After the storm

A more balanced recovery

Whisper it quietly but there are cautious grounds for believing that an economic recovery when it finally arrives might be more sustainable and balanced than the unbalanced expansion in the years running up to the recession. As in the years following our emergence from the slump of 1990-92, the British economy is likely to see a phase of growth which is less dependent on household consumption and government spending and where the export sector might lead the way. Even manufacturing industry - whose share of value added in national output has been on a long-term downward trajectory - may enjoy something of a renaissance.

Despite historically low interest rates and the short term relief of a decline in global food prices, household spending is likely to be subdued because of

Rising unemployment - the claimant count is set to rise above 2 million and the labour force survey measure above 3 million
Households will have to continue paring back their debts and building up savings balances, especially those caught in the negative equity trap
Many workers will experience wage freezes or pay cuts and disposable incomes will be hit by rising taxation and a fall in bonuses and overtime payments
Credit will remain hard to come by - keep in mind that, dejavascript:promptTag(“link”);spite policy interest rates of 0.5%, unsecured interest rates on bank loans, overdrafts and on credit cards have become more expensive. Many banks have not passed on in full the effects of recent interest rate cuts
It will take time for consumer confidence to rebound especially if there is a delayed and muted recovery in the housing market. Expectations and trust have taken a battering

In his latest Deloitte Economic Review Roger Bootle considers what shape a recovery might take.

The key to his analysis is the delayed effects of the 25-30 per cent depreciation of sterling on a trade weighted basis. The benefits of a more competitive exchange rate have been muted because of the downturn in global GDP and trade - falling real incomes and spending in our major export markets have outweighed the substitution effect of cheaper prices for British exported goods and services. But this turn round eventually.

Whilst financial services are likely to remain in the doldrums, Bootle points to other industries well placed to reap the rewards of a lower pound - tourism, biotechnology, education and health services, businesses serving large-scale environmental projects, architecture and advertising. These are areas in which we are well served and have a revealed competitive advantage to judge from the balance of payments statistics.

Higher exports and a pick up in capital investment - these are the twin pillars needed for balanced recovery after the storm.

Unit 2 Macro: Cyclical and Structural Economic Issues Facing the UK [23 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Evaluation on Supply-Side Policies [21 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Migration and the UK Economy [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Positive and Negative Multiplier Effects [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Importance of Productivity [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Measuring Unemployment in the UK [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Measuring Inflation in the UK [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Human Development Index (HDI) [20 May 2012]
Q&A: What do we need to know about output gaps? [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Output Gap [20 May 2012]
Revision notes on unemployment [20 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Bank Cuts UK growth Forecast for 2012 [16 May 2012]
Grexit - Andrew Balls on Greece and the Euro [16 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Economics of a Minimum Wage [12 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Poverty and Inequality and Market Failure [12 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision Notes on Supply-side Policies [10 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision Blogs on Markets and Intervention [10 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Model answer for revision data question [9 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Exchange Rates Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Growth and Development Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Unemployment Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Fiscal Policy Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Economic Cycle Glossary [5 May 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Aggregate Demand Glossary [5 May 2012]
Macro Revision - Key Statistics on the UK Economy [4 May 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Using the Cost-Benefit Principle [30 Apr 2012]
Macro Revision: Putting Things in Context [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Spanish unemployed head to Argentina [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Britain back in Recession [29 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: The Euro Zone Crisis (Revision) [22 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Better news on jobs in the UK? [19 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Managing the Global Commons - Limits to GDP [15 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Skills Shortages Hold Back Recovery [12 Apr 2012]
Superb article on unemployment [8 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: How the Economic Cycle affects Businesses [6 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The UK Balance of Payments in 2011 [4 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate [3 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Productivity Improvements in China [3 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Floating and Managed Floating Exchange Rates [2 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Real Economic Data [2 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Unemployment Scarring Effects [2 Apr 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Pain in Spain as Fiscal Austerity Bites [1 Apr 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Revision on Maximum Rents in Housing [1 Apr 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Gross National Happiness in Bhutan [31 Mar 2012]
Posen on slower growth in the UK compared to the USA [30 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Capital Investment [30 Mar 2012]
Global Economy- the 2012 BRICS Summit [28 Mar 2012]
Intergenerational Equity - Fairness and the Slump [28 Mar 2012]
Blanchflower calls for more action to address youth jobless crisis [28 Mar 2012]
Life in the Slow Lane - UK Growth in 2011 Lags the Euro Area [28 Mar 2012]
George Buckley at the Millfield Economics Society [28 Mar 2012]
Beyond the Bike - Monetary Policy in Africa [28 Mar 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Evaluating 3 Years of Quantitative Easing [27 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: The Tax on Beer [16 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Inequality - The Rise of Fuel Poverty [15 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Seasonal and Structural Unemployment [15 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro: Government launches New Buy Loan Guarantee Scheme [12 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Policies to Drive Economic Recovery [9 Mar 2012]
Unit 1 Micro - Labour Migration and the Economy [5 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Might Oil Prices Bring another Recession? [4 Mar 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: A Man Regains his Self Respect [25 Feb 2012]
Unit 1 Economics: Panorama - Poor America [17 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: The Dash for Gas in Mozambique [17 Feb 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: King on the UK Economy [15 Feb 2012]
Economics Explained, by Evan [12 Feb 2012]
Martin Wolf on Global Shocks [10 Feb 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Growth and Development - Some Indicators [30 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Focus on India - Comparative Advantage [27 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Trade and Growth [27 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Carbon Emissions and Growth [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Per Capita Incomes [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Changing Economic Structure [26 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Focus on India - Economic Growth [24 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Money, Debt and the New World Order [22 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Living below the Breadline [19 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Economics of Fiscal Deficit Reduction [12 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Factors Driving Business Investment [10 Jan 2012]
Hopes and Fears 2012 [10 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: A Jobs Boost for the US Economy [8 Jan 2012]
Unit 2 Macro: Revision Quiz on Economics of Unemployment [5 Jan 2012]
Unit 4 Macro: Video Resources on Unemployment [3 Jan 2012]
2011 in Review - The US Economy [27 Dec 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: The UK Housing Market in 2011 [26 Dec 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Brazil Overtakes UK in Economic Size [26 Dec 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: The Rise in Self Employment [17 Dec 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Long Term Unemployment - A Human Story [15 Dec 2011]
Unit 1 Micro: Empty Housing and Economic Efficiency [15 Dec 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Does UK Manufacturing have a Future? [30 Nov 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Will a Youth Jobs Subsidy Work? [30 Nov 2011]
Behavioural Economics: Herd Behaviour [28 Nov 2011]
Where is the UK Economy? National Output [22 Nov 2011]
UK unemployment in November 2011 - a video overview [22 Nov 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: A Prezi on Unemployment Policies [16 Nov 2011]
AS Macro: The State of British Business [13 Nov 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: America’s hour-glass economy [9 Nov 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: Video Clips on Unemployment [6 Nov 2011]
Unit 3 Micro: Impulses to Change Management Models [5 Nov 2011]
AS and A2 Macro: GDP resources from Planet Money [31 Oct 2011]
Unit 4 Macro: Unemployment Chart Resource Download [29 Oct 2011]
Unit 2 Macro: A Widening Regional Divide in Life Expectancy [19 Oct 2011]

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