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It isn’t supposed to be like this. The 'upside' of the recession and financial crisis was a steep depreciation in the value of sterling. That should have made our exports cheaper and imports dearer, thereby helping the UK to close its huge current account deficit. But as the graph above shows, it just hasn’t happened.read more...»
On the World Bank twitter account, President Jim Kim is quoted as saying that "Properly managed, new minerals wealth could transform Africa’s development." Back in June 2013, a new report from the African Progress Panel looked at this important issue and set out an agenda for maximising Africa’s natural resource wealth and using it to improve well-being.
My own students have been researching the economics of natural resources and whether they can be a blessing and/or a curse to countries seeking sustained growth and development. I just wanted to share one or two of these essays with you because I was delighted with the depth of the independent research on show and the quality of evaluation in their arguments.read more...»
China’s track record on using its currency as a tool for manipulating its international competitiveness has been well documented, especially during the period of 1995-2005, where it was pegged at 8.28 RMB to the USD.
However, adopting such strict policies on the exchange rate, leads to the Impossible Trinity / Trilemma - that is, that it is not possible for a country to have all three of the following at the same time:
- A fixed exchange rate
- Free movement of capital
- An independent monetary policy
India is Asia's third largest economy but it is experiencing an economic slowdown with the rate of economic growth dipping to the lowest level in more than a decade.
The economy is suffering from a persistent trade deficit (worsened by a fall in exports), together with high rates of inflation and a sharply depreciating currency (the rupee). Billions of dollars of currency have been taken out of the economy by worried investors - this is known as capital flight.
Consumer demand for goods and services is being hit by rising prices as the cost of imports surges and other prices head higher too. Onion prices for example have more than trebled.
This BBC news video looks at the weakening of economic growth in India. Can India put in place economic reforms and policies to return the economy to the growth rate needed to sustain the improvement in living standards that has occurred since the early 1990s?read more...»
The main financial headlines in Mumbai recently have centred on the continued fall in the value of the Indian Rupee- now down by over 20% against the dollar in the last month. But what causes a currency to fall in value so sharply and so quickly?read more...»
The headline on the BBC website this afternoon is "Pound falls after surprise dip in inflation". It is important that students taking the A2 economics papers next month are able to give current figures for the macroeconomic indicators, so they should take note of today's CPI inflation figure for April, which is down to 2.4% from 2.8%.
They should also note the reasons - weaker commodity prices and oil in particular, with petrol and diesel prices contributing half of the drop in inflation. Slow earnings growth is also expected to contribute to the outlook for inflation remaining closer to the 2% target than it has been since the end of 2009 - which also suggests that the remaining inflation is not due to demand-pull pressures, but to cost-push.
But can they explain why and how the announcement of a lower rate of inflation has led to a weaker pound? It is not enough, in an essay, simply to state that this cause-and-effect has taken place; in order to gain good marks for analysis, it is essential to trace the process by which one leads to the other. This article from Reuters should give the clues that they need to fill the gaps on the table below ...
This week, I’ve been revising exchange rate policies with my Year 13 Economics class. This is a hot topic in Thailand as the Baht recently hit a 17 year high against the dollar.
The recent debacle in Cyprus has essentially been shrugged off by the markets. The European Central Bank vigorously asserts the crisis in the Euro zone is over. So why is there continued unease about the financial viability of countries such as Spain and Portugal, a morass into which even the French are now being dragged?
Economic theory helps us understand a bit more about why this is the case. One thing which the last few years in Europe have shown very starkly is the massive difference between debt which is denominated in nominal terms and that which is in real terms. Nobel Laureate Chris Sims makes the point clearly in his recently published Presidential Address to the American Economic Association.read more...»
This 10-question revision quiz focuses on exchange rates.
Here is a selection of resources on the Cyprus banking crisis and the controversial bail-in of uninsured large depositors. Particular credit to the team at Saxo Bank for an excellent info-graphicread more...»
This article gives the opportunity for some neat cause-and-effect analysis. The cause is data from the ONS which shows that manufacturing output fell by 1.5% in January, following a 0.9% rise in December. The effect? Sterling has fallen to another low against the dollar. However the chain of argument which links this to the fall in manufacturing data is missing, as if often the case in students' essays, and which tends to cost them valuable analysis marks in exams.
Aggregate Demand may be stimulated by an increase in exports. Ha-Joon Chang, Author of the best seller, 23 Things They Don’t Tell You About Capitalism considers reasons in a short article for The Guardian why this hasn't happened after Sterling had fallen against other major trading economies. " Compared with ...2007, the pound has been devalued about 30% against the dollar, 50% against the yen, and 20% against the struggling euro. Yet despite the huge incentive to export created by such devaluation, Britain is still running trade deficits because it has lost the productive capacity to respond."
It may help students consider plausible policies to reduce its trade deficit, a macroeconomic goal overlooked in arguments over fiscal and monetary policies to control inflation or output. Finally it may aid evaluation, how different are the most pressing short and long term macroeconomic challengers facing UK governments.
Link to most trade figures.
This is great for understanding key shifts in global trade and investment. The Economist offers this short video on the rising prominence of Chinese money in property and currency markets and FDI from Chinese businesses within the EU.read more...»
Are you following important macroeconomic developments in Japan? The new government of Shinzo Abe is reforming monetary policy - including a change to the inflation target - and undertaking more aggressive fiscal measures. Will it work in lifting the Japanese economy to a higher growth plane after two decades and more of sluggish growth and the debilitating effects of price deflation?read more...»
Mark Austen considers whether the UK economy has on balance benefited from being outside of the Euro Area in recent yearsread more...»
Evaluating the UK’s macro performance outside of the Euro Zone
- Decision made in 2003 that the UK would remain outside
of the single currency
- UK remains a full member of the single market
- Supportive of further EU enlargement but distanced from deeper fiscal / banking intregration
Crucial question both in the short and medium term is whether non-participation in the Euro makes a significant difference to key macro outcomes
- Real GDP growth, estimated Trend growth (LRAS)
- Core CPI inflation and inflation expectations
- Employment and unemployment rates
- Trade balances (with EU and beyond)
- Trends in relative productivity and per capita incomes
An updated glossary of key terms for AS macroread more...»
I was told off this week by my students for using McDonald's as an example to illustrate my point yet again. In fact it was the second week on the trot that I was reprimanded as they told me previously that I was always peppering my conversation with Latin phrases "'cos it makes you sound more clever."
"No I don't," I replied - I've told my students a million times not to exaggerate. The offending example came as I was attempting to explain how fatty foods (especially those from the exalted temple of the Golden Arches) were a demerit good. I thought about it for a little while and realised that two weeks ago I'd told them about the use of 'stars' to motivate McDonald's staff and their extensive training programmes when we discussed labour productivity. I'd also mentioned them when we discussed possible issues relating to economies of scale and the fact that a homogenised world can lead to less choice (a weak argument in their view - a McDonald's in every town sounded like a wonderful idea) and discussed the use of persuasive advertising as an example of non-price competition. They were right, I seemed to be talking about McDonald's all the time - and I'm a vegetarian!
"Mea culpa," I confessed.read more...»
Dutch Disease was first coined in 1977 by The Economist in reference to the decline in the manufacturing sector in the Netherlands after the discovery of a large natural gas field in 1959. It is a phenomenon that arises when exploitation in the exporting of natural resources leads to an appreciation in the value of the currency of a country thus making its exports less competitive internationally. An increase in the revenues from natural resources pushes the value of a nation’s currency higher compared to other countries. This directly impacts the trade balance of that country as exports seem comparatively more expensive and thus less competitive. Out of all the sectors this has the greatest impact on the manufacturing sector.
The Chinese renminbi is not yet as recognisable as the US dollar or the Euro but with China's continued growth and rising influence as a major global economic power, their domestic currency is becoming more widely used when settling accounts in trade in goodsand services. In this new Financial Times video Denise Law explores the benefits of using renminbi in trade even though the renminbi is not yet fully-convertible in world foreign exchange markets.read more...»
Have a guess at the price tag (measured in US dollars) of a large margarita pizza in the comfortable middle-class environment of San Paulo in Brazil? Would you expect it to be less or more expensive than say a home delivered pizza to your house from leading UK business Dominos?
The rise in foreign currency reserves is largely the result of China’s enormous trade surpluses but also the consequence of intervention in currency markets by the Chinese central bank. To manage the value of the exchange rate it buys dollars and sells Yuan. China uses a large slice of their currency reserves to finance overseas investment including the role of Sovereign Wealth Funds to invest in developed and emerging countries including many in Africa. A rise in foreign currency reserves increases the money supply and has led to a surge in domestic lending including much money pumped into property developments.
A recent estimate valued Chinese foreign currency reserves at $3.2 trillion. In 2010, nearly two-thirds of China’s reserves were held in US dollar assets such as bonds, equities, money on deposit in US banks and property. But recently there are signs that Chinese investors have been diversifying away from the dollar.read more...»
A summer hat tip to Alan Fearnley for spotting this excellent teaching resource from the BBC. A recent Radio 4 Analysis programme was devoted to the issue of a return to the Gold Standard (a fixed exchange rate system). It was by Simon Jack who covers economic and financial matters for the Today programme. It is very accessible for Years 12 and 13. Here are the details for people wanting to access content from the programme.
Radio 4 Analysis on Twitter (Click Here)
See also: Duncan Weldon (Guardian): Back to the gold standard? It makes no economic sense
Last week I attended a very interesting lecture at the LSE on the Eurozone crisis, given by Leszek Balcerowicz, a Polish economist who is former chairman of the National Bank of Poland and Deputy Prime Minister.
The following blog outlines his thoughts, but also includes useful links to articles to read.
Using the crisis as a case study will hugely benefit A2 students as it encompasses many of the topics covered in the syllabus.
A short glossary covering concepts relevant to exchange rate economicsread more...»
The exchange rate measures the external value of sterling in terms of how much of another currency it can buy. E.g. in July 2011 £1 would buy you $1.65 and Euro 1.17. The daily value of the currency is determined in the foreign exchange markets (FOREX) where billions of $s of currencies are traded every hour. The value of the pound in the currency markets depends in how strong is demand for the currency relative to supply
Many factors affect the external value of one currency against another and one of these factors is the level of interest rates in a country compared to other economies. Money moves around the world economy seeking the best risk-adjusted rate of return. The rate of interest available on deposit in the banking system of a particular country is a factor that might drive what are known as “hot money” flows into and out of a particular currency.read more...»
Distinguish between a fixed and a managed floating exchange rate systemread more...»
Is the US dollar going to be knocked off its perch as the only true global currency? Professor Barry Eichengreen, the author of Exhorbitant Privelege argues that there are strong reasons to believe that the US dollars’ position in the world financial system will decline in the years ahead.
The US dollar has been for many years the world’s most powerful currencies but this power seems to be waning as other currencies rise in significance and the US economy struggles to recover from their financial and economic crisis and the fiscal challenge. Eichengreen argues that there will be three truly global currencies going forward - the dollar, the Euro and the remnimbi.read more...»
The US senate has pushed through the bill which aims to punish China for allegedly undervaluing its currency. Is passed into law it would allow Washington to impose tariffs on imports in order to protect its domestic industries. The role and impacts of tariffs and other forms of protectionism form a big part of the ‘international trade’ section of most Economics courses and this article could be a good starting point for those discussions.
The U.S came closer to finally calling the Chinese a currency manipulator and retaliating in the new round of protectionism fears. A good summary of the key issues here.
Here is a ten question quiz using Zondle focusing on currencies around the world.read more...»
In mainland China, authorities have put restrictions on property speculators to dampen the market, while in Hong Kong prices have risen by 70% in less than two years. But the 25% depreciation of sterling over the last two years makes the London property market a real draw for property investors from China. Sky News reports that one in three of buyers of new properties in London come from China and Hong Kong, mainly in the £400,000 - £1mn bracket, either seeking accommodation for their children studying in London or simply an investment. If - or when - the sterling/dollar exchange rate recovers, their return will be enhanced by the increased return they could get when they take their money out of the UK market again.read more...»
“The only way”, says William Hague, “to increase our national prosperity and secure our growth for our economy, is through trade, and our Embassies play a vital role in supporting British business.” Therefore the Foreign Office announced today that they are opening five new Embassies and many Consulates, from China and India to El Salvador and South Sudan. This two minute clip from the Foreign Secretary’s speech to the House of Commons today could make a good lesson starter for a revision session on trade, the capital account, comparative advantage, government intervention for competitive advantage, and so on.
I am encouraging my A2 pupils to make better use of macroeconomic data to support their points. I have found the TradingEconomics website very useful for providing an up-to-date selection of indicators for a wide range of countries.read more...»
An expansionary monetary policy (also known as a relaxation of monetary policy) means an attempt to use monetary policy to boost or reflate aggregate demand, output and jobs.
Typically this involves a central bank cutting official policy interest rates. It might also involve a relaxation of credit controls and in some countries, Quantitative Easing has been used involving the creation of new money by the Central Bank to purchase debt from banks and boost their capacity to lend to individuals and businesses.
The Bank of England cut official policy rates from 5.5% in the early autumn of 2008 to 0.5% in February 2009 in a bid to stabilise confidence and demand during the descent into recession. Quantitative easing worth £200bn (or 12% of UK GDP) has also been used to provide an extra flow of funds in the UK banking system in a bid to unfreeze credit supply and support an economic recovery.
A fall (depreciation) in the exchange rate is also an expansionary monetary policyread more...»
For a currency that used to have the tag of the “Pacific Peso”, these are heady days for the Australian dollar. The external value of the dollar has reached a 29-year high as the Aussie dollar continues to appreciate on the global currency markets. Our Timetric charts follow the Australian dollar against the US dollar and also sterling.
This is a good mini case study on the factors that determine the value of a currency when it is allowed to float freely in foreign exchange markets
1/ The Australian economy is growing relatively strongly - increasing the expected returns from foreign investment in the economy
2/ Policy interest rates are relatively high (4.75%) - attracting inflows of hot money - short term banking flows that seek the best risk-adjusted rate of return
3/ Trade - the Australian economy has enjoyed a resurgence in the value of exports, notably from selling minerals and liquid natural gas to fast-growing developing countries in Asia
4/ Changing sentiment in the market - foreign exchange market speculators seem to be buying the Australian dollar as a safe haven investment instead of Japanese Yen
In simple terms the expected yield to investors prepared to buy Australian dollars is pretty high - for example compared to that on offer in Japan. This is causing a strong market demand for the Australian dollarread more...»
BBC Business News has an excellent report and supporting video which assesses why the Yen has strengthened following the sad disasters besetting Japan.
An example of how financial flows impact on exchange rate volatility. The normal suspect, currency speculation, may not be the major driver here.
Or are speculators ‘gambling’ that repatriation of funds to finance reconstruction means the Yen will rise in value so ‘buy cheap, now’ and ‘sell later, dear’?
And how can the world’s central banks respond? And why?
Much to debate in classread more...»
A set of Timetric charts following currency movements for non-Euro countries against the Euroread more...»
This is an excellent resource for recent developments in the foreign exchange markets and discussions about where sterling might be heading next and the possible macroeconomic effects.
I would have to travel a long way to hear a better and more incisive talk than Mo’s talk at Fulham on Monday about the economics of currency wars. His students are lucky indeed to have such a gifted and authoritative communicator in their classroom! It was fascinating and focused on so many global economic forces that A2 macroeconomists need to have a handle on as their exams loom. Here are some brief notes taken during Mo’s talk and (at the end) a link to a pdf download of Mo’s presentation - full of fantastic supporting charts!read more...»
The BBC produced a nice little graphic this week to go illustrate comparisons between the US and Chinese economies, alongside the talks between President Obama and President Hu Jintao. Relations between the two countries have been strained by issues such as the trade imbalance and China’s growing military might. The figures here give some background to those issues.read more...»
The New Year sees the seventeenth country join the Euro with the arrival of Estonia into the single currency bloc. Read Estonians prepare to join the euro and ditch the kroon The Baltic State with just 1.3 million inhabitants experienced and then suffered an unsustainable inflationary boom in the years immediately after entering the EU in 2004 and that boom came to a spectacular end in 2008.
A hat tip to Brian Rafferty for spotting this super hip hop take on the unspoken currency war between the United States and China. Check out the US-Sino Currency Battle!
This is a great article that starts to open up some of the issues at stake with regard to the solutions to balance of payments deficits and surpluses. It also provides an excellent basis for beginning to evaluate the potential solutions. Currency devaluations create winners and losers, who are the winners and who are the losers? It also explains how governments are trying to influence the value of currencies. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11608719”
Movements in the external value of currencies have direct and indirect effects on plenty of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, exports, output, profits and - ultimately - jobs. This week we have seen the Japanese central bank intervening in the foreign exchange market in an attempt to drive the value of the Yen lower. Japan is struggling to sustain a recovery after the global financial crisis and a weaker currency is seen as a vital part of the attempt to prevent another draining bout of price deflation.
And the long-running dispute between the United States and China about the alleged under-valuation of the Yuan against the US dollar continues to rumble. This BBC news video takes a swing through New Jersey to find trade unions lobbying government for more action on the exchange rate issue.
Back in June the Chinese authorities announced that they were prepared to allow a managed withdrawal of the pegged currency against the US dollar. There has been longstanding pressure from US law-makers that an undervaleud Yuan has given China an artificial competitive advantage in international markets. And that the huge rise in her current account surplus is indicative of an exchange rate that is some distance from a long-run equilibrium level.read more...»
China has taken its first step towards honouring a pledge to let the exchange rate of its currency float more freely. Beijing announced plans on Saturday to make the yuan more flexible, breaking its strict peg to the US dollar. And on Tuesday, for the first time since the pledge, its central bank raised the centre point of the currency’s official trading band.read more...»
Here is an update for revision on Euro issues. Estonia has been accepted into the Euro Zone and will join the single currency in January 2010.
Details here. Estonia is the first of the Baltic States to enter into monetary union. In macroeconomic terms it is a minnow - with economic output of 14 billion euros ($17 billion), Estonia would rank as the euro’s second-smallest economy, ahead of Malta.
The gyrations of currency values in international markets can have far-reaching consequences for short term growth, inflation, employment and living standards. Exchange rates figures in both the AS and A2 macroeconomic syllabus and we have blogged about them extensively over the last year. this blog brings together a selection of articles and presentations that we hope students will find useful in their exam preparation for June 2010.read more...»
Roger Bootle has an excellent article on the lagged effects of a competitive exchange rate in today’s Telegraph. One of his arguments is that the default behaviour of many UK exporters is to take higher profit margins from their overseas sales rather than cutting their prices to boost export volumes. Crucially the impact of a lower currency takes time to show through in the international trade data and this is partly because switching production to countries where the exchange rate is favourable cannot happen overnight .... read this paragraph:
“Where export prices are not cut, this does not necessarily mean that the weaker currency will do no good. It is rather that the benefit will take longer to come through. In response to higher profit margins, firms will have more incentive to sell abroad. In the economic textbooks, selling abroad, or switching from European to Asia markets, is simply a matter of pressing a button. In reality it isn’t like this; sales networks have to be established, modifications to the products or services made; foreign relationships built up. These things do not happen overnight.”
The article reminds us that a more competitive exchange rate helps to re-balance the economy at a time of domestic weakness. But that the benefits of a weaker pound have been diluted by
(i) Supply-side weakness in UK industries (e.g. a lack of some aspects of non-price competitiveness)
(ii) Low demand in key export markets - not least the European Union
(iii) Longer than expected time lags between a fall in the currency and a pick up in export sales
Many exporters have also been held back by problems in accessing trade credit - few importers pay in advance for goods and services sold overseas!
More of the Roger Bootle article can be found here: The competitive pound is one of the few things we have got going for us