Fallout from the recession

Fall out from the recession - according to the latest macroeconomic forecasts, in 2009

Real GDP is likely to contract by 4%
Consumer spending will fall by 3.5%
Business fixed investment will shrink by 9%
Exports of goods and services will decline by 10%
Imports will dip by 7.5%
Manufacturing output will be 15% lower at the end of 2009 than at the start
Company profits will drop by 25%
Average UK house prices will fall by another 20%
Unemployment will rise by more than 600,000 during the year
Productivity (output per worker) will contract by 1.4%
Real household disposable income will remain flat
The savings ratio will more than double from 2% to over 4%
CPI inflation will drop below the 2% target
RPI inflation will be negative for most of the year averaging -1.5%
Global GDP will shrink by 2%
World trade in goods and services will contract by 10%

Consider the links between these economic indicators.

The consensus forecast is that all of these indicators will show an improvement in 2010 compared to 2009 - as the world and UK economy attempts to emerge from the recession. But when does a recovery start? And what might bring it about?

Investment in Energy Infrastructure [23 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Cyclical and Structural Economic Issues Facing the UK [23 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Evaluation on Supply-Side Policies [21 May 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: Game Theory and Business Economics [21 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Current Account of the Balance of Payments [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: UK Trade in Services [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Migration and the UK Economy [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Positive and Negative Multiplier Effects [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Importance of Productivity [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Measuring Unemployment in the UK [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Measuring Inflation in the UK [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Real Interest Rates [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Human Development Index (HDI) [20 May 2012]
Q&A: What do we need to know about output gaps? [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Output Gap [20 May 2012]
Revision notes on unemployment [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Bank Cuts UK growth Forecast for 2012 [16 May 2012]
Grexit - Andrew Balls on Greece and the Euro [16 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Economics of a Minimum Wage [12 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision Notes on Supply-side Policies [10 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Model answer for revision data question [9 May 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: The Dawn of a Shareholder Spring? [8 May 2012]
Made in China - but not quite so cheaply…... [7 May 2012]
F585: Recent Articles of Relevance [6 May 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: TV Assembly Back in the USA [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Growth and Development Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Monetary Policy and Inflation Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Trade and Balance of Payments Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Unemployment Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Fiscal Policy Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Economic Cycle Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Aggregate Demand Glossary [5 May 2012]
Macro Revision - Key Statistics on the UK Economy [4 May 2012]
Robert Schiller - Finance and the Good Society [1 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Using the Cost-Benefit Principle [30 Apr 2012]
Macro Revision: Putting Things in Context [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Spanish unemployed head to Argentina [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Britain back in Recession [29 Apr 2012]
Tullow Oil and African Development [25 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: The Euro Zone Crisis (Revision) [22 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Heathow’s Capacity and Connectivity Crunch [22 Apr 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: The Third Industrial Revolution [20 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Better news on jobs in the UK? [19 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Managing the Global Commons - Limits to GDP [15 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Skills Shortages Hold Back Recovery [12 Apr 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: Quiz on Business Costs and Profits [11 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Globalisation and the Growth of Ports [10 Apr 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: Revision on Entry Barriers [10 Apr 2012]
Superb article on unemployment [8 Apr 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: Revision on Business Objectives and Pricing [8 Apr 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: Revision on Monopoly Price and Output [6 Apr 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: Monopoly and Economic Welfare [6 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Inflation and the Business Environment [6 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: How the Economic Cycle affects Businesses [6 Apr 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: Revision on Scale Economies and MES [5 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The UK Balance of Payments in 2011 [4 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate [3 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Productivity Improvements in China [3 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: The Collapsing Price of Carbon [3 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision on Producer Subsidies [2 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Real Economic Data [2 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Unemployment Scarring Effects [2 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Real Disposable Income [2 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Pain in Spain as Fiscal Austerity Bites [1 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision on Producer Cartels [31 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Gross National Happiness in Bhutan [31 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Index Numbers [31 Mar 2012]
Posen on slower growth in the UK compared to the USA [30 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Capital Investment [30 Mar 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: EU Imposes Further Price Cap on Mobile Phone Companies [29 Mar 2012]
Global Economy- the 2012 BRICS Summit [28 Mar 2012]
Intergenerational Equity - Fairness and the Slump [28 Mar 2012]
Blanchflower calls for more action to address youth jobless crisis [28 Mar 2012]
Life in the Slow Lane - UK Growth in 2011 Lags the Euro Area [28 Mar 2012]
Beyond the Bike - Gold Digging in Sudan [28 Mar 2012]
George Buckley at the Millfield Economics Society [28 Mar 2012]
Beyond the Bike - Monetary Policy in Africa [28 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Evaluating 3 Years of Quantitative Easing [27 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: The Tax on Beer [16 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Inequality - The Rise of Fuel Poverty [15 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Seasonal and Structural Unemployment [15 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Video Resources on the Euro Crisis [10 Mar 2012]
Evidence of the dangers of protectionism [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Policies to Drive Economic Recovery [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on UK Manufacturing [6 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro - Labour Migration and the Economy [5 Mar 2012]
Adapt or Die - Lord Bilimoria and the Cobra Story [4 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Sovereign Wealth Funds [4 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Breaking Down the Cost of Gas [4 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Might Oil Prices Bring another Recession? [4 Mar 2012]
Economies hooked on central bank stimulants? [4 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Highest and Lowest Paid Jobs in the UK [26 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: A Man Regains his Self Respect [25 Feb 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: Volkswagen targets growth markets [25 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Targeted Tax Cuts to help the Economy [22 Feb 2012]
Unit 1 Economics: Panorama - Poor America [17 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Dash for Gas in Mozambique [17 Feb 2012]
A return to Glass-Steagall to prevent another crash? A lesson from economic history. [17 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Is the UK Economy Turning a Corner? [15 Feb 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: King on the UK Economy [15 Feb 2012]

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