Ireland’s Economic Crisis Deepens - Goodbye AAA

Ireland is in deep economic crisis. Real GDP is shrinking at an annual rate of over 8% and the unemployment rate climbed to 11% in March taking the jobless rate to a level last seen in the mid 1990s. Consumer price inflation is now negative - the prices of goods and services are falling as are asset prices, especially property where the housing market is mired in deep slump. It will come as no surprise that consumer confidence has collapsed and that the Irish government’s own finances are in a real mess - income taxes may have to rise to plug some of the widening gap - the fiscal deficit now means that Ireland will suffer a further credit downgrading in the near future. Retail sales are falling at an annual rate of 20%. The Standard and Poor’s ratings agency downgraded Ireland’s debt from its prime AAA rating to a AA+, with a “negative” outlook a couple of days ago and bond yields on 10 year treasury debt have more than doubled in the last two years and now stand at over 6%. This raises the cost of servicing a ballooning level of public sector debt.

A quick summary of where Ireland is:

CPI (Consumer Price Index)  -1.7%

Interest Rate   2% Apr, 2009 (set by the ECB)

Unemployment   11% Mar, 2009

Consumer Confidence   -24 Apr, 2008

Budget deficit - forecast to be 11% of GDP in 2009 - almost four times the approved limit for countries inside the Euro Area

Retail Sales   -19.9% Jan, 2009

GDP (Gross Domestic Product)  -7.5% Oct, 2008

Ireland is a salutary tale of a country that did not adjust to the challenges and demands of joining a single currency - they went on a borrowing and spending binge fuelled by rapid asset price inflation and the consequences are awful. The Celtic Tiger economy is now looking distinctly ill. What price that by the end of 2009 or in the spring of 2010 countries such as Spain Ireland, Portugal and Greece decide to leave the single currency and revert back to their own currencies - flexibly pegged to the Euro in a loose version of the ERM but will scope for depreciation as a way out of damaging recession?

Unit 2 Macro: Cyclical and Structural Economic Issues Facing the UK [23 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Evaluation on Supply-Side Policies [21 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Positive and Negative Multiplier Effects [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Importance of Productivity [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Measuring Unemployment in the UK [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Measuring Inflation in the UK [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Real Interest Rates [20 May 2012]
Q&A: What do we need to know about output gaps? [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Output Gap [20 May 2012]
Revision notes on unemployment [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Bank Cuts UK growth Forecast for 2012 [16 May 2012]
Grexit - Andrew Balls on Greece and the Euro [16 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Economics of a Minimum Wage [12 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision Notes on Supply-side Policies [10 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Model answer for revision data question [9 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: 10 Key Revision Topics for EdExcel [7 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Monetary Policy and Inflation Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Trade and Balance of Payments Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Unemployment Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Fiscal Policy Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Economic Cycle Glossary [5 May 2012]
Macro Revision - Key Statistics on the UK Economy [4 May 2012]
Robert Schiller - Finance and the Good Society [1 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Using the Cost-Benefit Principle [30 Apr 2012]
Macro Revision: Putting Things in Context [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Spanish unemployed head to Argentina [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Britain back in Recession [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: The Euro Zone Crisis (Revision) [22 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Better news on jobs in the UK? [19 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Skills Shortages Hold Back Recovery [12 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Globalisation and the Growth of Ports [10 Apr 2012]
Superb article on unemployment [8 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: How the Economic Cycle affects Businesses [6 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate [3 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Unemployment Scarring Effects [2 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Pain in Spain as Fiscal Austerity Bites [1 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Capital Investment [30 Mar 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: EU Imposes Further Price Cap on Mobile Phone Companies [29 Mar 2012]
Intergenerational Equity - Fairness and the Slump [28 Mar 2012]
Blanchflower calls for more action to address youth jobless crisis [28 Mar 2012]
Life in the Slow Lane - UK Growth in 2011 Lags the Euro Area [28 Mar 2012]
George Buckley at the Millfield Economics Society [28 Mar 2012]
Beyond the Bike - Monetary Policy in Africa [28 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: The Tax on Beer [16 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Inequality - The Rise of Fuel Poverty [15 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Seasonal and Structural Unemployment [15 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Video Resources on the Euro Crisis [10 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Enlarging the EU [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Policies to Drive Economic Recovery [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: News Videos on the German Economy [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro - Labour Migration and the Economy [5 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Might Oil Prices Bring another Recession? [4 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: A Man Regains his Self Respect [25 Feb 2012]
Pinterest: Board on Developments in the EU Economy [19 Feb 2012]
Unit 1 Economics: Panorama - Poor America [17 Feb 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: King on the UK Economy [15 Feb 2012]
Economics Explained, by Evan [12 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: China’s Trade Engine is Spluttering [10 Feb 2012]
Martin Wolf on Global Shocks [10 Feb 2012]
Trucks are the new way of measuring debt [1 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Growth and Development - Some Indicators [30 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Money, Debt and the New World Order [22 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Russia Joins the WTO [22 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Living below the Breadline [19 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: France loses her AAA credit rating [15 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Economics of Fiscal Deficit Reduction [12 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: UK Bond Yields Reach Record Lows [11 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Factors Driving Business Investment [10 Jan 2012]
Hopes and Fears 2012 [10 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: A Jobs Boost for the US Economy [8 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision Quiz on Economics of Unemployment [5 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Video Resources on Unemployment [3 Jan 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Low Cost Airlines Beat the Recession [1 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Exchange Rate Economics - Where next for the US Dollar? [31 Dec 2011]
European Economics: Resources on the CAP [28 Dec 2011]
2011 in Review - The US Economy [27 Dec 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: The UK Housing Market in 2011 [26 Dec 2011]
The Eurozone Crisis Explained (again!) [22 Dec 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: The Rise in Self Employment [17 Dec 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Long Term Unemployment - A Human Story [15 Dec 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Celebrating (?) Ten Years of Euro Notes and Coins [2 Dec 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Does UK Manufacturing have a Future? [30 Nov 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Will a Youth Jobs Subsidy Work? [30 Nov 2011]
Where is the UK Economy? National Output [22 Nov 2011]
UK unemployment in November 2011 - a video overview [22 Nov 2011]
Beyond the Bike - The Value of Money [19 Nov 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: A Prezi on Unemployment Policies [16 Nov 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Should the EU introduce a Tobin Tax? [14 Nov 2011]
AS Macro: The State of British Business [13 Nov 2011]
Eurozone crisis - a selection of resources [12 Nov 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: America’s hour-glass economy [9 Nov 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Video Clips on Unemployment [6 Nov 2011]
Unit 3 Micro: Impulses to Change Management Models [5 Nov 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Unemployment Chart Resource Download [29 Oct 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: A Widening Regional Divide in Life Expectancy [19 Oct 2011]
Can the “invisible hand” solve Africa’s poverty? [13 Oct 2011]
UK Unemployment in October 2011 [12 Oct 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Unit Labour Costs and Inflation [12 Oct 2011]
Skidelsky in Madrid [12 Oct 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: UK suffers a weak recovery [12 Oct 2011]

ECONOMICS TEACHER RESOURCE NEWSLETTER

Join over 6,000 other Economics Teachers in the UK and around the world who receive the tutor2u regular Economics Resource Email Newsletter. Get special offers, first news of latest resources, teaching ideas, conferences and workshops + loads of great ideas for teaching economics from our blog authors.