 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Exporting to the Booming Chinese Economy [23 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Money, Debt and the New World Order [22 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Russia Joins the WTO [22 Jan 2012]
Unit1 Micro: Processed Meat and Cancer Risk - Information Failure? [17 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Videos on Productivity [17 Jan 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: World’s Largest Solar Plant Opens [15 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Look Upwards to Find the next Downturn [15 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Frontier Markets - the New BRICS? [15 Jan 2012]
Beyond the Bike - The Importance of Remittances [15 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Time to Re-Boot the British Economy [14 Jan 2012]
China’s newest 5 year plan - and how it could change the world! [12 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Economics of Fiscal Deficit Reduction [12 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Competitive Advantage in Trade (Some Videos) [12 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: UK Bond Yields Reach Record Lows [11 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: UK Trade Patterns [11 Jan 2012]
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