Confidence slumps - a tipping point?

Consumer confidence in the UK has slumped to its lowest level in 18 years. The latest consumer confidence barometer from GfK/NOP shows overall confidence in prospects for the economy dropped five points to -34 in June, only one point above the record low of -35 reported in March 1990. Plenty of reports on this today - here is the link to the Guardian’s coverage and also to the Times.

We should remember the usual caveats about this being a survey subject to sample error and that people’s expectations of where the economy is heading does not always correlate with their own experiences. The hard numbers on jobs, real take-home pay, housing repossessions and mortgage costs will have a heavier bearing on spending decisions in the near term. But these confidence numbers are truly dire and seem to suggest to me that 2009 will be a very difficult year for the UK economy.

Unit 2 Macro: Cyclical and Structural Economic Issues Facing the UK [23 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Positive and Negative Multiplier Effects [20 May 2012]
Revision notes on unemployment [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision Notes on Supply-side Policies [10 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Monetary Policy and Inflation Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Trade and Balance of Payments Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Economic Cycle Glossary [5 May 2012]
Macro Revision: Putting Things in Context [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Capital Investment [30 Mar 2012]
George Buckley at the Millfield Economics Society [28 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Evaluating 3 Years of Quantitative Easing [27 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Policies to Drive Economic Recovery [9 Mar 2012]
Economies hooked on central bank stimulants? [4 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: King on the UK Economy [15 Feb 2012]
Martin Wolf on Global Shocks [10 Feb 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Money, Debt and the New World Order [22 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: UK Bond Yields Reach Record Lows [11 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Factors Driving Business Investment [10 Jan 2012]
Hopes and Fears 2012 [10 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The UK Housing Market in 2011 [26 Dec 2011]
Where is the UK Economy? National Output [22 Nov 2011]
AS Macro: The State of British Business [13 Nov 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: UK suffers a weak recovery [12 Oct 2011]
Why Is Macroeconomics Such A Mess? [11 Oct 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Homework Assignment on Consumer Spending [3 Oct 2011]
Unit 1 Micro: Exercise on Market Supply [26 Sep 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Greek Economy at Default’s Door [25 Sep 2011]
UK Macro: Risks of a Double Dip Recession [12 Sep 2011]
John Kay on the future of Economics [26 Aug 2011]
Monetary Policy Roundtable [25 Jul 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Dangers of High Inflation [11 Jul 2011]
Unit 1 Micro: High price of petrol drains demand [9 Jul 2011]
A2 Macro: Consumer Spending [30 May 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Deflation [24 May 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Cost Push Inflation [24 May 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Economic Recovery [23 May 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Recession [23 May 2011]
A2 Micro: The Importance of Profit [19 May 2011]
UK Economy Update: What Mervyn Said [11 May 2011]
AS Micro: What´s really behind the oil price rise? [10 May 2011]
Interest Rates Held at 0.5% once again [5 May 2011]
Macroeconomics revision - measuring Consumer Confidence [4 May 2011]
AS and A2 Macro Revision: Keynesian Economics [28 Apr 2011]
Rise in investment could kick start recovery [18 Apr 2011]
A2 Macro: Back to Roubini - a Year On! [11 Apr 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Real Disposable Income [11 Apr 2011]
AS Micro: Prices for New and Second Hand Cars [9 Apr 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Double-Dip Recession [8 Apr 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Jobless Recovery [8 Apr 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Fiscal Austerity [6 Apr 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Expansionary Monetary Policy [4 Apr 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Bubble [4 Apr 2011]
Focus on Spain [16 Mar 2011]
Timetric: UK Consumption as a Share of GDP [12 Mar 2011]
AS Macro Revision: Investment Spending [12 Mar 2011]
EU Economics: Germany leads Euro Zone revival [25 Feb 2011]
Never Mind Plan B - Plan V needed for the UK Economy! [17 Feb 2011]
David Smith on Shifting Sands in the Global Economy [8 Feb 2011]
Martin Weale argues for higher interest rates now! [1 Feb 2011]
Choppy Times - An Economic Cycle Update and Resource Download [25 Jan 2011]
Economics Q&A: Will the rise in VAT harm the UK’s economic performance? [17 Jan 2011]
Economics Q&A: What economic factors affect the demand for new cars? [9 Jan 2011]
A seasonal introduction to Consumption, Government Spending and Aggregate Demand. [22 Dec 2010]
EU Economy: Focus on Inflation [16 Dec 2010]
Test Cricket – better to make your debut at home [2 Dec 2010]
Video resources on consumption and saving [7 Oct 2010]
IMF signs off on UK’s fiscal plans [27 Sep 2010]
Fears rise for a double dip over the pond [25 Aug 2010]
King on the economy [11 Aug 2010]
Reasons to fear a jobless recovery [11 Aug 2010]
Consumer sentiment weakens as double dip looms [2 Aug 2010]
Where next for the UK economy? [23 Jul 2010]
Unit 2 Macro: How can supply-side policies help in a recession? [6 Jun 2010]
Paul Krugman at the LSE [2 Jun 2010]
AS Macro Revision: Policies to Control Inflation [31 May 2010]
AS Macro Revision: Cost Push Inflation [31 May 2010]
AS Macro Revision: Household Saving [30 May 2010]
AS Macro Revision: The Importance of Consumption [30 May 2010]
AS Macro: Sterling and the UK Economy [29 May 2010]
A2 Economics Revision - Price Expectations and Money Illusion [8 May 2010]
The Financial Crisis and Beyond [6 May 2010]
AS Economics Revision - Managing the Economy [2 May 2010]
Issues and Prospects for the UK Economy in 2010 [25 Apr 2010]
Animal Spirits [25 Apr 2010]
RES Essay Competition: Preventing Housing Bubbles [12 Apr 2010]
Kaletsky on the Phillips Curve [7 Apr 2010]
UK Economy Revision: Inflation in the last few years [1 Apr 2010]
Fed pledges to keep policy rates “exceptionally low” [16 Mar 2010]
Evolution of an Economic Recovery [13 Feb 2010]
Chinese growth in words and pictures [21 Jan 2010]
4 Conditions needed for recovery [14 Jan 2010]
Cautious consumers fear tax rises [6 Jan 2010]
How Markets Fail - the logic of economic calamities [26 Dec 2009]
Rising savings ratio does not herald a return of thrift [23 Dec 2009]
Capital flight [17 Dec 2009]
Is monetary policy becoming less effective? [16 Dec 2009]
Inflation targets [15 Dec 2009]
Macroeconomic stability [14 Dec 2009]
Law and Morality in Economic Life [26 Nov 2009]
The power of words… [12 Nov 2009]

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