Q&A: Are there countries not in recession this year?
The simple answer is yes! Although the world economy is forecast to experience a recession this year (Deutsche Bank have pencilled in a 1.9% contraction in global GDP for 2009 and the G7 nations will see output slump by 4.5%), there will always be countries at different stages of the business cycle and those who for one reason or another manage to avoid the worst of the fall out from the global financial and economic crisis. Using forecasts for 2009 from the economics team at Deutsche Bank here are some of the countries expected to avoid a full-blown recession:
read more...»Investing the proceeds of the oil bonanza
This BBC article focuses on the ways in which the Brazilian government is seeking to use the revenue from oil exports to boost the economy’s long run economic growth potential and reducing poverty. There is a neat line in here about the importance of value added - from moving away from dependence on exporting crude oil to selling derivatives of oil that carry a higher value in world markets. Yet another country looks poised to establish a sovereign wealth fund to manage some of the assets that come from selling black gold to the rest of the world.
Brazil - on course to be a superpower?
The Independent carried an article on the development of the Brazilian economy last Friday - here is the link - the BRIC analysis from Jim O’Neill and his team at Goldman Sachs continues to carry much weight and we tend perhaps to focus too much on China and India!
“The Brazilian stock market, already buoyed by the boom in prices for the country’s commodities and other exports, has surged to a record level this week on news that Standard & Poor’s, the credit rating agency, has declared the country to be “investment grade”. Specifically, that is a stamp of approval on Brazilian government debt, but it is also the culmination of Brazil’s long slog away from financial crisis, hyper-inflation and democratic sclerosis. The country might finally be about to deliver on its promise as an economic power.”
Brazil’s widening wealth gap
Gillian Lacey-Solymar, Business correspondent for BBC Newsnight has a piece on tonight’s show about the rising inequality in Brazil as her economy continues to experience breakneck growth. Expect an excellent video clip to be available from the BBC web site immediately after the Newsnight programme has aired. Excellent for highlighting the links between growth and income and wealth distributio, especially with a tax system that appears to have regressive effects on the lowest income earners.
The Decoupling Debate
The D word - ‘decoupling’ - is at the heart of the debate regarding global economic prospects for 2008 and beyond.
The term refers to the shift by developing economies - and newly industrialising countries in particular - away from dependence on strong demand in the West for their products.
read more...»An Evening with an Inspirational Economist
Halfway through Jim O’Neill’s talk to the Keynes Society last night I realised properly for the first time in several years why I teach economics. There are few subjects that happen in real time, in internet time – and few where there are so many constantly changing issues to confront and events and trends to make sense of. We live in utterly fascinating times, and lying just beneath the surface of so many of the critical economic and geo-political debates is a seismic shift in the global economy’s Teutonic plates. The rise of the BRIC economies and the Next eleven (N-11) was the subject of an inspiring talk by the Managing Director & Head of Global Economic Research at Goldman Sachs.
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