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Impact of a rising £

Wednesday, June 04, 2014

Last autumn all the talk was of the impact of a plunging sterling exchange rate and the UK’s struggle to find new export markets. According to most observers it was time to ‘rebalance’ the economy towards a more export-lead model of growth. George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer, talked of “a Britain carried aloft by the march of the makers”. 

The plan was for a revival in manufacturing and exports, driven, at least in part, by a weaker pound. Sterling had fallen by 30% during the financial crisis, but since early 2013 the pound has climbed back, appreciating by 10% in trade-weighted terms.

What impact might this have?

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Evaluating UK interest rates

Thursday, May 15, 2014

England's odds of winning the World Cup are about 30-1 - which reflects a rather low level of confidence that we have a realistic chance. However, the Governor of the Bank of England seems to think that a safer bet would be to back the recovery of the UK economy, judging by Mark Carney's launch of the latest Inflation Report yesterday. He likened the path the economy has to follow to that of England's task in Brazil, and said that the Bank's priority was to steer the economy through the opening rounds, all the way to victory. 

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UK Economy: The Rise of Sterling

Thursday, April 24, 2014

In recent months the external value of the pound has been rising quite strongly. Indeed it has outperformed a cluster of other countries even though we have seen a rise in the UK's current account deficit on the balance of payments. Stephanie Flanders, chief market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, talks to the Financial Times about the sterling's out-performance and what impact the strong pound is likely to have on the UK economy.

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Unit 4 Macro: Quick Quiz on Exchange Rate Systems

Thursday, April 10, 2014

Using the IMF's annual survey of exchange rate systems for each country - have a go at this ten question quiz!

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Unit 4 Macro: Revision on Balance of Payments

All exam boards require candidates to have an understanding of the Balance of Payments and Exchange Rates. In this session we will focus on the causes of the UK’s Balance of Trade (aka Current Account) deficit, what we can do about it, and how an exchange rate depreciation should affect an economy, and has affected the UK post financial crisis.

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Unit 4 Macro: The Rise of Managed Exchange Rates

The new IMF report on the global economy published in April 2014 includes a focus on the currency regimes chosen by emerging market countries.  An increasing number of central banks have switched from free-floating exchange rates to managed currency regimes - perhaps because they want to make more active use of the exchange rate as an instrument of monetary policy. 

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Unit 4 Macro: Fixed Currencies and Crisis Recovery

Thursday, April 03, 2014

The nominal exchange rate is a key adjustment tool to help countries avoid traumatic balance of payments crises. And when a country is in a crisis, external adjustment is delayed and more difficult under a pegged exchange rate regime. These are the central findings of research by Atish Ghosh and colleagues, to be presented at the Royal Economic Society’s 2014 annual conference.

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F585 Pre-Release Resources (and F583, F582 & F581 too)

Sunday, March 23, 2014

I thought it worthwhile sharing my resources which I have been collecting for students (and teachers alike). I have been promoting them on Twitter (@Economics_KSF) through scoop.it but for those of you not on there, the link for the scoop.it boards are here:

http://www.scoop.it/u/economics-kcsf

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Eurozone problems - excellent video resource

Friday, February 14, 2014

Gains from international trade, the history of European economic integration, fiscal and monetary policy, the launch of the €uro and the 2008 financial crisis are all clearly animated and explained in this superb video. In just over 12 minutes it explains the problems of the €urozone and the threats and challenges it still faces. Definitely one to watch for the closing stages of an A2 macro course.

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Unit 2 Macro: 10 Questions on Exchange Rates

Wednesday, February 05, 2014

Here are ten questions for students wanting to check their understanding on exchange rates

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Macro Policy Challenges in India and Japan

Sunday, January 26, 2014

My A2 macro students are now looking at some fascinating macro policy challenges facing a range of countries. This week they choose one from two set assignments. 

The first offers them an opportunity to analyse some of the causes of high inflation in India and consider how much of a threat it is to India's continued growth and development. 

A second assignment looks at Abenomics in Japan and whether it can lift the Japanese economy out of over two decades of slow growth and deflationary pressures. I am hoping that there will be some interesting insights allied to good A2 macro analysis as students crack on with their independent research. 

Download the assignment sheet below and I have added in some suggestions for further reading on the two topics

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Exchange rates and the ‘Big Mac’ Index

Thursday, January 23, 2014

This is a great learning aid, especially if you've not come across it before.  If you're trying to understand exchange rates, you often end up wondering which countries have overvalued exchange rates (that should, ideally, depreciate in value) or those that are undervalued (where appreciation would probably help).

The idea is so simple - find a product that's available in most countries, produced to a standardised design, and that serves as a reasonable 'basket of goods' capturing a range of price data for the economy you're looking at.  By this measure, the countries with expensive Big Macs have overvalued exchange rates and cheap Big Macs means an undervalued exchange rate.

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Unit 4 Macro: Latvia Joins the Euro

Monday, January 20, 2014

On the 1st January 2014, Latvia became the 18th country to enter the single currency Euro area, joining Estonia who adopted the Euro four years ago. How will it affect the economy? Are the forecast benefits greater than the costs and risks? Here are some resources on the issue:

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Export destinations and UK export performance

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Two cartoons to illustrate two key issues: Britain doesn't export enough (especially goods) and so has a large current account deficit.

That's not to say that the UK doesn't have significant exports markets - but where?

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Falling sterling isn’t helping the current account

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

It isn’t supposed to be like this. The 'upside' of the recession and financial crisis was a steep depreciation in the value of sterling. That should have made our exports cheaper and imports dearer, thereby helping the UK to close its huge current account deficit. But as the graph above shows, it just hasn’t happened.

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Unit 4 Macro: Minerals and Development - Overcoming Resource Curses

Sunday, October 13, 2013

On the World Bank twitter account, President Jim Kim is quoted as saying that "Properly managed, new minerals wealth could transform Africa’s development." Back in June 2013, a new report from the African Progress Panel looked at this important issue and set out an agenda for maximising Africa’s natural resource wealth and using it to improve well-being.

My own students have been researching the economics of natural resources and whether they can be a blessing and/or a curse to countries seeking sustained growth and development. I just wanted to share one or two of these essays with you because I was delighted with the depth of the independent research on show and the quality of evaluation in their arguments.

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​Oxbridge Economics: China’s currency – where does it go from here?

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

China’s track record on using its currency as a tool for manipulating its international competitiveness has been well documented, especially during the period of 1995-2005, where it was pegged at 8.28 RMB to the USD.

However, adopting such strict policies on the exchange rate, leads to the Impossible Trinity / Trilemma - that is, that it is not possible for a country to have all three of the following at the same time:

    - A fixed exchange rate

    - Free movement of capital

    - An independent monetary policy

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Unit 2 Macro: india’s Faltering Economy

Wednesday, September 04, 2013

India is Asia's third largest economy but it is experiencing an economic slowdown with the rate of economic growth dipping to the lowest level in more than a decade.

The economy is suffering from a persistent trade deficit (worsened by a fall in exports), together with high rates of inflation and a sharply depreciating currency (the rupee). Billions of dollars of currency have been taken out of the economy by worried investors - this is known as capital flight.

Consumer demand for goods and services is being hit by rising prices as the cost of imports surges and other prices head higher too. Onion prices for example have more than trebled.

This BBC news video looks at the weakening of economic growth in India. Can India put in place economic reforms and policies to return the economy to the growth rate needed to sustain the improvement in living standards that has occurred since the early 1990s?

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Will the Indian Rupee continue to fall in value?

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

The main financial headlines in Mumbai recently have centred on the continued fall in the value of the Indian Rupee- now down by over 20% against the dollar in the last month. But what causes a currency to fall in value so sharply and so quickly?

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Chains of argument for analysis - linking inflation figures to the exchange rate

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

The headline on the BBC website this afternoon is "Pound falls after surprise dip in inflation". It is important that students taking the A2 economics papers next month are able to give current figures for the macroeconomic indicators, so they should take note of today's CPI inflation figure for April, which is down to 2.4% from 2.8%.

They should also note the reasons - weaker commodity prices and oil in particular, with petrol and diesel prices contributing half of the drop in inflation. Slow earnings growth is also expected to contribute to the outlook for inflation remaining closer to the 2% target than it has been since the end of 2009 - which also suggests that the remaining inflation is not due to demand-pull pressures, but to cost-push.

But can they explain why and how the announcement of a lower rate of inflation has led to a weaker pound? It is not enough, in an essay, simply to state that this cause-and-effect has taken place; in order to gain good marks for analysis, it is essential to trace the process by which one leads to the other. This article from Reuters should give the clues that they need to fill the gaps on the table below ...


Strong Baht May Damage Thai Economy

Wednesday, May 08, 2013

This week, I’ve been revising exchange rate policies with my Year 13 Economics class. This is a hot topic in Thailand as the Baht recently hit a 17 year high against the dollar. 

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Paul Ormerod: Sovereign debt and Euro zone reality

Thursday, April 11, 2013

The recent debacle in Cyprus has essentially been shrugged off by the markets.  The European Central Bank vigorously asserts the crisis in the Euro zone is over.  So why is there continued unease about the financial viability of countries such as Spain and Portugal, a morass into which even the French are now being dragged?

Economic theory helps us understand a bit more about why this is the case.  One thing which the last few years in Europe have shown very starkly is the massive difference between debt which is denominated in nominal terms and that which is in real terms.  Nobel Laureate Chris Sims makes the point clearly in his recently published Presidential Address to the American Economic Association. 

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Revision Quiz: AS Economics: Exchange Rates (1)

Tuesday, April 02, 2013

This 10-question revision quiz focuses on exchange rates.

Launch Revision Quiz: AS Economics: Exchange Rates (1)


Unit 4 Macro: Cyprus Infographics

Thursday, March 28, 2013

Here is a selection of resources on the Cyprus banking crisis and the controversial bail-in of uninsured large depositors. Particular credit to the team at Saxo Bank for an excellent info-graphic

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Why should a fall in output lead to a fall in the exchange rate?

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

This article gives the opportunity for some neat cause-and-effect analysis. The cause is data from the ONS which shows that manufacturing output fell by 1.5% in January, following a 0.9% rise in December. The effect? Sterling has fallen to another low against the dollar. However the chain of argument which links this to the fall in manufacturing data is missing, as if often the case in students' essays, and which tends to cost them valuable analysis marks in exams.

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Slow return to a British export led recovery?

Saturday, March 09, 2013

Aggregate Demand may be stimulated by an increase in exports. Ha-Joon Chang, Author of the best seller, 23 Things They Don’t Tell You About Capitalism considers reasons in a short article for The Guardian why this hasn't happened after Sterling had fallen against other major trading economies. " Compared with ...2007, the pound has been devalued about 30% against the dollar, 50% against the yen, and 20% against the struggling euro. Yet despite the huge incentive to export created by such devaluation, Britain is still running trade deficits because it has lost the productive capacity to respond."

It  may help students consider plausible policies to reduce its trade deficit, a macroeconomic goal overlooked in arguments over  fiscal and monetary policies to control inflation or output. Finally it may aid evaluation, how different are the most pressing short and long term macroeconomic challengers facing UK governments.

Link to most trade figures.

 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade/december-2012/stb-uk-trade--december-2012.html#tab-Economic-Context


Unit 4 Macro: China’s Presence in Europe

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

This is great for understanding key shifts in global trade and investment. The Economist offers this short video on the rising prominence of Chinese money in property and currency markets and FDI from Chinese businesses within the EU.

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Unit 4 Macro: Abenomics - Changing Monetary Policy in Japan

Sunday, February 10, 2013

Are you following important macroeconomic developments in Japan? The new government of Shinzo Abe is reforming monetary policy - including a change to the inflation target - and undertaking more aggressive fiscal measures. Will it work in lifting the Japanese economy to a higher growth plane after two decades and more of sluggish growth and the debilitating effects of price deflation?

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Unit 4 Macro: The UK Economy and the Euro


Mark Austen considers whether the UK economy has on balance benefited from being outside of the Euro Area in recent years

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Unit 4 Macro: The UK Economy Outside of the Euro Area

Monday, February 04, 2013

Evaluating the UK’s macro performance outside of the Euro Zone


  • Decision made in 2003 that the UK would remain outside of the single currency
  • UK remains a full member of the single market
  • Supportive of further EU enlargement but distanced from deeper fiscal / banking intregration

Crucial question both in the short and medium term is whether non-participation in the Euro makes a significant difference to key macro outcomes

  • Real GDP growth, estimated Trend growth (LRAS)
  • Core CPI inflation and inflation expectations
  • Employment and unemployment rates
  • Trade balances (with EU and beyond)
  • Trends in relative productivity and per capita incomes


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Unit 2 Macro: Key Term Glossary

Friday, January 04, 2013

An updated glossary of key terms for AS macro

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Using McDonald’s as an example - I’m loving it

Sunday, October 21, 2012

I was told off this week by my students for using McDonald's as an example to illustrate my point yet again.  In fact it was the second week on the trot that I was reprimanded as they told me previously that I was always peppering my conversation with Latin phrases "'cos it makes you sound more clever."

"No I don't," I replied - I've told my students a million times not to exaggerate.  The offending example came as I was attempting to explain how fatty foods (especially those from the exalted temple of the Golden Arches) were a demerit good.  I thought about it for a little while and realised that two weeks ago I'd told them about the use of 'stars' to motivate McDonald's staff and their extensive training programmes when we discussed labour productivity.  I'd also mentioned them when we discussed possible issues relating to economies of scale and the fact that a homogenised world can lead to less choice (a weak argument in their view - a McDonald's in every town sounded like a wonderful idea) and discussed the use of persuasive advertising as an example of non-price competition.  They were right, I seemed to be talking about McDonald's all the time - and I'm a vegetarian!

"Mea culpa," I confessed.

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Unit 4 Macro: The Dutch Disease

Tuesday, October 09, 2012

Dutch Disease was first coined in 1977 by The Economist in reference to the decline in the manufacturing sector in the Netherlands after the discovery of a large natural gas field in 1959. It is a phenomenon that arises when exploitation in the exporting of natural resources leads to an appreciation in the value of the currency of a country thus making its exports less competitive internationally. An increase in the revenues from natural resources pushes the value of a nation’s currency higher compared to other countries. This directly impacts the trade balance of that country as exports seem comparatively more expensive and thus less competitive. Out of all the sectors this has the greatest impact on the manufacturing sector. 

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Unit 4 Macro: Financing Trade - Renminbi Rising

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

The Chinese renminbi is not yet as recognisable as the US dollar or the Euro but with China's continued growth and rising influence as a major global economic power, their domestic currency is becoming more widely used when settling accounts in trade in goodsand services. In this new Financial Times video Denise Law explores the benefits of using renminbi in trade even though the renminbi is not yet fully-convertible in world foreign exchange markets.

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Unit 1 Micro: The Price of a Pizza in Brazil

Wednesday, August 08, 2012

Have a guess at the price tag (measured in US dollars) of a large margarita pizza in the comfortable middle-class environment of San Paulo in Brazil? Would you expect it to be less or more expensive than say a home delivered pizza to your house from leading UK business Dominos?

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Unit 4 Macro: China’s Foreign Currency Reserves

Monday, July 16, 2012

The rise in foreign currency reserves is largely the result of China’s enormous trade surpluses but also the consequence of intervention in currency markets by the Chinese central bank. To manage the value of the exchange rate it buys dollars and sells Yuan. China uses a large slice of their currency reserves to finance overseas investment including the role of Sovereign Wealth Funds to invest in developed and emerging countries including many in Africa. A rise in foreign currency reserves increases the money supply and has led to a surge in domestic lending including much money pumped into property developments.

A recent estimate valued Chinese foreign currency reserves at $3.2 trillion. In 2010, nearly two-thirds of China’s reserves were held in US dollar assets such as bonds, equities, money on deposit in US banks and property. But recently there are signs that Chinese investors have been diversifying away from the dollar.

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Unit 4 Macro: Should the UK return to the Gold Standard?

Wednesday, July 04, 2012

A summer hat tip to Alan Fearnley for spotting this excellent teaching resource from the BBC. A recent Radio 4 Analysis programme was devoted to the issue of a return to the Gold Standard (a fixed exchange rate system). It was by Simon Jack who covers economic and financial matters for the Today programme. It is very accessible for Years 12 and 13. Here are the details for people wanting to access content from the programme.

Gold v paper money: Which should we trust more?

Radio 4 Analysis Programme (BBC)

Radio 4 Analysis Facebook Page

Radio 4 Analysis on Twitter (Click Here)

See also: Duncan Weldon (Guardian): Back to the gold standard? It makes no economic sense

 

Eurozone Crisis - Lessons Learnt

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Last week I attended a very interesting lecture at the LSE on the Eurozone crisis, given by Leszek Balcerowicz, a Polish economist who is former chairman of the National Bank of Poland and Deputy Prime Minister.

The following blog outlines his thoughts, but also includes useful links to articles to read.
Using the crisis as a case study will hugely benefit A2 students as it encompasses many of the topics covered in the syllabus.

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Unit 2 Macro: Exchange Rates Glossary

Saturday, May 05, 2012

A short glossary covering concepts relevant to exchange rate economics

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Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate

Tuesday, April 03, 2012

The exchange rate measures the external value of sterling in terms of how much of another currency it can buy. E.g. in July 2011 £1 would buy you $1.65 and Euro 1.17. The daily value of the currency is determined in the foreign exchange markets (FOREX) where billions of $s of currencies are traded every hour. The value of the pound in the currency markets depends in how strong is demand for the currency relative to supply

Many factors affect the external value of one currency against another and one of these factors is the level of interest rates in a country compared to other economies. Money moves around the world economy seeking the best risk-adjusted rate of return. The rate of interest available on deposit in the banking system of a particular country is a factor that might drive what are known as “hot money” flows into and out of a particular currency.

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Unit 4 Macro: Floating and Managed Floating Exchange Rates

Monday, April 02, 2012

Distinguish between a fixed and a managed floating exchange rate system

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Unit 4 Macro: Exchange Rate Economics - Where next for the US Dollar?

Saturday, December 31, 2011

Is the US dollar going to be knocked off its perch as the only true global currency? Professor Barry Eichengreen, the author of Exhorbitant Privelege argues that there are strong reasons to believe that the US dollars’ position in the world financial system will decline in the years ahead.

The US dollar has been for many years the world’s most powerful currencies but this power seems to be waning as other currencies rise in significance and the US economy struggles to recover from their financial and economic crisis and the fiscal challenge. Eichengreen argues that there will be three truly global currencies going forward - the dollar, the Euro and the remnimbi.

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The Return of Protectionism?

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

The US senate has pushed through the bill which aims to punish China for allegedly undervaluing its currency. Is passed into law it would allow Washington to impose tariffs on imports in order to protect its domestic industries. The role and impacts of tariffs and other forms of protectionism form a big part of the ‘international trade’ section of most Economics courses and this article could be a good starting point for those discussions.

Unit 4 Macro: USA edges closer to naming China as a “Currency Manipulator”

Tuesday, October 04, 2011

The U.S came closer to finally calling the Chinese a currency manipulator and retaliating in the new round of protectionism fears. A good summary of the key issues here.

Zondle Game: Currencies of the World

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Here is a ten question quiz using Zondle focusing on currencies around the world.

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Chinese inward investment in the London property market

Sunday, June 12, 2011

In mainland China, authorities have put restrictions on property speculators to dampen the market, while in Hong Kong prices have risen by 70% in less than two years. But the 25% depreciation of sterling over the last two years makes the London property market a real draw for property investors from China. Sky News reports that one in three of buyers of new properties in London come from China and Hong Kong, mainly in the £400,000 - £1mn bracket, either seeking accommodation for their children studying in London or simply an investment. If - or when - the sterling/dollar exchange rate recovers, their return will be enhanced by the increased return they could get when they take their money out of the UK market again.

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Government boost for UK trade

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

“The only way”, says William Hague, “to increase our national prosperity and secure our growth for our economy, is through trade, and our Embassies play a vital role in supporting British business.” Therefore the Foreign Office announced today that they are opening five new Embassies and many Consulates, from China and India to El Salvador and South Sudan. This two minute clip from the Foreign Secretary’s speech to the House of Commons today could make a good lesson starter for a revision session on trade, the capital account, comparative advantage, government intervention for competitive advantage, and so on.

International Economic Indicators

Tuesday, April 05, 2011

I am encouraging my A2 pupils to make better use of macroeconomic data to support their points. I have found the TradingEconomics website very useful for providing an up-to-date selection of indicators for a wide range of countries.

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AS Macro Key Term: Expansionary Monetary Policy

Monday, April 04, 2011

An expansionary monetary policy (also known as a relaxation of monetary policy) means an attempt to use monetary policy to boost or reflate aggregate demand, output and jobs.

Typically this involves a central bank cutting official policy interest rates. It might also involve a relaxation of credit controls and in some countries, Quantitative Easing has been used involving the creation of new money by the Central Bank to purchase debt from banks and boost their capacity to lend to individuals and businesses.

The Bank of England cut official policy rates from 5.5% in the early autumn of 2008 to 0.5% in February 2009 in a bid to stabilise confidence and demand during the descent into recession. Quantitative easing worth £200bn (or 12% of UK GDP) has also been used to provide an extra flow of funds in the UK banking system in a bid to unfreeze credit supply and support an economic recovery.

A fall (depreciation) in the exchange rate is also an expansionary monetary policy

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Pacific Peso Reaches 29 Year High!

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

For a currency that used to have the tag of the “Pacific Peso”, these are heady days for the Australian dollar. The external value of the dollar has reached a 29-year high as the Aussie dollar continues to appreciate on the global currency markets. Our Timetric charts follow the Australian dollar against the US dollar and also sterling.

This is a good mini case study on the factors that determine the value of a currency when it is allowed to float freely in foreign exchange markets

1/ The Australian economy is growing relatively strongly - increasing the expected returns from foreign investment in the economy

2/ Policy interest rates are relatively high (4.75%) - attracting inflows of hot money - short term banking flows that seek the best risk-adjusted rate of return

3/ Trade - the Australian economy has enjoyed a resurgence in the value of exports, notably from selling minerals and liquid natural gas to fast-growing developing countries in Asia

4/ Changing sentiment in the market - foreign exchange market speculators seem to be buying the Australian dollar as a safe haven investment instead of Japanese Yen

In simple terms the expected yield to investors prepared to buy Australian dollars is pretty high - for example compared to that on offer in Japan. This is causing a strong market demand for the Australian dollar

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