A backward step on the Maldives’ road to democracy?
In development economics one of the issues that can often be a barrier to a country’s development is political instability, and it looks like the Maldives will be my case study this year. Read on to find out why
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Per Capita Incomes
Per capita incomes in China are rising though still low by advanced-nation levels. China ranks at 119 in terms of average incomes, according to World Bank data (per capita incomes, PPP adjusted). But China is now the biggest car market in the world and there has been a huge rise in the sales of luxury goods to China (these products have a strong income elasticity of demand).
China wants to achieve a re-balancing of her growth – towards domestic consumption and away from exports. Another key aim of the plans for the next 5 years is a surge in market-driven entrepreneurial activity. Plus a continued shift towards higher-value, high-knowledge manufactured products.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Focus on India - World’s Cheapest Computer
A few weeks ago came the announcement that an Indian business is finally set to launch the World’s cheapest tablet computer. This laptop device will sell for around 18 times less than the price of an iPad in London! How can a laptop be manufactured for less than $US 40?
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Focus on India - Supply Side Issues
The rapid growth of the India economy has been helped by her economy enjoying a number of supply-side advantages. That said there remain structural supply-side weaknesses that will limit her continued competitiveness and development. This blog looks at the plusses and the minuses.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Focus on India - Economic Growth
This is the first of a short series of blogs focusing on economic growth and development in the Indian economy, Our first blog provides some background data and study videos on India.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Money, Debt and the New World Order
“All money these days is really a form of debt from somewhere else. We know now in 2012 that our debts cannot be repaid in full.”
Philip Coggan from the Economist was on fine form at the LSE last week when he spoke to a packed audience in the new academic building on the subject of his latest book. When trust in the monetary system breaks down we are in a very difficult place and, in a wonderfully broad historical sweep Philip Coggan offered some revealing insights into what a reformed global monetary system might look like in the years ahead.
read more...»France and Flexible Employment
This article could be useful as an illustration of the EU context in relation to employment in general, and flexible employment in particular. Attracting inward FDI is arguably a significant benefit of UK membership of the EU, and one of the advantages which the UK can offer compared to, say, France is relatively flexible employment laws.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Russia Joins the WTO
I am using Russia’s entry to the World Trade Organisation in my teaching on international trade and development this term. It appear to be a significant moment for the global economy. Russia is the last member of the Group of 20 major economies to join, after China gained membership in 2001. Progress towards membership has been delayed by numerous geo-political issues not least the disputes with neighbouring Georgia.
Joining the WTO involves making a commitment to the rules of the international trade system - for Russia as with other new members, this will mean reduced import tariffs, the staged elimination of industrial domestic and export subsidies, and better greater access to foreign companies. Russia will also have to improve adherence to international accounting standards.
* Russia’s average bound tariff will be 7.3 percent for manufactured products (compared with 9.5 percent currently)
* Farm tariffs will be 10.8 percent (compared with 13.2 percent currently)
* Russia commits to zero export subsidies on agricultural products - to end by 2017
* Russia will privatise 100 pct of United Grain Company by 2012
* Russia will introduce duty-free and quota-free provisions for the least developed countries
* Russia will eliminate preferential tariffs for carmakers making large investments in Russian-based production by July 1, 2018
* Russia plans to introduce International Accounting Standards
How would you use a supply and demand diagram to show the impact of a fall in an import tariff?
Russian exports as a share of her GDP has actually been on a declining trend in recent years. Will movements towards trade and foreign investment liberalisation reverse this through trade creation and FDI effects? How can a stronger commitment to becoming an open economy supprot higher living standards over time? What are the risks for Russia of WTO accession?
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: France loses her AAA credit rating
It is perhaps a moment of more political than economic significance, but on Friday 13th January 2012 Standard and Poors, a leading credit rating agency announced that France was losing her triple A (AAA) credit rating for sovereign debt. It was part of a larger downgrading of government bonds among a sizeable chunk of Euro Zone countries, the argument being that plans to achieve deficit reduction lacked credibility. France was downgraded, S&P also lowered the long-term ratings on Austria, Malta, Slovakia, and Slovenia, by one notch. The rating levels for Cyprus, Italy, Portugal and Spain were dropped two notches.
Here is a brief Channel 4 report on the news and some other links to the story. Only four Euro Zone countries now have an AAA rating. Do you know who they are?
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Piracy and Econ Development in Somalia
A new year hat tip to Richard Coulthard from Handsworth Grammar School in Birmingham for spotting this BBC news article on the economic impact of piracy in Somalia. Richard comments that this is just what economic theory would predict after large increases in the money supply but from a quirky angle. Read: Somali piracy ‘boosts Puntland economy’ To access the Chatham House report from this which this news report is drawn, please click here
Beyond the Bike - The Importance of Remittances
Joseph is 29 years old and makes a living selling vehicle parts in the dusty trucker town of Igawu in Southern Tanzania. When he approached me during my breakfast and flashed 2 fresh $100 bills, I was naturally interested to know where they came from. I offered him a ride north to find out…
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Time to Re-Boot the British Economy
This special blog in the Guardian from Professor Danny Quah of the London School of Economics is superb for Unit 4 students taking their papers in June 2012. in “The UK and the eurozone in the shifting global economy” Professor Quah focuses on many of the underlying difficulties in the UK economy. Digging deeper inside the trade data he finds that, focusing on the UK’s 50 largest trading partners in 2009: 56% of our exports go to the 10 slowest-growing economies in that group. We are missing many opportunities to fully embrace trade and investment with faster-growth countries notably in Africa and Asia.
A note for your diaries if you are within reach of London on Monday 23rd January. Martin Wolf from the FT is speaking on The State of the Global Economy in 2012 - an event not to be missed for fans of his writing and insight. He is speaking along with Jean Michel Severino, nspector general at the French Ministry of Finance. Here are the details.
Unit 4 Macro: Economics of Fiscal Deficit Reduction
How far, how fast and in what way should the UK government seek to cut the annual budget deficit and improve the state of public sector finances? These questions continue to be at the centre of a fierce debate among economists.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Competitive Advantage in Trade (Some Videos)
Here is a selection of short video clips that I use when teaching competitive advantage in markets and when introducing the factors that determine the competitiveness of UK producers in global markets. The focus here is on the UK economy but I will add some more videos to the blog as I work my way through this teaching topic.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: UK Bond Yields Reach Record Lows
The yields on UK government issued bonds has been falling steadily in recent months and, as we turned into January 2012, the yield on ten year government debt edged below 2% - when the UK government continues to borrow eye-wateringly large sums, why are bond yields so low?
The yield on a bond is the income received from a fixed-interest bond, calculated as a percentage of the price paid for it. So a ten year bond bought for £10,000 and paying a fixed annual interest of £600 would offer a yield of £600 / £10,000 = 6.0% per annum.
If the market price of a bond rises - for example, it rises from £10,000 to £12,000, the fixed interest remains the same (£600) but the yield will fall. £600 / £12,000 expressed as a percentage = 5%.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: UK Trade Patterns
The Guardian DataBlog has a superb resource here on the patterns of UK exports and imports in 2011. Ideal for printing out and using when introducing international trade. There is more official UK trade data here
Revision Presentation: Economics Evaluation Skills
Here is a short revision presentation on evaluation skills for AS and A2 economics questions which we produced a couple of years ago which might still be useful for the forthcoming exams.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Does Manufacturing Matter?
Vicky Pryce FRSA has a new article on the economic significance of manufacturing industry for UK economic renewal. It is available here from the January 2012 edition of the RSA Journal. In a related article Sir Christopher Frayling FRSA discusses the rise of the Maker Movement.
Back in November 2011 Channel 4 news ran a special on the future for UK manufacturing here is a link to a related video
Unit 4 Macro: Natural Disasters and their Economic Impact
From tsunamis to tornadoes, from droughts to floods, 2011 was a particularly nasty year for natural disasters in many parts of the world. These natural disasters inevitably have demand and supply side effects affecting not just those countries affected but ripple impact across regions and in the broader global economy.
The Al Jazeera news video report below provides a clear overview of some of the major natural climatic shocks of 2011 and could easily be used as an introductory resource to discuss what are some of the micro and macroeconomic effects in both the short and medium term.
These include:
* Effects on the stock of physical capital / infrastructure
* Impact on a country’s human capital
* Effects on commodity prices, export revenues
* Effects on agricultural output, profits, investment, productivity
* Ripple effects on manufacturing industries and energy supply/cost
* Impact on state tax revenues and the costs of re-building and providing emergency financial support
* Effect on the movement of population following extreme climatic events
* Natural disasters and changes in the distribution of income / risk of poverty
This Economist graphic (published in Jan 2012) looks at the human cost of natural disasters and claims that “the world has succeeded in making natural disasters less deadly.”
read more...»AS and A2 Economics - 10 Ways to Improve Evaluation
As students build their revision efforts ahead of the impending A Level Economics units, here is an updated version of my revision document on evaluation skills for AS and A2 economists…
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Video Resources on Unemployment
This blog entry brings together a selection of recent news reports and videos covering the economics of unemployment in the UK and inother countries.
read more...»Exam Technique for Economics - Weesteps to Evaluation
With AS and A2 modules on the horizon, here is a presentation outlines an approach to demonstrating evaluation using the WEESTEPS acronym - the brain-child of one of Paul Bridge’s students at Tiffin School. It is an approach that struck a chord with us all during our Economics revision workshops. The presentation uses a macro topic to illustrate the approach…
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Exchange Rate Economics - Where next for the US Dollar?
Is the US dollar going to be knocked off its perch as the only true global currency? Professor Barry Eichengreen, the author of Exhorbitant Privelege argues that there are strong reasons to believe that the US dollars’ position in the world financial system will decline in the years ahead.
The US dollar has been for many years the world’s most powerful currencies but this power seems to be waning as other currencies rise in significance and the US economy struggles to recover from their financial and economic crisis and the fiscal challenge. Eichengreen argues that there will be three truly global currencies going forward - the dollar, the Euro and the remnimbi.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Development Issues: The Baby Boom in Zambia
In this special report from BBC reporter Fergus Walsh, the rapid population growth in the African country of Zambia is examined. Population growth in the country is so quick that it could perpetuate deep poverty in the country despite relatively fast growth in recent years. In Zambia, the UN predicts that the population could triple by 2050, reaching 100 million by the end of the century.
European Economics: Resources on the CAP
This blog entry will provide a regularly updated set of links to resources to the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy and attempts to reform this contentious and complex system of farm support.
Check below for suggested links
read more...»Resources on Keynes and Hayek
In this blog we are putting together a suite of web-based resources on the clash between supporters of Keynes and Hayek, a debate that have gathered momentum in recent times largely in the wake of the global financial crisis.
read more...»2011 in Review - The US Economy
2011 for the US economy was a year of slow growth and fears of a double-dip recession, but there were some more positive signs as 2011 came to a close.
Can the world’s biggest economy sustain a more durable upturn in activity during 2012? Keep in mind that this coming year will be dominated by the lead-in to the November Presidential election.
read more...»Review of the Year in Economics - Guardian
Larry Elliott from the Guardian provides this excellent overview of key developments in the UK and world economy in 2011.
Unit 4 Macro: Human Capital and Economic Growth
In A2 macroeconomics the underlying causes of economic growth and development and constraints on both of these are covered in more depth. One of the concepts students might be familiar with is that of human capital.
I have always summarised the idea of human capital as being a measure of the overall quality of the human input available to produce goods and services in an economy. The ONS have published a new study on the value of human capital in the UK and they draw on a definition given by the OECD
read more...»The Eurozone Crisis Explained (again!)
A superb, relatively simple, explanation of the Eurozone debt crisis with good data on historical compliance to the ‘Stability and Growth Pact’. Plenty data for students to get their teeth into. How significant is the level of government debt?
