Global Trade Shrinks and Germany Suffers

“Of all bad-neighbourly conduct among trading nations, the worst is to go into a slump.” (Joan Robinson, 1966)

The WTO has published a deeply pessimistic short term forecast for global trade in 2009 predicting that global trade flows will shrink by 9% this year with developed countries such as Germany and Japan feeling the worst effects of the downturn in international trade and exchange. Poorer countries will see exports fall 2-3%.

According to the new forecast, real global output growth halved to less than 2% in 2008 is likely to fall by between 1% and 2% in 2009. This is the first decline in total world production since the 1930s.

The WTO report – available here – emphasizes the growing importance of global supply chains which increases the size of the trade multiplier effect. In a recession the multiplier effect works in reverse and hits those countries where exports are a large percentage of national output. ‘Production for many products is sourced around the world so there is a multiplier effect — as demand falls sharply overall, trade will fall even further.’

Much of the decline in global trade is due to a fall in demand - pure and simple. And the credit crunch has also made it harder for businesses to find trade credit - as the FT said in a column today ‘A lack of trade credit has also hurt, given that 90 per cent of trade involves some kind of credit, insurance or guarantee.’

Germany is a good example of an economy facing a severe recession because of the shrinkage in global trade. Germany’s merchandise exports in 2008, at $1.47 trillion, were slightly larger than China’s $1.43 trillion. This meant that Germany retained its position as the world’s leading merchandise exporter. But a new forecast from economists at Commerzbank suggests that German GDP may shrink by more than 7% this year

40% of German GDP is exported and it is heavily reliant on machine tools and engineering that is levearaged to global industrial cycle.  Germany’s traditional heavy focus on exporting manufactured goods is coming to be seen as an Achilles heel especially given the lack of an alternative source of domestic demand. The collapse in external demand, combined with no consumer demand and tighter credit conditions, means there is little incentive for firms to invest. Hence the domestic demand component of AD (C+I+G) is weak just at the time when overseas sales are falling off the cliff.

Unit 2 Macro: Cyclical and Structural Economic Issues Facing the UK [23 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Evaluation on Supply-Side Policies [21 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Current Account of the Balance of Payments [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: UK Trade in Services [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Positive and Negative Multiplier Effects [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Importance of Productivity [20 May 2012]
Q&A: What do we need to know about output gaps? [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Output Gap [20 May 2012]
Revision notes on unemployment [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Bank Cuts UK growth Forecast for 2012 [16 May 2012]
Grexit - Andrew Balls on Greece and the Euro [16 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision Notes on Supply-side Policies [10 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Model answer for revision data question [9 May 2012]
Made in China - but not quite so cheaply…... [7 May 2012]
F585: Recent Articles of Relevance [6 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Trade and Balance of Payments Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Unemployment Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Economic Cycle Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Aggregate Demand Glossary [5 May 2012]
Macro Revision - Key Statistics on the UK Economy [4 May 2012]
Macro Revision: Putting Things in Context [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Britain back in Recession [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: The Euro Zone Crisis (Revision) [22 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Globalisation and the Growth of Ports [10 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: How the Economic Cycle affects Businesses [6 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The UK Balance of Payments in 2011 [4 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Pain in Spain as Fiscal Austerity Bites [1 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Capital Investment [30 Mar 2012]
Global Economy- the 2012 BRICS Summit [28 Mar 2012]
Intergenerational Equity - Fairness and the Slump [28 Mar 2012]
Life in the Slow Lane - UK Growth in 2011 Lags the Euro Area [28 Mar 2012]
George Buckley at the Millfield Economics Society [28 Mar 2012]
Beyond the Bike - Monetary Policy in Africa [28 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: The Tax on Beer [16 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Inequality - The Rise of Fuel Poverty [15 Mar 2012]
Evidence of the dangers of protectionism [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Policies to Drive Economic Recovery [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: News Videos on the German Economy [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Sovereign Wealth Funds [4 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Might Oil Prices Bring another Recession? [4 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Dash for Gas in Mozambique [17 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Is the UK Economy Turning a Corner? [15 Feb 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: King on the UK Economy [15 Feb 2012]
Economics Explained, by Evan [12 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: China’s Trade Engine is Spluttering [10 Feb 2012]
Martin Wolf on Global Shocks [10 Feb 2012]
Competitiveness [8 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Growth and Development - Some Indicators [30 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Focus on India - Comparative Advantage [27 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Trade and Growth [27 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Focus on India - Economic Growth [24 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Exporting to the Booming Chinese Economy [23 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Money, Debt and the New World Order [22 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Russia Joins the WTO [22 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Frontier Markets - the New BRICS? [15 Jan 2012]
Beyond the Bike - The Importance of Remittances [15 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Time to Re-Boot the British Economy [14 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Economics of Fiscal Deficit Reduction [12 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Competitive Advantage in Trade (Some Videos) [12 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: UK Trade Patterns [11 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Factors Driving Business Investment [10 Jan 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Low Cost Airlines Beat the Recession [1 Jan 2012]
2011 in Review - The US Economy [27 Dec 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: The UK Housing Market in 2011 [26 Dec 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Brazil Overtakes UK in Economic Size [26 Dec 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: The Rise in Self Employment [17 Dec 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Does UK Manufacturing have a Future? [30 Nov 2011]
Where is the UK Economy? National Output [22 Nov 2011]
Beyond the Bike - The Value of Money [19 Nov 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Should the EU introduce a Tobin Tax? [14 Nov 2011]
AS Macro: The State of British Business [13 Nov 2011]
Latest world trade data [6 Nov 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Video Clips on Unemployment [6 Nov 2011]
Unit 3 Micro: Impulses to Change Management Models [5 Nov 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Should TNCs make full disclosure on factory wages? [30 Oct 2011]
Can the “invisible hand” solve Africa’s poverty? [13 Oct 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Can Exports Drive a Recovery? [13 Oct 2011]
UK Unemployment in October 2011 [12 Oct 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Unit Labour Costs and Inflation [12 Oct 2011]
Skidelsky in Madrid [12 Oct 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: UK suffers a weak recovery [12 Oct 2011]
Why Is Macroeconomics Such A Mess? [11 Oct 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: When China Met Africa [1 Oct 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Greek Economy at Default’s Door [25 Sep 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: IMF Flags up Risks of Double Dip [20 Sep 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Bangladesh and Comparative Advantage in Textiles [19 Sep 2011]
Study Note - Introduction to GDP [15 Sep 2011]
Study Note - The Circular Flow of Income [15 Sep 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Economic Growth and Inequality [14 Sep 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Income and Wealth in the UK [12 Sep 2011]
UK Macro: Risks of a Double Dip Recession [12 Sep 2011]
Mixing with the Nobel Economists [4 Sep 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Baltic Dry Index and Global Weakening [19 Aug 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: GDP per person since the credit crunch [19 Aug 2011]
A surprising example of trade between the USA, China, and Korea. [19 Jul 2011]
What might happen on August 2nd? [12 Jul 2011]
Unit 1 Micro: Economics of Volatile Corn Prices [12 Jul 2011]
Unit 3 Micro: Motorsport Valley and External Economies of Scale [12 Jul 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Dangers of High Inflation [11 Jul 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Reducing Unemployment after a Recession [11 Jul 2011]

ECONOMICS TEACHER RESOURCE NEWSLETTER

Join over 6,000 other Economics Teachers in the UK and around the world who receive the tutor2u regular Economics Resource Email Newsletter. Get special offers, first news of latest resources, teaching ideas, conferences and workshops + loads of great ideas for teaching economics from our blog authors.