Unit 2 Macro: Human Development Index (HDI)
The Human Development Index (HDI) forms part of the annual human development report and is a composite measure of economic and social welfare that has three main components. At its most basic it focuses on longevity, basic education and minimal income and progress made by countries in improving these three outcomes. The inclusion of education and health indicators is a sign of successful government policies in providing access to important merit goods such as health care, sanitation and education. World Human Development Map
1. Knowledge: First an educational component made up of two statistics – mean years of schooling and expected years of schooling
2. Long and healthy life: Second a life expectancy component is calculated using a minimum value for life expectancy of 25 years and maximum value of 85 years
3. A decent standard of living: The final element is gross national income (GNI) per capita adjusted to purchasing power parity standard (PPP)
“Human development is the expansion of people’s freedom to live long, healthy and creative lives; to advance other goals they have reason to value; and to engage actively in shaping development equitably and sustainably on a shared planet. People are both the beneficiaries and the drivers of human development, as individuals and in groups” Source: HDR Report, November 2010
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Unit 4 Macro: African Human Development Report 2012
May 15th 2012 marks the day when the African Human Development Report 2012 is published. This will no doubt become a key reference point for students and teachers who are passionate about their development economics.
“Sub-Saharan Africa cannot sustain its present economic resurgence unless it eliminates the hunger that affects nearly a quarter of its people, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) argues. More than one in four Africans - close to 218 million people - is undernourished, African governments spend between 5-10% of their budgets on agriculture, well below the 20% average that Asian governments devoted to the sector during the green revolution there.”
Resources:
African Human Development Report 2012
Guardian: Sub-Saharan Africa can only grow if it solves hunger crisis – UNDP
read more...»Unit 1 Micro: Economics of Cocoa Prices
A revision blog on recent developments in the international cocoa market
read more...»Knoema: ‘The Youtube of Data’
I have found Knoema incredibly useful for collecting data and imagine it would be an excellent site for teaching colleagues and researchers, particularly with its focus on Economics. The Guardian’s data team have a good article on it today.
read more...»Development Economics Revision Pack- Updated for 2012!
I’ve updated my development economics revision pack with lots of new case studies for 2012. Read on to find out how to download the pack
read more...»Made in China - but not quite so cheaply…...
How long can China keep its comparative advantage of cheap production for manufacturing goods? We are aware of rising inflation in China which is eroding their advantage, and here is an article about a UK firm which manufactures cushions, some from a factory in Kirkby on Merseyside and some from his factory in the Zhejiang province in China. The story comes from a programme ‘The Town taking on China’ to be shown on BBC2 at 8pm tonight - and subsequently on i-player.
read more...»Tullow Oil and African Development
Yesterday I spent a fascinating evening in the company of Aidan Heavey, Founder and CEO of Tullow Oil plc, Africa’s leading independent oil exploration business and the top performer among FTSE-100 listed businesses on the UK stock exchange. It has approximately 100 production and exploration licenses in 22 countries.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: African Aid - Helpful or Harmful?
This highly interactive programme on Al Jazeerah a few days ago focused on the impact of foreign aid on the African economy. It runs for 35 minutes but there is plenty of interesting debate and many comments flying in on the twitter feeds. Plenty of discussion that might inform a revision session on the future for the African economy and the debate over the effectiveness of aid programmes.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Managing the Global Commons - Limits to GDP
In this excellent 20 minute talk Professor Geoffrey Heal from Columbia University discusses the broad concept of society’s capital including natural capital. He focuses on the limits of GDP as a measure of economic progress in a world that depletes all forms of capital including natural capital. Net Domestic Product (rather than GDP), HDI, HPI and adjusted net savings all get a mention in his talk. Being rich and being sustainable are rarely the same thing.
He defines sustainability as “keeping the total value of a nation’s capital stock in tact” and this definition encompasses all forms of capital (physical, intellectual, social, human, natural). Economic development changes the profile of a nation’s capital stock - for example industrialisation leads to deforestation and a rapid run down of natural capital, replaced often by life-changing physical capital, intellectual capital and human capital.
Living standards have been raised through this substitution process but the fundamental question central to the whole environmental debate is the extent to which the natural stock of capital can continue to be run down at present rates.
The weight of scientific knowledge says that the answer is no - we cannot replace a stable climate by more human and physical capital under a business as usual pathway. Heal argues for strong sustainability - giving bigger emphasis to protecting and maintaining eco-systems.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Globalisation Revision Quiz
This 12 question - Type the Answer - Revision Quiz created using Zondle focuses on globalisation
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Brazilian Growth and Sustainability
A short BBC news video here on rapid growth and development in the Brazilian city of Manaus, on the banks of the Amazon river. A new bridge across the world’s biggest river and a healthy manufacturing sector are providing many new jobs. But what of the ecological challenges and threats that this creates?
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Globalisation and the Growth of Ports
Ports are a key part of the critical infrastructure of a country engaged in trade with the rest of the world. This BBC news video looks at the rapid expansion of container ports in the Gulf - facilities that offer a vital link between Europe to the west and China and India to the east.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Productivity Improvements in China
Productivity is a measure of the efficiency with which a country combines capital and labour to produce more with the same level of factor inputs. We commonly focus on labour productivity measured by output per person employed or output per person hour.
A better measure of underlying productivity growth is total factor productivity which takes into account changes in the amount of capital available for each worker to use and also changes in the size of the labour force.
To give a simple numerical example, if the size of the capital stock grows by 3% and the employed workforce expands by 2% and output (GDP) increases by 8%, then total factor productivity has increased by 3%.
China has achieved impressive gains in productivity in recent years. Some of this is undoubtedly the huge spending on capital investment which has grown to nearly 50% of China’s GDP. The labour force has also grown although this is scheduled to level off and then decline in the years ahead.
What has driven improvements in Chinese total factor productivity?
read more...»Unit 1 Micro: The Collapsing Price of Carbon
The price of carbon emissions permits inside the EU’s emissions trading system has fallen to a record low. A sharp fall in total CO2 emissions in Europe has been the driving factor behind the fall in the carbon price. Last year Germany’s CO2 emissions fell by 1.2% and the UK saw a 7.2% reduction. The overall decline in the 27 country ETS was 2.4% in 2011 causing the carbon price to drop below 7 Euros per tonne.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Gross National Happiness in Bhutan
On Monday 2nd April 2012 a landmark resolution (number 65) is before the United Nations General Assembly. Bhutan has a population under 800,000, the average income is about $110 per month - low enough for the vast majority of people in Bhutan not to have to pay taxes. The fledgling Bhutanese constitution requires that at least 60% of the country remains under forest cover forever and its stated policy is to be 100% organic in its agricultural production. Major progress has been made in achieving rising per capita incomes, reduced infant mortality, higher life expectancy and a rising percentage of females in education.
Resolution 65 states that “happiness is a fundamental human goal and universal aspiration; that GDP by its nature does not reflect that goal; that unsustainable patterns of production and consumption impede sustainable development; and that more inclusive, equitable and balanced approach is needed to promote sustainability, eradicate poverty and enhance well-being”.
The passing of resolution 65 is a small stepping stone towards a wider recognition that ecological sustainability, equity, and life satisfaction are being given great emphasis in global politics. But whether gross national happiness (GNH) will ever substitue Gross National Income as one of the default measures of economic progress is doubtful.
Bhutan leads the world to a new economy of happiness (Guardian)
read more...»Unit 1 Micro: Brazilian coffee buffer stock hit by falling prices
Just a few years ago, Conab, Brazil’s official crop bureau was busy buying up surplus supplies of Brazilian coffee to support the weak global price of high quality arabica coffee. Over the years Conab has accumulated large stockpiles of coffee in their warehouses. Some estimates put the 2002-2003 stockpile purchases at just under 4 million kg together with 1.9m kg bought in 2007-08. The 2009-10 buffer stock purchases are much higher - exceeding 91 million kg. That is a lot of coffee to hold in reserve!
In theory a buffer stock scheme should be profitable when stocks are purchased at a low price and then off-loaded onto the market when prices are higher. Indeed Conab was planning just such a sale earlier this year before favorable weather and the speculators intervened. Better than expected coffee harvests in Brazil have prompted a steep fall in coffee prices and the buffer stock has postponed an intervention into the market.
The coffee price drop is a far cry from last year. Arabica coffee prices hit a 34-year high in March 2011 amid fears of a shortage. Since then, much has changed. From a peak of $3.089 per pound nearly a year ago, prices are down roughly 40 per cent to $1.851 per pound.
Inventories of high-quality beans remain low, but the threat of a shortage has vanished as Brazil is expected to see a bumper harvest this year. This is in contrast to a number of other coffee-growing countries - but Brazil remains a dominant force in the market.
read more...»Global Economy- the 2012 BRICS Summit
Leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are meeting for the 4th time to discuss a deepening of economic ties within the fast-growing bloc of countries. The acronym BRIC was first coined by Jim O’Neill from Goldman Sachs in 2001. Recently he suggested another group of countries that deserved to be included in a broader grouping of high-growth and increasingly influential economies in the world economic system.
These countries make up forty per-cent of the world’s population and over a fifth of global GDP. Crucially they, and another cluster of rapid-growth countries will be the main drivers of world growth in the years ahead even though they are not immune to the financial volatility and commodity price inflation inflicting external shocks on advanced nations.
One of the key items on the summit’s agenda is a proposal to establish a “BRICS Bank” that would fund development projects and infrastructure in developing nations. The summit is also on opportunity to discuss ways of building intra-BRICS trade, which expanded by 28 percent last year to $230 billion. There are divisions within the BRIC grouping - for example Brazil’s criticisms of China’s exchange rate policies but the summit is a reminder that the balance of power and influence in the world economy is changing forever.
Here is a selection of news articles and videos covering the BRICS summit for 2012
read more...»Beyond the Bike - Monetary Policy in Africa
When my old boss told me that observing UK inflation flying above 3% would be an exciting moment in my career as an economist in London, I knew it was time to leave. Most African policymakers, meanwhile, would be delighted to see single digit inflation. I’ve discussed the challenges of formulating monetary policy as well as for the broader economy with two central bankers en route so far…
Brian Khan sits on the South Africa Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee. A former academic at the prestigious University of Cape Town, he kindly agreed to see me at the SARB’s Pretoria HQ before I set off in July last year. Stephen Kabayo, meanwhile, is head of financial markets at the Bank of Uganda (BoU). A long term stalwart at the Bank, his career spanning 3 decades, I spoke to him & his head of research Jimmy Appa in Kampala earlier this month.
Author with Brian Khan (July 2011). Questions over ID of author at BoU, Feb 2012.Stephen Kabako at BoU – I had spoken at his son’s school the day before; Jimmy Appa in the Monetary Policy Committee Room
read more...»Solar Panels and Tariffs
The US and China rely heavily on each other for trade but retaliatory protectionist policies continue to be a recurring theme between these two nations that prevent the free movement of goods and services between the two countries. Allegations that the undervalued Yuan gives an unfair advantage to Chinese exporters, twinned with high US unemployment has led to protectionist American responses and a tariff (tax on imports) on Chinese solar panels to protect this strategic and growing industry. The move followed a review by the US Commerce Department which in a preliminary decision claimed that Chinese firms are benefiting from unfair export subsidies.
read more...»Which is the world’s biggest employer?
One of my favourite little statistical gems has always been the claim that the NHS is the world’s third largest employer, after the Indian Railways and the Chinese army, so it is deeply disappointing to find that this is not true - it’s actually only the fifth on the list with 1.7 million staff.
Ahead of the NHS are McDonalds’ global workforce in 4th place (1.9 million), Walmart, including Asda in the UK in third (2.1 million), the Chinese army 2nd with 2.3 million and, at the top of the table, the US Department of Defense with a whopping 3.2million staff - although only 1.6 million of these are on active service,with the rest in civilian and other support roles.
read more...»Evidence of the dangers of protectionism
One of the dangers for a country implementing protectionist measures is the risk of retaliatory action. We have only to look at US-China trade relations to find plenty of evidence for this. The US objects to what they see as a Chinese policy of deliberately holding down the value of the yuan in order to boost Chinese exports. However, in addition to this they also object to government subsidies which the Chinese government give to some of their producers in order to help lower their production costs and so make their goods even more competitive in world markets.
read more...»Unit 1 Micro - Labour Migration and the Economy
Migration from one country to another has become an increasingly important feature of our globalizing world and it raises many important economic, social and political issues. About 200-million people — about 3% of the world’s population — now live in countries in which they were not born. In the United Kingdom in 2010, the number of international migrants as a percentage of the population rose above 10% for the first time after several years of high rates of net inward migration
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Sovereign Wealth Funds
Students of A2 macro will no doubt becoming increasingly familiar with coverage of sovereign wealth funds in their study of global economics, trade, investment and currency developments. A sovereign wealth fund is a government or state run investment fund usually created by supernormal profits from natural resources such as oil, gas or minerals. Here is some brief background on them:
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Might Oil Prices Bring another Recession?
The international price of crude oil has been rising strongly in recent weeks and threatens to be an external factor driving an already weak Euro Zone and UK economy back into recession.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Rosling on China and the UK Converging
Here is a lovely three minute Newsnight video featuring Hans Rosling on the convergence in income per capita and health outcomes between China and the UK. Great presentation.
The Economics of Climate Change - Stern 5 Years On
Lord Nick Stern tonight gave the first of three lectures on the ethics and economics of climate change as the annual lecture series in honour of Lionel Robbins started at the LSE.
It is over five years since the publication of the Stern Report and much has happened in the intervening period. Stern however was at pains to emphasise that his core message remained undimmed, namely that the costs of inaction are enormous but the costs of early action to cut emissions are manageable. We have seen in recent years rapid technological change much of which is hugely encouraging in taking us closer to de-coupling the relationship between production and consumption and carbon emissions. But more is needed, Stern is arguing in these three lectures for a new industrial revolution, a deep set of changes to production processes and technologies that happens across every sector. The economics and politics of how progress might be made in moving towards a new revolution will be the focus of the second and third lectures.
LECTURE 1 - Tuesday 21 February 2012
What we risk and how we should cast the economics and ethics
LECTURE 2 - Wednesday 22 February 2012
How we can respond and prosper
LECTURE 3 - Thursday 23 February 2012
How we can get there: building national and international action
Unit 2 Macro: The Dash for Gas in Mozambique
In the last twelve months two huge discoveries of natural gas have been made in the East African country of Mozambique. The latest - a deepwater discovery - is said to hold over 210 billion cubic metres of natural gas and investment in exploiting the field could be the major cataylst for a rapid phase of growth and development for one of the world’s poorest countries. The country has large untapped oil, coal and titanium reserves in addition to the gas. According to the UK Trade and Investment body, within 15 years Mozambique could be Africa’s second largest coal producer (after South Africa) and one of the largest coal exporters in the world.
Can it benefit in a sustainable way from exporting these resources or will they prove to be a curse on development?
For many years Mozambique has been afflicted by a brutal civil war which ended in 1992 and then a series of natural disasters including floods in 2001 and 2001 which destroyed much of its infrastructure.Floods were replaced by a calamitous drought in 2002 but more recently the economy has achieved strong growth and progress in lifting people out of absolute poverty. That said, 50% of Mozambicans living on less than $1 a day, foreign aid accounts for nearly half of government spending and there remain severe doubts about whether the dividends of an export-boom in natural resources will feed through the the majority of the population.
The Mozambique government has a 10% stake in the newly-discovered gas fields, it sold a licence to the Italian company Eni to explore for new gas reserves and Eni has committed to building a multibillion-dollar liquefied natural gas terminal in the country as a distribution platform to export mainly to fast-growing Asian economies.
Other transnational companies are investing in Mozambique. Vale, a Brazilian multinational is spending over $3 billion to rebuild and extend the 425 mile Nacala railway and connect it to a deep water port so that Mozambiquan coal can be exported.
Putting the infrastructure in place will take several years and gas production on a huge scale may not start before 2016. Although new industries brings risks as well as opportunities, the potential for a step change in development in the country is enormous.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: China’s Trade Engine is Spluttering
New data suggests that the rapid growth of exports from China is once again slowing down. This Reuters business news video (2 minutes) provides some useful background information on the recent downturn in export and import volumes and mentions that rising imports and a shrinking trade surplus may help the Chinese to rebalance their economy and perhaps provide a demand stimulus for exporters from struggling European countries.
That said the continued weakness of many EU countries will make it difficult for Chinese exporters to maintain sales and employment. During the global recession of 2008-09 millions of workers in Chinese manufacturing industry lost their jobs prompting many to return to their rural homelands in search of work and income.
* Which industries in China are likely to be most affected by a reduction in the growth of exports?
read more...»A backward step on the Maldives’ road to democracy?
In development economics one of the issues that can often be a barrier to a country’s development is political instability, and it looks like the Maldives will be my case study this year. Read on to find out why
read more...»China bans its airlines from paying EU carbon tax
On 1st January this year, the EU introduced an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) which levies a charge on flights in EU airspace based on carbon emissions. They estimate that this will add between 2 and 12 euros to flight tickets. Airlines are required to purchase emissions permits, like utilities and heavy industry in the EU, and airlines that do not comply face fines of 100 euros for each tonne of carbon dioxide emitted for which they have not surrendered allowances. In the case of persistent offenders, the EU has the right to ban airlines from its airports.
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