Europe Revision: Problems facing Eastern European Countries

Revision notes on some of the economic challenges facing new member states of the EU

Economic difficulties facing eastern European members of the EU

1. Deep recession –
a. First major downturn since the post-communist chaos of the early 1990s
b. The worst-affected countries are dependent on the Euro Area for investment and exports   e.g. in 2007 Czech Republic sent 52.6% of X to the EU-27, 50.4% in Hungary and 53.5% in Poland.
c. Good example is the collapse in production in the European car industry
2. Rising unemployment added to by the return of migrants
3. Huge government debts - fuelled by the recession but also by longer term factors such as an ageing population
4. Asset price deflation after property bubbles burst e.g. Latvia, Estonia
5. Many of their currencies are depreciating - making it harder to service debt issued in Euros - Some currencies have come under speculative attack
6. Some countries have currencies pegged to the Euro – which makes them highly uncompetitive and is costing many jobs
7. Banking system suffering from high level of bad debts - many western Banks are heavily exposed – is this Europe’s own sub-prime crisis?
8. Loss of investor confidence in central and eastern Europe – some reversal of FDI flows – which have been a major source of growth over recent years

Implications for the UK economy
1. In the short term – a fall in exports – negative multiplier & accelerator effects
2. Some UK firms will cut back on their FDI into central and Eastern Europe
3. Recession may limit extent to which eastern European migrants head back home

Evaluation points
1. Long term process of convergence with Western Europe was never going to be smooth – the key is how the new EU members respond to the challenge especially on the supply-side of their economies
2. Some new EU members suffered from unsustainable booms (e.g. the Baltic States) but the same happened in Spain and Ireland and they have much higher levels of private sector debt
3. Several countries including Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia are out-performing the UK and others during the international crisis
4. Eastern European region’s medium term key competitive advantages remain – especially low-cost high-skill labour – attractive to manufacturing businesses
5. The 2009 crisis may persuade CEEC countries to reduce their dependence on foreign direct investments, foreign borrowing and additional funds from Brussels and build an economic growth model on different grounds

Unit 2 Macro: Cyclical and Structural Economic Issues Facing the UK [23 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Evaluation on Supply-Side Policies [21 May 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: Game Theory and Business Economics [21 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Current Account of the Balance of Payments [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Migration and the UK Economy [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Positive and Negative Multiplier Effects [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Importance of Productivity [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Measuring Unemployment in the UK [20 May 2012]
Q&A: What do we need to know about output gaps? [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Output Gap [20 May 2012]
Revision notes on unemployment [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Bank Cuts UK growth Forecast for 2012 [16 May 2012]
Grexit - Andrew Balls on Greece and the Euro [16 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision on Rice Prices [13 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Price Elasticity of Supply [13 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Economics of Cocoa Prices [12 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Economics of a Minimum Wage [12 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Poverty and Inequality and Market Failure [12 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision Notes on Supply-side Policies [10 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Model answer for revision data question [9 May 2012]
Made in China - but not quite so cheaply…... [7 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: 10 Key Revision Topics for EdExcel [7 May 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: TV Assembly Back in the USA [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Growth and Development Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Monetary Policy and Inflation Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Trade and Balance of Payments Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Unemployment Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Economic Cycle Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Aggregate Demand Glossary [5 May 2012]
Macro Revision - Key Statistics on the UK Economy [4 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Using the Cost-Benefit Principle [30 Apr 2012]
Macro Revision: Putting Things in Context [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: End of the Road for the Lada [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: The Euro Zone Crisis (Revision) [22 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Adecco and Monopsony Power [22 Apr 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: The Third Industrial Revolution [20 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Better news on jobs in the UK? [19 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Skills Shortages Hold Back Recovery [12 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Globalisation and the Growth of Ports [10 Apr 2012]
Superb article on unemployment [8 Apr 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: Revision on Scale Economies and MES [5 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision on Price Elasticity of Supply [5 Apr 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: Revision on the Law of Diminishing Returns [4 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The UK Balance of Payments in 2011 [4 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate [3 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Productivity Improvements in China [3 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision on Producer Subsidies [2 Apr 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: Revision on Scale Economies, Technology and Prices [1 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Pain in Spain as Fiscal Austerity Bites [1 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Index Numbers [31 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Brazilian coffee buffer stock hit by falling prices [29 Mar 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: EU Imposes Further Price Cap on Mobile Phone Companies [29 Mar 2012]
Intergenerational Equity - Fairness and the Slump [28 Mar 2012]
Blanchflower calls for more action to address youth jobless crisis [28 Mar 2012]
Life in the Slow Lane - UK Growth in 2011 Lags the Euro Area [28 Mar 2012]
George Buckley at the Millfield Economics Society [28 Mar 2012]
Beyond the Bike - Monetary Policy in Africa [28 Mar 2012]
Price of Stamp increases to 60p [27 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Seasonal and Structural Unemployment [15 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Video Resources on the Euro Crisis [10 Mar 2012]
Evidence of the dangers of protectionism [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Enlarging the EU [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Policies to Drive Economic Recovery [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: News Videos on the German Economy [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on UK Manufacturing [6 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro - Labour Migration and the Economy [5 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Might Oil Prices Bring another Recession? [4 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Highest and Lowest Paid Jobs in the UK [26 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Targeted Tax Cuts to help the Economy [22 Feb 2012]
The Economics of Climate Change - Stern 5 Years On [21 Feb 2012]
Pinterest: Board on Developments in the EU Economy [19 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Dash for Gas in Mozambique [17 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Is the UK Economy Turning a Corner? [15 Feb 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: King on the UK Economy [15 Feb 2012]
Economics Explained, by Evan [12 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: China’s Trade Engine is Spluttering [10 Feb 2012]
Martin Wolf on Global Shocks [10 Feb 2012]
Competitiveness [8 Feb 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Winning the War on Deforestation [5 Feb 2012]
Trucks are the new way of measuring debt [1 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Growth and Development - Some Indicators [30 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Focus on India - Comparative Advantage [27 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Trade and Growth [27 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Changing Economic Structure [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Focus on India - World’s Cheapest Computer [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Can China Stay Competitive [25 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Focus on India - Economic Growth [24 Jan 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: 3D Printing and a Manufacturing Revolution [23 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Exporting to the Booming Chinese Economy [23 Jan 2012]
France and Flexible Employment [22 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Russia Joins the WTO [22 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Living below the Breadline [19 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Videos on Productivity [17 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: France loses her AAA credit rating [15 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Time to Re-Boot the British Economy [14 Jan 2012]
China’s newest 5 year plan - and how it could change the world! [12 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Competitive Advantage in Trade (Some Videos) [12 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: UK Trade Patterns [11 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Does Manufacturing Matter? [10 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Factors Driving Business Investment [10 Jan 2012]

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