Economics Explained, by Evan

Here is a great little article on the Today programme’s website by Evan Davis, looking at the relative merits of Plan A - Austerity - vs Plan B - government spending. He takes the arguments of Jonathan Portes, director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, who believes that what’s required at the moment is a short term, temporary fiscal stimulus to boost output and jobs and of Roger Bootle, managing director of Capital Economics, who thinks it would be dangerous for the government to divert from its Plan A of spending cuts.

What we find is that they both agree that cutting won’t create growth. When looking at spending, one of the problems which is specific to the UK economy is that extra spending is likely to become a greater leakage from the circular flow as it will be spend in imports. So the multiplier effect from that spending is diminished. And again, they both agree on that.

(Incidentally, they also both suggest that, as the US is less dependent on imports than the UK, therefore the multiplier effect of government spending in the US is greater as more of the injection will be retained in the economy. Interesting to consider this against this report that the US trade deficit has just worsened due to higher imports….)

Where they appear to differ most is in considering the importance of the reaction of The Markets. For Roger Bootle,this is the major cause of risk and so retaining credibility by sticking to Plan A through thick and thin is the only option. Jonathan Portes agrees that this is an issue, but believes that the extra unemployment caused by the austerity is worse for the economy both in the short term and the long term..

So the conclusion is that it depends on what kind of risk you would prefer to take. Either way, its not very pleasant.

Unit 2 Macro: Cyclical and Structural Economic Issues Facing the UK [23 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Evaluation on Supply-Side Policies [21 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Current Account of the Balance of Payments [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: UK Trade in Services [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Migration and the UK Economy [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Positive and Negative Multiplier Effects [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Importance of Productivity [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Measuring Unemployment in the UK [20 May 2012]
Q&A: What do we need to know about output gaps? [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Output Gap [20 May 2012]
Revision notes on unemployment [20 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Economics of a Minimum Wage [12 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Poverty and Inequality and Market Failure [12 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision Notes on Supply-side Policies [10 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Model answer for revision data question [9 May 2012]
F585: Recent Articles of Relevance [6 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Trade and Balance of Payments Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Unemployment Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Economic Cycle Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Aggregate Demand Glossary [5 May 2012]
Macro Revision - Key Statistics on the UK Economy [4 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Using the Cost-Benefit Principle [30 Apr 2012]
Macro Revision: Putting Things in Context [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Spanish unemployed head to Argentina [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: The Euro Zone Crisis (Revision) [22 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Adecco and Monopsony Power [22 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Better news on jobs in the UK? [19 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Skills Shortages Hold Back Recovery [12 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Globalisation and the Growth of Ports [10 Apr 2012]
Superb article on unemployment [8 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: How the Economic Cycle affects Businesses [6 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The UK Balance of Payments in 2011 [4 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Unemployment Scarring Effects [2 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Pain in Spain as Fiscal Austerity Bites [1 Apr 2012]
Global Economy- the 2012 BRICS Summit [28 Mar 2012]
Intergenerational Equity - Fairness and the Slump [28 Mar 2012]
Blanchflower calls for more action to address youth jobless crisis [28 Mar 2012]
Life in the Slow Lane - UK Growth in 2011 Lags the Euro Area [28 Mar 2012]
Beyond the Bike - Monetary Policy in Africa [28 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Seasonal and Structural Unemployment [15 Mar 2012]
Evidence of the dangers of protectionism [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Policies to Drive Economic Recovery [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro - Labour Migration and the Economy [5 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Sovereign Wealth Funds [4 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Might Oil Prices Bring another Recession? [4 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: A Man Regains his Self Respect [25 Feb 2012]
Unit 1 Economics: Panorama - Poor America [17 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Dash for Gas in Mozambique [17 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: China’s Trade Engine is Spluttering [10 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Growth and Development - Some Indicators [30 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Focus on India - Comparative Advantage [27 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Trade and Growth [27 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Changing Economic Structure [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Focus on India - Economic Growth [24 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Exporting to the Booming Chinese Economy [23 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Money, Debt and the New World Order [22 Jan 2012]
France and Flexible Employment [22 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Russia Joins the WTO [22 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Living below the Breadline [19 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Frontier Markets - the New BRICS? [15 Jan 2012]
Beyond the Bike - The Importance of Remittances [15 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Competitive Advantage in Trade (Some Videos) [12 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: UK Trade Patterns [11 Jan 2012]
Hopes and Fears 2012 [10 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: A Jobs Boost for the US Economy [8 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision Quiz on Economics of Unemployment [5 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Video Resources on Unemployment [3 Jan 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Low Cost Airlines Beat the Recession [1 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The UK Housing Market in 2011 [26 Dec 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Brazil Overtakes UK in Economic Size [26 Dec 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: The Rise in Self Employment [17 Dec 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Long Term Unemployment - A Human Story [15 Dec 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Will a Youth Jobs Subsidy Work? [30 Nov 2011]
Where is the UK Economy? National Output [22 Nov 2011]
UK unemployment in November 2011 - a video overview [22 Nov 2011]
Beyond the Bike - The Value of Money [19 Nov 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: A Prezi on Unemployment Policies [16 Nov 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Should the EU introduce a Tobin Tax? [14 Nov 2011]
AS Macro: The State of British Business [13 Nov 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: America’s hour-glass economy [9 Nov 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Video Clips on Unemployment [6 Nov 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Should TNCs make full disclosure on factory wages? [30 Oct 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Unemployment Chart Resource Download [29 Oct 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: A Widening Regional Divide in Life Expectancy [19 Oct 2011]
Can the “invisible hand” solve Africa’s poverty? [13 Oct 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Can Exports Drive a Recovery? [13 Oct 2011]
UK Unemployment in October 2011 [12 Oct 2011]
Skidelsky in Madrid [12 Oct 2011]
Why Is Macroeconomics Such A Mess? [11 Oct 2011]
NMW: Classical real-wage unemployment [3 Oct 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: When China Met Africa [1 Oct 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Greek Economy at Default’s Door [25 Sep 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: IMF Flags up Risks of Double Dip [20 Sep 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Bangladesh and Comparative Advantage in Textiles [19 Sep 2011]
Study Note - Macroeconomic policy objectives [16 Sep 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Economic Growth and Inequality [14 Sep 2011]
Study Note - What is Macroeconomics? [13 Sep 2011]
Public vs Private Sector - the world’s largest employers. [12 Sep 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Baltic Dry Index and Global Weakening [19 Aug 2011]
A surprising example of trade between the USA, China, and Korea. [19 Jul 2011]

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