Questioning the natural rate of unemployment

Roger Farmer questions the existence of a stable natural rate of unemployment in this post to the Vox Blog.

He focuses his attention on the Beveridge Curve which tracks three macroeconomic variables - unemployment, inflation and the level of unfilled job vacancies. He argues that the religious adherence to a natural rate concept (an equilibrium rate of unemployment to which an economy gravitates over time) has little empirical support. Each and every recession in the USA has had a permanent effect on the unemployment rate - he supports the idea of hysteresis in the labour market.

“When households feel wealthy, that belief is self-fulfilling. Consumers spend a lot, firms hire workers, and the economy comes to rest at a point on the Beveridge curve with low unemployment and high vacancies. When the values of houses, factories, and machines fall, households spend less, firms lay off workers, and the economy comes to rest at a point on the Beveridge curve with high unemployment and low vacancies. Both situations – and anything in between – are zero-profit equilibria. High inflation makes the trade-off between unemployment and vacancies less favourable, and in the steady state, any inflation rate is consistent with any unemployment rate.”

More here

Unit 2 Macro: Cyclical and Structural Economic Issues Facing the UK [23 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Evaluation on Supply-Side Policies [21 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Migration and the UK Economy [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Positive and Negative Multiplier Effects [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Importance of Productivity [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Measuring Unemployment in the UK [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Measuring Inflation in the UK [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Real Interest Rates [20 May 2012]
Q&A: What do we need to know about output gaps? [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Output Gap [20 May 2012]
Revision notes on unemployment [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Bank Cuts UK growth Forecast for 2012 [16 May 2012]
Grexit - Andrew Balls on Greece and the Euro [16 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Economics of a Minimum Wage [12 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Poverty and Inequality and Market Failure [12 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision Notes on Supply-side Policies [10 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Model answer for revision data question [9 May 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: The Dawn of a Shareholder Spring? [8 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Monetary Policy and Inflation Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Unemployment Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Economic Cycle Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Aggregate Demand Glossary [5 May 2012]
Macro Revision - Key Statistics on the UK Economy [4 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Using the Cost-Benefit Principle [30 Apr 2012]
Macro Revision: Putting Things in Context [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Spanish unemployed head to Argentina [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Britain back in Recession [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: The Euro Zone Crisis (Revision) [22 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Adecco and Monopsony Power [22 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Better news on jobs in the UK? [19 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Skills Shortages Hold Back Recovery [12 Apr 2012]
Superb article on unemployment [8 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Inflation and the Business Environment [6 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: How the Economic Cycle affects Businesses [6 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Real Economic Data [2 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Unemployment Scarring Effects [2 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Real Disposable Income [2 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Pain in Spain as Fiscal Austerity Bites [1 Apr 2012]
Posen on slower growth in the UK compared to the USA [30 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Capital Investment [30 Mar 2012]
Intergenerational Equity - Fairness and the Slump [28 Mar 2012]
Blanchflower calls for more action to address youth jobless crisis [28 Mar 2012]
Life in the Slow Lane - UK Growth in 2011 Lags the Euro Area [28 Mar 2012]
George Buckley at the Millfield Economics Society [28 Mar 2012]
Beyond the Bike - Monetary Policy in Africa [28 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Evaluating 3 Years of Quantitative Easing [27 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: The Tax on Beer [16 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Inequality - The Rise of Fuel Poverty [15 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Seasonal and Structural Unemployment [15 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Video Resources on the Euro Crisis [10 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Policies to Drive Economic Recovery [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro - Labour Migration and the Economy [5 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Might Oil Prices Bring another Recession? [4 Mar 2012]
Economies hooked on central bank stimulants? [4 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: A Man Regains his Self Respect [25 Feb 2012]
Unit 1 Economics: Panorama - Poor America [17 Feb 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: King on the UK Economy [15 Feb 2012]
Economics Explained, by Evan [12 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: China’s Trade Engine is Spluttering [10 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Growth and Development - Some Indicators [30 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Signs of Progress for Zimbabwe [29 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Inflation [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Changing Economic Structure [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Money, Debt and the New World Order [22 Jan 2012]
France and Flexible Employment [22 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Living below the Breadline [19 Jan 2012]
Inflation - what’s up, what’s down and what’s going to happen next [17 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Economics of Fiscal Deficit Reduction [12 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Factors Driving Business Investment [10 Jan 2012]
Hopes and Fears 2012 [10 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Quantitative Easing in the UK [8 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: A Jobs Boost for the US Economy [8 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision Quiz on Economics of Unemployment [5 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Video Resources on Unemployment [3 Jan 2012]
2011 in Review - The US Economy [27 Dec 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: The UK Housing Market in 2011 [26 Dec 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Brazil Overtakes UK in Economic Size [26 Dec 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: The Rise in Self Employment [17 Dec 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Long Term Unemployment - A Human Story [15 Dec 2011]
Rising prices and falling real incomes [13 Dec 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Does UK Manufacturing have a Future? [30 Nov 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Will a Youth Jobs Subsidy Work? [30 Nov 2011]
Where is the UK Economy? National Output [22 Nov 2011]
UK unemployment in November 2011 - a video overview [22 Nov 2011]
Beyond the Bike - The Value of Money [19 Nov 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: A Prezi on Unemployment Policies [16 Nov 2011]
AS Macro: The State of British Business [13 Nov 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: America’s hour-glass economy [9 Nov 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Video Clips on Unemployment [6 Nov 2011]
Unit 3 Micro: Impulses to Change Management Models [5 Nov 2011]
Australia lowers interest rate to 4.5% [1 Nov 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Unemployment Chart Resource Download [29 Oct 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: A Widening Regional Divide in Life Expectancy [19 Oct 2011]
Can the “invisible hand” solve Africa’s poverty? [13 Oct 2011]
UK Unemployment in October 2011 [12 Oct 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Unit Labour Costs and Inflation [12 Oct 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: UK suffers a weak recovery [12 Oct 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: UK Inflation Charts [12 Oct 2011]
Why Is Macroeconomics Such A Mess? [11 Oct 2011]
University Challenged [11 Oct 2011]

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