Good Job?

At last, some good news for the British economy? Unemployment fell in the UK in the final quarter of 2007, with both the Claimant Count and Labour Force Survey measures recording decreasing joblessness. Overall, the employment rate has risen to 74.7%.

The Claimant Count recorded a drop of 10,800 to 794,600 and the LFS a fall of 61,000 to 1.61 million. As expected, the distribution of employment and unemployment differs from region to region, and also within regions.

The data was greeted by Mervyn King as an opportunity for the media to present a more ‘balanced picture’ of the UK economy. However, the good news was tempered by talk of time lags as the recent events in credit, stock and housing markets are yet to show up on labour market data. Employment was also boosted by lower than expected earnings inflation, which may not be sustainable if, as Mervyn King has suggested, prices are likely to rise at a rate above the 3% ceiling used by the Monetary Policy Committee. With limited scope for further rate cuts, it may be inevitable that growth will slow both in the UK and in export markets, and so jobs will be lost faster than they can be created.

There are two possible escape routes:

1. An expansionary budget in March. Such a move may force the Treasury to finally and formally abandon its self-imposed fiscal rules.

2. A rewriting of the CPI target. With a time lag of somewhere between 12 and 24 months before a base rate decision fully affects prices, the Bank of England could attempt to justify a further base rate cut as being necessary in a low inflation expected in 2009.

Both these options carry a significant political risk (the perception that Labour is returning as the party of financial management, perhaps) and economic risk (a shattering of the expectation that inflation is low and will stay low). The last thing the present administration (and electorate) needs right now is a damaging wage-price spiral.

Unit 2 Macro: Cyclical and Structural Economic Issues Facing the UK [23 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Evaluation on Supply-Side Policies [21 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Migration and the UK Economy [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Positive and Negative Multiplier Effects [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Importance of Productivity [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Measuring Unemployment in the UK [20 May 2012]
Q&A: What do we need to know about output gaps? [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Output Gap [20 May 2012]
Revision notes on unemployment [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Bank Cuts UK growth Forecast for 2012 [16 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Economics of a Minimum Wage [12 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Poverty and Inequality and Market Failure [12 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision Notes on Supply-side Policies [10 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Model answer for revision data question [9 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Unemployment Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Economic Cycle Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Aggregate Demand Glossary [5 May 2012]
Macro Revision - Key Statistics on the UK Economy [4 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Using the Cost-Benefit Principle [30 Apr 2012]
Macro Revision: Putting Things in Context [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Spanish unemployed head to Argentina [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: The Euro Zone Crisis (Revision) [22 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Adecco and Monopsony Power [22 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Better news on jobs in the UK? [19 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Skills Shortages Hold Back Recovery [12 Apr 2012]
Superb article on unemployment [8 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: How the Economic Cycle affects Businesses [6 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Unemployment Scarring Effects [2 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Pain in Spain as Fiscal Austerity Bites [1 Apr 2012]
Intergenerational Equity - Fairness and the Slump [28 Mar 2012]
Blanchflower calls for more action to address youth jobless crisis [28 Mar 2012]
Life in the Slow Lane - UK Growth in 2011 Lags the Euro Area [28 Mar 2012]
Beyond the Bike - Monetary Policy in Africa [28 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Evaluating 3 Years of Quantitative Easing [27 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Seasonal and Structural Unemployment [15 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Policies to Drive Economic Recovery [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro - Labour Migration and the Economy [5 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: A Man Regains his Self Respect [25 Feb 2012]
Unit 1 Economics: Panorama - Poor America [17 Feb 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: King on the UK Economy [15 Feb 2012]
Economics Explained, by Evan [12 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: China’s Trade Engine is Spluttering [10 Feb 2012]
Stephanie Flanders explains Quantitative Easing in 60 seconds [9 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Growth and Development - Some Indicators [30 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Changing Economic Structure [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Money, Debt and the New World Order [22 Jan 2012]
France and Flexible Employment [22 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Living below the Breadline [19 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: UK Bond Yields Reach Record Lows [11 Jan 2012]
Hopes and Fears 2012 [10 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Quantitative Easing in the UK [8 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: A Jobs Boost for the US Economy [8 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision Quiz on Economics of Unemployment [5 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Video Resources on Unemployment [3 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The UK Housing Market in 2011 [26 Dec 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Brazil Overtakes UK in Economic Size [26 Dec 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: The Rise in Self Employment [17 Dec 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Long Term Unemployment - A Human Story [15 Dec 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Will a Youth Jobs Subsidy Work? [30 Nov 2011]
Where is the UK Economy? National Output [22 Nov 2011]
UK unemployment in November 2011 - a video overview [22 Nov 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: A Prezi on Unemployment Policies [16 Nov 2011]
AS Macro: The State of British Business [13 Nov 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: America’s hour-glass economy [9 Nov 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Video Clips on Unemployment [6 Nov 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: A New £50 comes into circulation [2 Nov 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Unemployment Chart Resource Download [29 Oct 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: A Widening Regional Divide in Life Expectancy [19 Oct 2011]
UK Unemployment in October 2011 [12 Oct 2011]
Why Is Macroeconomics Such A Mess? [11 Oct 2011]
NMW: Classical real-wage unemployment [3 Oct 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Greek Economy at Default’s Door [25 Sep 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: IMF Flags up Risks of Double Dip [20 Sep 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Interest Rates and Income Inequality [16 Sep 2011]
Study Note - Macroeconomic policy objectives [16 Sep 2011]
Study Note - What is Macroeconomics? [13 Sep 2011]
Public vs Private Sector - the world’s largest employers. [12 Sep 2011]
Monetary Policy Roundtable [25 Jul 2011]
“We need to make more stuff, using the same number of people…” [16 Jul 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Dangers of High Inflation [11 Jul 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Reducing Unemployment after a Recession [11 Jul 2011]
AQA ECON4 Context [20 Jun 2011]
Structural unemployment in the UK - insights for 2011 [13 Jun 2011]
A2 Macro: Consumer Spending [30 May 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Supply-Side Policies [25 May 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Demand Pull Inflation [24 May 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Deflation [24 May 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Trend Growth [23 May 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Economic Recovery [23 May 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Recession [23 May 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Spare Capacity [23 May 2011]
AQA A2 Economics - European Context [23 May 2011]
UK Economy Update: What Mervyn Said [11 May 2011]
Interest Rates Held at 0.5% once again [5 May 2011]
AS Macro: Updated presentation on monetary policy [4 May 2011]
Macroeconomics revision - measuring Consumer Confidence [4 May 2011]
EU Enlargement - Evaluating the Impact [30 Apr 2011]
AS and A2 Macro Revision: Keynesian Economics [28 Apr 2011]
Australia Booming Ahead [21 Apr 2011]
OCR F585 June 2011: A Brain Drain from Spain? [13 Apr 2011]

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