Living in a multi-polar world economy

Although many millions of people in the lowest income countries have suffered greatly from the world recession, for many emerging countries growth has continued apace and the world economy is more resilient than the consensus view believes. This was one of the arguments explored by Jim O’Neill, Head of Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research for Goldman Sachs, in his talk to the 40th Anniversary meeting of the Eton College Keynes Society last night. The creator of the BRIC acronym was also quite bullish about prospects for the UK economy, with Britain able to take advantage of a competitive exchange rate and a strong rebound in global economic activity driven forward by fast growth in emerging market countries.

One of the key changes in the world economy has been the surge in domestic demand growth in emerging countries. Domestic demand (made up of consumption + government spending + capital investment) contracted by 3.4% in the advanced nations in 2009 whereas it expanded by 13% in China last year. And, whilst there are fears that the Chinese economy will over-heat and experience the bursting of it’s own financial bubble, policy-makers in Beijing are already prepared to tighten policy through higher interest rates, releasing the remnimbi to appreciate against the US dollar and increasing reserve asset ratios.

Much of the talk focused on the remarkable change in the size of emerging market economies.

In the last decade, the increase in the dollar value of Chinese GDP is seven times the change in Japanese GDP. Similar fast growth rates in BRIC nations and the Next-11 tell us that the world economy has more than one driver of demand and growth.

Emerging markets are providing a turbo boost for the global economy and this provides huge opportunities - from Italian companies selling luxury goods to newly rich consumers in China to Tesco’s plans (within five years) to have more stores in China than it does in the UK. (The supermarket chain is planning to open in 80 shopping centres that it is developing in China by 2016).

China’s switch towards domestically-generated growth with a higher share of consumption in their GDP will help to address some of the structural trade imbalances that have been a long-running sore in relationships between China and the US and some other countries. A renewed appreciation of the Remnimbi will also help this process.

A recent video interview with Jim O’Neill can be found here And here is a recent article from the Guardian on the political pressures for China to allow their currency to appreciate against the US dollar.

Unit 2 Macro: Cyclical and Structural Economic Issues Facing the UK [23 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Evaluation on Supply-Side Policies [21 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Current Account of the Balance of Payments [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: UK Trade in Services [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Positive and Negative Multiplier Effects [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Importance of Productivity [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Human Development Index (HDI) [20 May 2012]
Q&A: What do we need to know about output gaps? [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Output Gap [20 May 2012]
Revision notes on unemployment [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Bank Cuts UK growth Forecast for 2012 [16 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision Presentation on Elasticity of Demand [16 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Income Elasticity of Demand [13 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Price Elasticity of Demand [13 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision Notes on Supply-side Policies [10 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Model answer for revision data question [9 May 2012]
Made in China - but not quite so cheaply…... [7 May 2012]
F585: Recent Articles of Relevance [6 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Growth and Development Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Trade and Balance of Payments Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Fiscal Policy Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Economic Cycle Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Aggregate Demand Glossary [5 May 2012]
Macro Revision - Key Statistics on the UK Economy [4 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Using the Cost-Benefit Principle [30 Apr 2012]
Macro Revision: Putting Things in Context [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Britain back in Recession [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: The Euro Zone Crisis (Revision) [22 Apr 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: The Third Industrial Revolution [20 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Managing the Global Commons - Limits to GDP [15 Apr 2012]
Ukraine Hotel ‘Bandits’? [12 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Skills Shortages Hold Back Recovery [12 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Globalisation and the Growth of Ports [10 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The UK Balance of Payments in 2011 [4 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision on Elasticity of Demand (for Rice) [3 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Productivity Improvements in China [3 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Real Economic Data [2 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision on Maximum Rents in Housing [1 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision on Producer Cartels [31 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Gross National Happiness in Bhutan [31 Mar 2012]
Posen on slower growth in the UK compared to the USA [30 Mar 2012]
Global Economy- the 2012 BRICS Summit [28 Mar 2012]
Life in the Slow Lane - UK Growth in 2011 Lags the Euro Area [28 Mar 2012]
George Buckley at the Millfield Economics Society [28 Mar 2012]
Beyond the Bike - Monetary Policy in Africa [28 Mar 2012]
OCR A2 Economics Unit F585 The Global Economy June 2012 [27 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Evaluating 3 Years of Quantitative Easing [27 Mar 2012]
Solar Panels and Tariffs [21 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Government launches New Buy Loan Guarantee Scheme [12 Mar 2012]
Evidence of the dangers of protectionism [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Sovereign Wealth Funds [4 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Might Oil Prices Bring another Recession? [4 Mar 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: Volkswagen targets growth markets [25 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Rosling on China and the UK Converging [24 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Dash for Gas in Mozambique [17 Feb 2012]
Economics Explained, by Evan [12 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: China’s Trade Engine is Spluttering [10 Feb 2012]
Martin Wolf on Global Shocks [10 Feb 2012]
Russia’s monopoly power over gas supplies [5 Feb 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Focus on India - Comparative Advantage [27 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Trade and Growth [27 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Inflation [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Carbon Emissions and Growth [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Per Capita Incomes [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Changing Economic Structure [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Can China Stay Competitive [25 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Focus on India - Economic Growth [24 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Population Shift in China [23 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Exporting to the Booming Chinese Economy [23 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Money, Debt and the New World Order [22 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Russia Joins the WTO [22 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Videos on Productivity [17 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Look Upwards to Find the next Downturn [15 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Frontier Markets - the New BRICS? [15 Jan 2012]
Beyond the Bike - The Importance of Remittances [15 Jan 2012]
China’s newest 5 year plan - and how it could change the world! [12 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Competitive Advantage in Trade (Some Videos) [12 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: UK Trade Patterns [11 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Factors Driving Business Investment [10 Jan 2012]
Hopes and Fears 2012 [10 Jan 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Low Cost Airlines Beat the Recession [1 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Brazil Overtakes UK in Economic Size [26 Dec 2011]
Jim O’Neill to open the Economics Teacher National Conference 2012 [15 Dec 2011]
Unit 3 Micro: Brand Loyalty in Mobile Phones [27 Nov 2011]
Where is the UK Economy? National Output [22 Nov 2011]
Jim O’Neill - The Growth Map: Economic Opportunity in the BRICs and Beyond [22 Nov 2011]
Beyond the Bike - The Value of Money [19 Nov 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Should the EU introduce a Tobin Tax? [14 Nov 2011]
AS Macro: The State of British Business [13 Nov 2011]
Latest world trade data [6 Nov 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: China and India - Notes from Martin Wolf [6 Nov 2011]
Unit 3 Micro: Time of Use Pricing for Energy [2 Nov 2011]
Unit 3 Micro: Economies of Scale and the Kinect [31 Oct 2011]
AS and A2 Macro: GDP resources from Planet Money [31 Oct 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Should TNCs make full disclosure on factory wages? [30 Oct 2011]
Unit 1 Micro: Is the Sun Dipping on Solar Subsidies? [27 Oct 2011]
Unit 1 Micro: University fees and elasticity of demand [24 Oct 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Economic Importance of Investment [19 Oct 2011]
Can the “invisible hand” solve Africa’s poverty? [13 Oct 2011]
Keynes Prize: The Economics of Cities (2) [13 Oct 2011]

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