Predicting recessions - a mugs game

There was a lot of noise about yesterday’s (provisional) GDP data with national output up 0.8% in the 3rd quarter double the city consensus. Plenty of noise yes but not much substance. This data is an early estimate and will almost certainly be revised in the months ahead. What we are seeing is a fairly standard rebound from a deep recession and it cannot be unexpected given the scale of the fiscal and monetary stimulus imparted on the British economy since recession hit us in late 2008-early 2009! On these occasions it is best to switch off the rolling news channels and think about some more interesting macroeconomics than the GDP stats!

Two members of the Bank of England have made important comments in the last couple of days. First Mervyn King was highly critical of the approach to risks taken by the banking system in the run up to the global financial crisis and hinted at support for structural reforms. Secondly Charlie Bean (Chief Economist) has given a talk to the Royal Statistics Society about the difficulties in making accurate macroeconomic forecasts - reported here in the Telegraph. There is quite a lot in what he says about the inherent problems in forecasting short term movements in prices, output and jobs. There are some good evaluation points in here for A2 macroeconomists.

Unit 2 Macro: Cyclical and Structural Economic Issues Facing the UK [23 May 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: Game Theory and Business Economics [21 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Positive and Negative Multiplier Effects [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Importance of Productivity [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Human Development Index (HDI) [20 May 2012]
Q&A: What do we need to know about output gaps? [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Output Gap [20 May 2012]
Revision notes on unemployment [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Bank Cuts UK growth Forecast for 2012 [16 May 2012]
Grexit - Andrew Balls on Greece and the Euro [16 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Asymmetric Information [12 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: De-Merit Goods [12 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision Notes on Supply-side Policies [10 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Growth and Development Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Unemployment Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Fiscal Policy Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Economic Cycle Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Aggregate Demand Glossary [5 May 2012]
Macro Revision - Key Statistics on the UK Economy [4 May 2012]
Macro Revision: Putting Things in Context [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Britain back in Recession [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: The Euro Zone Crisis (Revision) [22 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Managing the Global Commons - Limits to GDP [15 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: How the Economic Cycle affects Businesses [6 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The UK Balance of Payments in 2011 [4 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate [3 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Productivity Improvements in China [3 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: The Collapsing Price of Carbon [3 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Floating and Managed Floating Exchange Rates [2 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Real Economic Data [2 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Pain in Spain as Fiscal Austerity Bites [1 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Gross National Happiness in Bhutan [31 Mar 2012]
Posen on slower growth in the UK compared to the USA [30 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Capital Investment [30 Mar 2012]
Global Economy- the 2012 BRICS Summit [28 Mar 2012]
Intergenerational Equity - Fairness and the Slump [28 Mar 2012]
Life in the Slow Lane - UK Growth in 2011 Lags the Euro Area [28 Mar 2012]
George Buckley at the Millfield Economics Society [28 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Evaluating 3 Years of Quantitative Easing [27 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: The Tax on Beer [16 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Inequality - The Rise of Fuel Poverty [15 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Government launches New Buy Loan Guarantee Scheme [12 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Policies to Drive Economic Recovery [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Might Oil Prices Bring another Recession? [4 Mar 2012]
Mortgage interest rates, LIBOR and game theory [3 Mar 2012]
The Economics of Climate Change - Stern 5 Years On [21 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Dash for Gas in Mozambique [17 Feb 2012]
A return to Glass-Steagall to prevent another crash? A lesson from economic history. [17 Feb 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: King on the UK Economy [15 Feb 2012]
Martin Wolf on Global Shocks [10 Feb 2012]
Stephanie Flanders explains Quantitative Easing in 60 seconds [9 Feb 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Focus on India - Comparative Advantage [27 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Trade and Growth [27 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Carbon Emissions and Growth [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Per Capita Incomes [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Changing Economic Structure [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Can the UK Computer Games Industry Grow [24 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Focus on India - Economic Growth [24 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Money, Debt and the New World Order [22 Jan 2012]
Unit1 Micro: Processed Meat and Cancer Risk - Information Failure? [17 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Frontier Markets - the New BRICS? [15 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Economics of Fiscal Deficit Reduction [12 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: UK Bond Yields Reach Record Lows [11 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Factors Driving Business Investment [10 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Quantitative Easing in the UK [8 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Natural Disasters and their Economic Impact [7 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Exchange Rate Economics - Where next for the US Dollar? [31 Dec 2011]
2011 in Review - The US Economy [27 Dec 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: The UK Housing Market in 2011 [26 Dec 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Brazil Overtakes UK in Economic Size [26 Dec 2011]
Economics of Deforestation [20 Dec 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: The Rise in Self Employment [17 Dec 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Does UK Manufacturing have a Future? [30 Nov 2011]
Where is the UK Economy? National Output [22 Nov 2011]
Beyond the Bike - What is the value of life in Africa? [19 Nov 2011]
LSE Lecture: Daniel Kahneman - Thinking Fast and Slow [15 Nov 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Should the EU introduce a Tobin Tax? [14 Nov 2011]
Unit 1 Micro: Asymmetric Information - Buying a Used Car [14 Nov 2011]
AS Macro: The State of British Business [13 Nov 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Video Clips on Unemployment [6 Nov 2011]
Unit 3 Micro: Impulses to Change Management Models [5 Nov 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: A New £50 comes into circulation [2 Nov 2011]
AS and A2 Macro: GDP resources from Planet Money [31 Oct 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Should TNCs make full disclosure on factory wages? [30 Oct 2011]
Can the “invisible hand” solve Africa’s poverty? [13 Oct 2011]
Keynes Prize: The Economics of Cities (2) [13 Oct 2011]
Keynes Prize: The Economics of Cities (1) [12 Oct 2011]
UK Unemployment in October 2011 [12 Oct 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Unit Labour Costs and Inflation [12 Oct 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: UK suffers a weak recovery [12 Oct 2011]
Why Is Macroeconomics Such A Mess? [11 Oct 2011]
Unit 3 Micro: Tube Drivers set to earn £50,000 a year [3 Oct 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Exercise on National income [27 Sep 2011]
Unit 1 Micro: Drink Driving and Government Intervention [26 Sep 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Greek Economy at Default’s Door [25 Sep 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: IMF Flags up Risks of Double Dip [20 Sep 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Interest Rates and Income Inequality [16 Sep 2011]
Study Note - Measuring national income [16 Sep 2011]
Study Note - Value Added and Contributions to a Nation’s GDP [16 Sep 2011]
Study Note - Introduction to GDP [15 Sep 2011]

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