Anatomy of previous UK recessions
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Every recession is different - both in terms of the initial causes and also the differential impact that it has on consumers, businesses, industries and regions. Deutche Bank’s latest UK economic forecast is pretty gloomy - they are now pencilling in economic growth of just 1.2% in 2008 and 0.3% in 2009. House prices are now expected to fall 25% in nominal terms (35% in real terms) from peak to trough.
In their research they produce a rather natty chart showing how quarterly growth rates of the various output and expenditure components of GDP have behaved during previous UK recessions. On average the level of real national output declines by 0.7% for each quarter of a ‘technical recession’ - but capital investment tends to fall by much more - it might be worth asking students why this happens? Why - on the basis of previous experience - does the industrial sector seem to bear the brunt of recessionary conditions? Why does government spending continue to rise and that of the farm sector?
If a recession happens in 2008-09 - which industries are most likely to feel the full force of the decline in real activity? Presumably construction and financial services will be badly affected - from where I am sat in an Edinburgh hotel at the peak of the Festival season it looks like the tourism and leisure industry is also having a rough ride too!
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Investment in Energy Infrastructure [23 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Cyclical and Structural Economic Issues Facing the UK [23 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Evaluation on Supply-Side Policies [21 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Current Account of the Balance of Payments [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Migration and the UK Economy [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Positive and Negative Multiplier Effects [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Importance of Productivity [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Human Development Index (HDI) [20 May 2012]
Q&A: What do we need to know about output gaps? [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Output Gap [20 May 2012]
Revision notes on unemployment [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Bank Cuts UK growth Forecast for 2012 [16 May 2012]
Grexit - Andrew Balls on Greece and the Euro [16 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision Notes on Supply-side Policies [10 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Model answer for revision data question [9 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Growth and Development Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Trade and Balance of Payments Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Unemployment Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Fiscal Policy Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Economic Cycle Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Aggregate Demand Glossary [5 May 2012]
Macro Revision - Key Statistics on the UK Economy [4 May 2012]
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Macro Revision: Putting Things in Context [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Britain back in Recession [29 Apr 2012]
Tullow Oil and African Development [25 Apr 2012]
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Unit 2 Macro: Heathow’s Capacity and Connectivity Crunch [22 Apr 2012]
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Unit 2 Macro: The UK Balance of Payments in 2011 [4 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate [3 Apr 2012]
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Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Per Capita Incomes [26 Jan 2012]
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AS Macro: The State of British Business [13 Nov 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Video Clips on Unemployment [6 Nov 2011]
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AS and A2 Macro: GDP resources from Planet Money [31 Oct 2011]
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Keynes Prize: The Economics of Cities (1) [12 Oct 2011]
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Skidelsky in Madrid [12 Oct 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: UK suffers a weak recovery [12 Oct 2011]
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Unit 1 Micro: Producing Coffee - Kenya in Pictures [4 Oct 2011]
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