Causes of a double-dip recession

To drive the economy out of recession requires extra demand but where is this demand coming from? Cuts in interest rates and a big fiscal stimulus in many countries (notably China and the United States) has helped to cushion the scale of the slump but sometimes despite tentative signs of green shoots, an economy can go into the second stage of a downturn, this is known as a double-dip recession. This can happen if the initial ‘kick’ of the fiscal and monetary stimulus starts to wear off.

This Newsnight video report by Paul Mason (recently returned from a lengthy period analysing the Chinese economy) features Martin Weale, Director of the NIESR and my old tutor at Cambridge who argues that Britain will have to get used to being 3 or 4 per cent poorer and expect a deterioration in public services with government spending cuts inevitable in the coming years.

There are signs that borrowing costs are starting to rise, particularly mortgage costs and loan and overdraft charges for businesses. This may undermine confidence and engender any green shoots.

Unit 2 Macro: Cyclical and Structural Economic Issues Facing the UK [23 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Positive and Negative Multiplier Effects [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Importance of Productivity [20 May 2012]
Q&A: What do we need to know about output gaps? [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Output Gap [20 May 2012]
Revision notes on unemployment [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Bank Cuts UK growth Forecast for 2012 [16 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision Presentation on Elasticity of Supply [16 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision Presentation on Elasticity of Demand [16 May 2012]
Grexit - Andrew Balls on Greece and the Euro [16 May 2012]
Jonathan Portes to speak at the Economics Teacher National Conference 2012 [15 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Price Elasticity of Supply [13 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Income Elasticity of Demand [13 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Price Elasticity of Demand [13 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision Notes on Supply-side Policies [10 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Model answer for revision data question [9 May 2012]
Made in China - but not quite so cheaply…... [7 May 2012]
F585: Recent Articles of Relevance [6 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Growth and Development Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Monetary Policy and Inflation Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Trade and Balance of Payments Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Unemployment Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Economic Cycle Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Aggregate Demand Glossary [5 May 2012]
Macro Revision - Key Statistics on the UK Economy [4 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Using the Cost-Benefit Principle [30 Apr 2012]
Macro Revision: Putting Things in Context [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Britain back in Recession [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: The Euro Zone Crisis (Revision) [22 Apr 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: The Third Industrial Revolution [20 Apr 2012]
Ukraine Hotel ‘Bandits’? [12 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Skills Shortages Hold Back Recovery [12 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Globalisation and the Growth of Ports [10 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: How the Economic Cycle affects Businesses [6 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision on Price Elasticity of Supply [5 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision on Elasticity of Demand (for Rice) [3 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Productivity Improvements in China [3 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Pain in Spain as Fiscal Austerity Bites [1 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision on Maximum Rents in Housing [1 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision on Producer Cartels [31 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Capital Investment [30 Mar 2012]
Global Economy- the 2012 BRICS Summit [28 Mar 2012]
Intergenerational Equity - Fairness and the Slump [28 Mar 2012]
Life in the Slow Lane - UK Growth in 2011 Lags the Euro Area [28 Mar 2012]
George Buckley at the Millfield Economics Society [28 Mar 2012]
OCR A2 Economics Unit F585 The Global Economy June 2012 [27 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Evaluating 3 Years of Quantitative Easing [27 Mar 2012]
Solar Panels and Tariffs [21 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: The Tax on Beer [16 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Inequality - The Rise of Fuel Poverty [15 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Government launches New Buy Loan Guarantee Scheme [12 Mar 2012]
Evidence of the dangers of protectionism [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Policies to Drive Economic Recovery [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Might Oil Prices Bring another Recession? [4 Mar 2012]
Economies hooked on central bank stimulants? [4 Mar 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: Volkswagen targets growth markets [25 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Rosling on China and the UK Converging [24 Feb 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: King on the UK Economy [15 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: China’s Trade Engine is Spluttering [10 Feb 2012]
Martin Wolf on Global Shocks [10 Feb 2012]
Russia’s monopoly power over gas supplies [5 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Trade and Growth [27 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Inflation [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Carbon Emissions and Growth [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Per Capita Incomes [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Changing Economic Structure [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Can China Stay Competitive [25 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Population Shift in China [23 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Exporting to the Booming Chinese Economy [23 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Money, Debt and the New World Order [22 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Russia Joins the WTO [22 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Videos on Productivity [17 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Look Upwards to Find the next Downturn [15 Jan 2012]
China’s newest 5 year plan - and how it could change the world! [12 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Economics of Fiscal Deficit Reduction [12 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: UK Bond Yields Reach Record Lows [11 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Factors Driving Business Investment [10 Jan 2012]
Hopes and Fears 2012 [10 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision Quiz on the Economic Cycle [4 Jan 2012]
2011 in Review - The US Economy [27 Dec 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: The UK Housing Market in 2011 [26 Dec 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Brazil Overtakes UK in Economic Size [26 Dec 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: The Rise in Self Employment [17 Dec 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Does UK Manufacturing have a Future? [30 Nov 2011]
Unit 3 Micro: Brand Loyalty in Mobile Phones [27 Nov 2011]
Where is the UK Economy? National Output [22 Nov 2011]
Jim O’Neill - The Growth Map: Economic Opportunity in the BRICs and Beyond [22 Nov 2011]
AS Macro: The State of British Business [13 Nov 2011]
Latest world trade data [6 Nov 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Video Clips on Unemployment [6 Nov 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: China and India - Notes from Martin Wolf [6 Nov 2011]
Unit 3 Micro: Impulses to Change Management Models [5 Nov 2011]
Unit 3 Micro: Time of Use Pricing for Energy [2 Nov 2011]
Unit 3 Micro: Economies of Scale and the Kinect [31 Oct 2011]
Unit 1 Micro: Is the Sun Dipping on Solar Subsidies? [27 Oct 2011]
Unit 1 Micro: University fees and elasticity of demand [24 Oct 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Economic Importance of Investment [19 Oct 2011]
Can the “invisible hand” solve Africa’s poverty? [13 Oct 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Can Exports Drive a Recovery? [13 Oct 2011]
UK Unemployment in October 2011 [12 Oct 2011]

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