Buyers desert the property market - with good reason

The latest house price figures from the Nationwide Building Society are as dire as expected with prices falling at an annual rate of just under 15 per cent. Average prices are now almost £30,000 less than at the same point in 2007.

More significantly, property values are currently declining at a pace of around 5 per cent every three months.  This is much steeper than in the last housing recession in the early 1990s.

As I have written before, I am currently out of the housing market and I greet each month’s decline in average prices with unbridled glee.

Despite the recent declines, property remains expensive and it would be a fool who entered the market now believing that prices will rebound in the near term.

Look at the chart below which tracks the base mortgage rate from the Nationwide and the standard variable rate from HBoS.

Neither has passed through any of the recent reduction in official policy interest rates and it will be interesting to see if they do so when the MPC cuts interest rates again next week – probably by 0.5 per cent and possibly by more.

Falling prices
Tighter credit
An economy heading into recession

It will take more than the odd base rate reduction to turn this market around. Gary Duncan is excellent in this short video clip available on the Times website.

Unit 2 Macro: Cyclical and Structural Economic Issues Facing the UK [23 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Migration and the UK Economy [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Measuring Inflation in the UK [20 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Poverty and Inequality and Market Failure [12 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision Blogs on Markets and Intervention [10 May 2012]
Macro Revision: Putting Things in Context [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision on Maximum Rents in Housing [1 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Government launches New Buy Loan Guarantee Scheme [12 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Policies to Drive Economic Recovery [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The UK Housing Market in 2011 [26 Dec 2011]
Unit 1 Micro: Empty Housing and Economic Efficiency [15 Dec 2011]
Behavioural Economics: Herd Behaviour [28 Nov 2011]
UK Macro: Risks of a Double Dip Recession [12 Sep 2011]
Starter Video: The Slums of Manilla [11 Sep 2011]
Unit 1 Micro: FirstBuy, Affordability and Effective Demand in Property [10 Jul 2011]
Chinese inward investment in the London property market [12 Jun 2011]
A2 Macro: Consumer Spending [30 May 2011]
AS Macro: Extended House Price Deflation? [5 May 2011]
A2 Micro: Innovation in Markets [4 May 2011]
AS Micro: Importance of Elasticity of Supply [23 Apr 2011]
ECB breaks rank and raises interest rates [7 Apr 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Bubble [4 Apr 2011]
Timetric: Mortgage Lending and Mortgage Rates [14 Mar 2011]
EU Economics: Germany leads Euro Zone revival [25 Feb 2011]
Combining monetary and fiscal policy to curb inflation in China [16 Feb 2011]
Challenges facing the London Economy [12 Feb 2011]
David Smith on Shifting Sands in the Global Economy [8 Feb 2011]
Economics Q&A: Will the rise in VAT harm the UK’s economic performance? [17 Jan 2011]
EU Economics: EU Economy in Charts Jan 2011 [29 Dec 2010]
Extend and Enrich with EconoMax [29 Oct 2010]
Beware the return of the Gazunderer [16 Oct 2010]
Mortgage equity withdrawal [1 Oct 2010]
Housing market and negative equity [31 Aug 2010]
Reasons to fear a jobless recovery [11 Aug 2010]
Consumer sentiment weakens as double dip looms [2 Aug 2010]
China’s housing market - fantastic interactive resource [7 Jun 2010]
Unit 2 Macro: How can supply-side policies help in a recession? [6 Jun 2010]
Housing and the British Economy [5 Jun 2010]
AS Macro Revision: Household Saving [30 May 2010]
AS Macro Revision: Consumer Borrowing [30 May 2010]
AS Macro Revision: The Importance of Consumption [30 May 2010]
Euro Land and Optimal Currency Areas - A Valentine’s Day Massacre [29 May 2010]
Warnings of hysteresis for the EU economy [29 May 2010]
Two examples of government failure [20 May 2010]
UK inflation hits 17-month high [18 May 2010]
The Financial Crisis and Beyond [6 May 2010]
Issues and Prospects for the UK Economy in 2010 [25 Apr 2010]
RES Essay Competition: Preventing Housing Bubbles [12 Apr 2010]
A widening North-South divide [2 Apr 2010]
Paris punishes the purse strings [12 Mar 2010]
50-year decline in housing affordability [20 Jan 2010]
Assorted Links (30 Dec 2009) [29 Dec 2009]
Is monetary policy becoming less effective? [16 Dec 2009]
New figures show extent of wealth inequality in the UK [11 Dec 2009]
Reasons to expect a Nike Swoosh recovery [13 Nov 2009]
Gloomy summary [13 Oct 2009]
Pain in Spain - on the brink of depression [26 Sep 2009]
Debt repayment - a virtue or a curse? [17 Sep 2009]
The Wealth Effect [12 Sep 2009]
The Year that Shook the World [7 Sep 2009]
What happens when the hose pipe is turned off? [23 Aug 2009]
Tentative signs of a pulse in the housing market [30 Jul 2009]
Economics Snapshot - EU Migrants in the UK Labour Market [26 Jul 2009]
Housing the global economic crisis [23 Jul 2009]
Causes of a double-dip recession [19 Jul 2009]
Trying to turn the tide of deforestation [10 Jul 2009]
Ireland in the grip of deflation [10 Jul 2009]
Revision - Cost of Living [26 May 2009]
Revision - External Shocks [24 May 2009]
BBC Video: Ireland in Recession [24 May 2009]
Revision: Deflation in Residential and Commercial Property [14 May 2009]
Policy Failure - Rising Inequality [10 May 2009]
Revision: The Liquidity Trap [10 May 2009]
Revision: Consumer Borrowing [4 May 2009]
After the storm [3 May 2009]
Sunlight is a great disinfectant [30 Apr 2009]
(Very) Tentative Green Shoots [13 Apr 2009]
Wimbledon serves up £55m in debenture sales [4 Apr 2009]
Thrifty days are here again [31 Mar 2009]
Revision presentation - UK Housing Market 2009 [25 Mar 2009]
Bubble Behaviour [22 Mar 2009]
Macroeconomics Seminar with David Miles [27 Feb 2009]
Q&A: Why when base rates change does it cause other interest rates to also change? [23 Feb 2009]
Spanish Economy - After the Fiesta [20 Feb 2009]
Bootle on Deflation [25 Jan 2009]
Read the small print! [12 Jan 2009]
Interest rates are no longer the key story [8 Jan 2009]
Homeowners step away from equity loans [1 Jan 2009]
Barclays Boss says housing downturn is only half done [16 Dec 2008]
Mortgages - A Return to Rationing [3 Dec 2008]
Budgeting for expansion [27 Oct 2008]
The Credit Crunch in Charts [23 Oct 2008]
Negative equity - why is it a problem? [20 Oct 2008]
B2BB - Back to Banking Basics [10 Oct 2008]
The Rate Cut - In Charts [8 Oct 2008]
RBS and HSBC - one for Peston? [5 Oct 2008]
Savings and Hot Money - Shelters from the Storm [5 Oct 2008]
Hamish McRae on the return of credit rationing [1 Oct 2008]
Financial collapse and the principal agent problem [29 Sep 2008]
Mortgage Market - Closed for Business [29 Sep 2008]

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