Between a rock and a hard place

The Monetary Policy Committee split three ways at the July meeting - the result of course being that rates were left on hold at 5% for a further month. The minutes of the meeting make for fascinating reading providing as they do a generous overview of the most recent macroeconomic developments both here and overseas. I was struck by the emphasis given in most of the rate setting variables to the increasing flow of evidence from survey data - be it reports from the Bank’s own regional agents on conditions on the ground in the real economy, to survey information from the property market, employers’ organisations and data on business and consumer confidence and expectations.

The Bank is truly at the moment between a rock and a hard place - the case for a rate hike was sketched as follows:

“Although it could do little to alter the path of inflation in the near term, the Committee could, by raising Bank Rate this month, send a strong signal that it was focused on inflation and remained determined to bring it back to target in the medium term.”

And here is the fear of following that course of action:

“An increase in Bank Rate in the current circumstances, when confidence was low and the financial sector fragile, could impart a downward momentum to the economy that risked a significant undershoot of inflation in the medium term.”

Voting for no change
The Governor
Charles Bean
John Gieve
Kate Barker
Spencer Dale
Andrew Sentance
Paul Tucker

Voting for a rate hike
Tim Besley

Voting for a rate reduction
David Blanchflower

My own view is that I think we will see base interest rates coming down quite sharply in the second half of 2009 if the economic downturn turns into something much deeper. Lower oil prices will help to bring down CPI and RPI inflation over the next twelve months and we can only hope that the forecast super-spike in household energy prices is not as bad as feared.

Unit 2 Macro: Cyclical and Structural Economic Issues Facing the UK [23 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Evaluation on Supply-Side Policies [21 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Migration and the UK Economy [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Positive and Negative Multiplier Effects [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Measuring Inflation in the UK [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Real Interest Rates [20 May 2012]
Q&A: What do we need to know about output gaps? [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Output Gap [20 May 2012]
Revision notes on unemployment [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Bank Cuts UK growth Forecast for 2012 [16 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision Notes on Supply-side Policies [10 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Model answer for revision data question [9 May 2012]
Unit 3 Micro: The Dawn of a Shareholder Spring? [8 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Monetary Policy and Inflation Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Trade and Balance of Payments Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Economic Cycle Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Aggregate Demand Glossary [5 May 2012]
Macro Revision - Key Statistics on the UK Economy [4 May 2012]
Macro Revision: Putting Things in Context [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Inflation and the Business Environment [6 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate [3 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Real Economic Data [2 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Real Disposable Income [2 Apr 2012]
Posen on slower growth in the UK compared to the USA [30 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Capital Investment [30 Mar 2012]
Life in the Slow Lane - UK Growth in 2011 Lags the Euro Area [28 Mar 2012]
George Buckley at the Millfield Economics Society [28 Mar 2012]
Beyond the Bike - Monetary Policy in Africa [28 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Evaluating 3 Years of Quantitative Easing [27 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Video Resources on the Euro Crisis [10 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Policies to Drive Economic Recovery [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Might Oil Prices Bring another Recession? [4 Mar 2012]
Economies hooked on central bank stimulants? [4 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: King on the UK Economy [15 Feb 2012]
Evaluating the effect of Quantitative Easing - A Case Against? [12 Feb 2012]
Martin Wolf on Global Shocks [10 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Signs of Progress for Zimbabwe [29 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Inflation [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Money, Debt and the New World Order [22 Jan 2012]
Inflation - what’s up, what’s down and what’s going to happen next [17 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: UK Bond Yields Reach Record Lows [11 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Factors Driving Business Investment [10 Jan 2012]
Hopes and Fears 2012 [10 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Quantitative Easing in the UK [8 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The UK Housing Market in 2011 [26 Dec 2011]
Rising prices and falling real incomes [13 Dec 2011]
Where is the UK Economy? National Output [22 Nov 2011]
Beyond the Bike - The Value of Money [19 Nov 2011]
AS Macro: The State of British Business [13 Nov 2011]
Australia lowers interest rate to 4.5% [1 Nov 2011]
Can the “invisible hand” solve Africa’s poverty? [13 Oct 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Unit Labour Costs and Inflation [12 Oct 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: UK suffers a weak recovery [12 Oct 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: UK Inflation Charts [12 Oct 2011]
Why Is Macroeconomics Such A Mess? [11 Oct 2011]
University Challenged [11 Oct 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Homework Assignment on Consumer Spending [3 Oct 2011]
Unit 1 Micro: Exercise on Market Supply [26 Sep 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Greek Economy at Default’s Door [25 Sep 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: IMF Flags up Risks of Double Dip [20 Sep 2011]
Inflation in India [18 Sep 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Interest Rates and Income Inequality [16 Sep 2011]
Study Note - Macroeconomic policy objectives [16 Sep 2011]
UK Macro: Risks of a Double Dip Recession [12 Sep 2011]
John Kay on the future of Economics [26 Aug 2011]
Monetary Policy Roundtable [25 Jul 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Dangers of High Inflation [11 Jul 2011]
Unit 1 Micro: High price of petrol drains demand [9 Jul 2011]
A2 Macro: Consumer Spending [30 May 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Supply-Side Policies [25 May 2011]
AQA Macro: Remember to revise inflation [25 May 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Demand Pull Inflation [24 May 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Deflation [24 May 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Cost Push Inflation [24 May 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Inflation [24 May 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Economic Recovery [23 May 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Recession [23 May 2011]
A2 Micro: The Importance of Profit [19 May 2011]
UK Economy Update: What Mervyn Said [11 May 2011]
AS Micro: What´s really behind the oil price rise? [10 May 2011]
Interest Rates Held at 0.5% once again [5 May 2011]
AS Macro: Updated presentation on monetary policy [4 May 2011]
Macroeconomics revision - measuring Consumer Confidence [4 May 2011]
AS Micro: Rising Global Food Prices [2 May 2011]
Video Clips on the Chinese Economy [1 May 2011]
AS and A2 Macro Revision: Keynesian Economics [28 Apr 2011]
Rise in investment could kick start recovery [18 Apr 2011]
UK Economy at a Glance April 2011 [17 Apr 2011]
China set to become exporter of inflation [14 Apr 2011]
A2 Macro: Back to Roubini - a Year On! [11 Apr 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Real Disposable Income [11 Apr 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Monetary Policy Tightening [11 Apr 2011]
AS Micro: Prices for New and Second Hand Cars [9 Apr 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Double-Dip Recession [8 Apr 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Jobless Recovery [8 Apr 2011]
UK Minimum Wage rises by 2.5% in October 2011 [8 Apr 2011]
ECB breaks rank and raises interest rates [7 Apr 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Fiscal Austerity [6 Apr 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Aggregate Supply Shock [6 Apr 2011]
AS Macro Key Term: Inflationary Pressure [5 Apr 2011]

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