Inflation expectations spike higher

This is the kind of data chart that keeps central bankers awake at night.

The latest survey of inflation expectations from the Bank of England shows that people’s expectations of future price rises have risen sharply in the last three months. On average, respondents to the survey thought that prices were five per cent higher now than a year ago and expectations of where price inflation is heading have spiked up a full percentage point since the last survey in February.

Shifts in expectations lie at the heart of what is sometimes known as the expectations-augmented Phillips Curve. We see rising prices for many of the regularly purchased items in our shopping baskets and when the utility bills come through the letter box. And as our experiences of rising inflation become worse, so we anticipate further price rises in the near future. The danger for the Bank of England is of a wage-price response; a second round boost to wage demands from workers anxious to protect the real purchasing power of their take-home pay. This is a major threat to inflation-control in the medium term.

George Johns, economist at Barclays Capital was quoted in the Financial Times as saying that “To contain inflation, inflation expectations must be anchored.” The result is that the Bank of England may have to start raising official base interest rates to keep inflation in check even though the wider economy is moving into a slowdown phase.

Unit 2 Macro: Cyclical and Structural Economic Issues Facing the UK [23 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Evaluation on Supply-Side Policies [21 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Migration and the UK Economy [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Measuring Inflation in the UK [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Real Interest Rates [20 May 2012]
Q&A: What do we need to know about output gaps? [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Output Gap [20 May 2012]
Revision notes on unemployment [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Bank Cuts UK growth Forecast for 2012 [16 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Economics of a Minimum Wage [12 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision Notes on Supply-side Policies [10 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Model answer for revision data question [9 May 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: The Dawn of a Shareholder Spring? [8 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Monetary Policy and Inflation Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Economic Cycle Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Aggregate Demand Glossary [5 May 2012]
Macro Revision - Key Statistics on the UK Economy [4 May 2012]
Macro Revision: Putting Things in Context [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Adecco and Monopsony Power [22 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Inflation and the Business Environment [6 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Real Economic Data [2 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Real Disposable Income [2 Apr 2012]
Posen on slower growth in the UK compared to the USA [30 Mar 2012]
Life in the Slow Lane - UK Growth in 2011 Lags the Euro Area [28 Mar 2012]
George Buckley at the Millfield Economics Society [28 Mar 2012]
Beyond the Bike - Monetary Policy in Africa [28 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Evaluating 3 Years of Quantitative Easing [27 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: The Tax on Beer [16 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Video Resources on the Euro Crisis [10 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Policies to Drive Economic Recovery [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Might Oil Prices Bring another Recession? [4 Mar 2012]
Economies hooked on central bank stimulants? [4 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Highest and Lowest Paid Jobs in the UK [26 Feb 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: Low Pay in Supermarkets [24 Feb 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: King on the UK Economy [15 Feb 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Public Goods [11 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Signs of Progress for Zimbabwe [29 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Inflation [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Can the UK Computer Games Industry Grow [24 Jan 2012]
France and Flexible Employment [22 Jan 2012]
Inflation - what’s up, what’s down and what’s going to happen next [17 Jan 2012]
Unit1 Micro: Can a minimum wage create jobs? [16 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: UK Bond Yields Reach Record Lows [11 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Factors Driving Business Investment [10 Jan 2012]
Hopes and Fears 2012 [10 Jan 2012]
Economics at the Movies - Freakonomics [9 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Quantitative Easing in the UK [8 Jan 2012]
Rising prices and falling real incomes [13 Dec 2011]
Behavioural Economics: Herd Behaviour [28 Nov 2011]
Beyond the Bike - The Value of Money [19 Nov 2011]
Unit 3 Micro: Time of Use Pricing for Energy [2 Nov 2011]
Australia lowers interest rate to 4.5% [1 Nov 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Should TNCs make full disclosure on factory wages? [30 Oct 2011]
Unit 3 Micro: UK Executive Pay - All in it Together? [29 Oct 2011]
Unit 3 Micro: Drop Box and Freemium [18 Oct 2011]
Can the “invisible hand” solve Africa’s poverty? [13 Oct 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Unit Labour Costs and Inflation [12 Oct 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: UK Inflation Charts [12 Oct 2011]
Why Is Macroeconomics Such A Mess? [11 Oct 2011]
University Challenged [11 Oct 2011]
Unit 3 Micro: Monospony Power and Low Wages in Care Homes [3 Oct 2011]
Unit 3 Micro: Tube Drivers set to earn £50,000 a year [3 Oct 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Homework Assignment on Consumer Spending [3 Oct 2011]
NMW: Classical real-wage unemployment [3 Oct 2011]
Unit 1 Micro: Exercise on Market Supply [26 Sep 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: IMF Flags up Risks of Double Dip [20 Sep 2011]
Inflation in India [18 Sep 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Interest Rates and Income Inequality [16 Sep 2011]
Study Note - Macroeconomic policy objectives [16 Sep 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Economic Growth and Inequality [14 Sep 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Income and Wealth in the UK [12 Sep 2011]
50% tax rates - Chuck it George [7 Sep 2011]
John Kay on the future of Economics [26 Aug 2011]
Monetary Policy Roundtable [25 Jul 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Dangers of High Inflation [11 Jul 2011]
Unit 3 Micro: Oligopsony - Dairy Losses Drive Farmers from the Fields [10 Jul 2011]
AQA ECON4 Context [20 Jun 2011]
A2 Macro: Consumer Spending [30 May 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Supply-Side Policies [25 May 2011]
AQA Macro: Remember to revise inflation [25 May 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Demand Pull Inflation [24 May 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Deflation [24 May 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Cost Push Inflation [24 May 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Inflation [24 May 2011]
A2 Micro: The Importance of Profit [19 May 2011]
A2 Micro: High and Low Marginal Cost Products [19 May 2011]
A2 Micro: Ownership and Control in Modern Businesses [18 May 2011]
UK Economy Update: What Mervyn Said [11 May 2011]
Interest Rates Held at 0.5% once again [5 May 2011]
Macroeconomics revision - measuring Consumer Confidence [4 May 2011]
AS Micro: Rising Global Food Prices [2 May 2011]
Video Clips on the Chinese Economy [1 May 2011]
AS and A2 Macro Revision: Keynesian Economics [28 Apr 2011]
UK Economy at a Glance April 2011 [17 Apr 2011]
China set to become exporter of inflation [14 Apr 2011]
A2 Macro: Back to Roubini - a Year On! [11 Apr 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Real Disposable Income [11 Apr 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Monetary Policy Tightening [11 Apr 2011]
UK Minimum Wage rises by 2.5% in October 2011 [8 Apr 2011]
ECB breaks rank and raises interest rates [7 Apr 2011]

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